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Moose Milligan

If Elias doesn't select Rutschman...what would your reaction be?

What would your reaction be if Elias doesn't take Rutschman?  

175 members have voted

  1. 1. What would your reaction be if Elias doesn't take Rutschman?

    • Nuclear meltdown.
    • I've been happy with Elias so far, but this is a BIG strike one.
    • I fully trust Elias, Sig, the analytics team and that they made the right choice, even if I don't understand it.
    • Who's Rutschman? (Just kidding)


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2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Hasn't the gap narrowed significantly in outcomes between college draftees and high school?  30 years ago you were waaaay better off drafting a college player.  But 3-4 years ago I'm sure I read that there was now little or no difference in 6-year value between the two.

 

2 hours ago, mdbdotcom said:

Maybe, but I'm skeptical. 

It could be that the average production/value is nearly identical, but there's a higher variance on the HS players, which would make sense.  The truly elite guys often declare early as possible, making up the far right side of the distribution, while there's some far worse outcomes because one is operating with substantially less info (and making more assumptions about maturity, body development, etc.) vs. the college guys.

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On 5/15/2019 at 6:03 PM, BohKnowsBmore said:

 

It could be that the average production/value is nearly identical, but there's a higher variance on the HS players, which would make sense.  The truly elite guys often declare early as possible, making up the far right side of the distribution, while there's some far worse outcomes because one is operating with substantially less info (and making more assumptions about maturity, body development, etc.) vs. the college guys.

Highly rated high school pitchers have been failing at higher rate recently. Most everyone is getting Tommy John surgery not too long after getting drafted. 

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4 minutes ago, atomic said:

Highly rated high school pitchers have been failing at higher rate recently. Most everyone is getting Tommy John surgery not too long after getting drafted. 

Misuse of middle/high school coaches is one the 5 biggest issues I would say MLB needs to solve.

The NFL is, at least by appearances, putting serious pressure on all levels regarding concussions.

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7 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Misuse of middle/high school coaches is one the 5 biggest issues I would say MLB needs to solve.

The NFL is, at least by appearances, putting serious pressure on all levels regarding concussions.

From what I have read it is the focus of MLB scouts on speed of fastball that is ruining these guys.  You have 16 and 17 year old's whose body hasn't fully developed trying to throw 98 mph. 

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7 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Misuse of middle/high school coaches is one the 5 biggest issues I would say MLB needs to solve.

The NFL is, at least by appearances, putting serious pressure on all levels regarding concussions.

Add in travel ball coaches.  At least in most High/Middle school leagues there are strict pitch limits and mandatory rest rules.  Travel ball might as well be the Wild West. 

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30 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah.  Not gonna lie, I am gonna be pissed af if Elias picks someone else.  

I think we are lucky that when we get the #1 overall pick there is someone so much higher rated than the other top guys. It seems like we have the opportunity to pick a cant-miss guy.  

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40 minutes ago, atomic said:

Highly rated high school pitchers have been failing at higher rate recently. Most everyone is getting Tommy John surgery not too long after getting drafted. 

Higher rate than what?  I'd like to see the data.  Pitchers have been failing at a high rate for a long time.

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15 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Misuse of middle/high school coaches is one the 5 biggest issues I would say MLB needs to solve.

The NFL is, at least by appearances, putting serious pressure on all levels regarding concussions.

I am sure there is some misuse of pitchers in MS/HS. But, MS/HS baseball has a more balanced scheduling process and the number of games are generally not overwhelming. Travel youth baseball (other sports too) are often way too extreme and do not take into account the players age and what is in the best interest of the child. I see a lot of youth baseball..kids trying to throw curves and other pitches at 9 years old?? Four games over a weekend? Youth Hockey with 60+ games schedules, traveling hundreds of miles in a weekend. There is not only potential physical damage to the child, but there is also social development concerns. Common sense is frequently absent in youth sport.

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2 hours ago, atomic said:

That's an interesting article, and I think it's reasonable to assume max effort pitching is having a negative impact on health.  But they never present any data on how the increased emphasis on velocity has impacted the success rate of high school draftees.  They show data from 2011-14.  But no comparable data from 2000 or 1990 or any other period.  They talk about how 51% of high school pitchers from 2011-14 didn't reach the majors.  But offer no comps to other eras.  A full study would take a lot of work, but here's a few data points.

2000: Seven high school pitchers taken.  Three never appeared in the majors, another just in five games.

1990: Eight high school pitchers.  Two never appeared in the majors, and three others had careers so short they never had a single major league win.

1980: Four high school pitchers. Two never appeared in the majors.

1970: Eight high school pitchers.  Four never played in the majors, and a fifth got into exactly two games.

The failure rate of high school pitchers, as measured by having a major league career of any type, looks like it's always been around 50%.  But today what happens is you get hurt, get TJ surgery, and usually come back.

I'm certainly open to ideas to limit pitcher injuries.  But I haven't seen too many workable ones.  It's very hard to tell players, coaches, teams that throwing hard is a) very effective and b) you shouldn't do it.  In 1920 pitchers paced, but they were allowed to throw endless numbers of pitches and innings, and they often got hurt.  Today they control pitches and innings, but almost require you to throw at 100% all the time.  My solution is to deaden the ball, fatten the bats, and only allow teams to keep eight pitchers on the roster.  They'd almost have to throw at 75% effort. But that doesn't seem to be gaining much traction.

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Hard to believe the draft is only 11 days away.    Looking forward to it!   It’s my wife’s birthday, so I may need to tape the proceedings.   I’m pretty sure that “sorry honey, I know you’d like to go out but I need to watch this!” isn’t going to cut it.   

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4 hours ago, Absltgreek said:

Reading something like this, ups my level of frustration if they don't go this route.  Here's hoping they just KISS it and move on to next pick.

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