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Moose Milligan

If Elias doesn't select Rutschman...what would your reaction be?

What would your reaction be if Elias doesn't take Rutschman?  

175 members have voted

  1. 1. What would your reaction be if Elias doesn't take Rutschman?

    • Nuclear meltdown.
    • I've been happy with Elias so far, but this is a BIG strike one.
    • I fully trust Elias, Sig, the analytics team and that they made the right choice, even if I don't understand it.
    • Who's Rutschman? (Just kidding)


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2 minutes ago, atomic said:

Did Appel end up getting full slot from the Astros?

Not even close. 6.35MM, slot was 7.79MM.

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9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If they take Witt I won't be happy.  If they take Witt and give him anything close to slot I'll be really unhappy.

What if they take Witt pay under slot but don't use the money they saved. 

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3 minutes ago, jrobb21613 said:

Why? What is that you don’t like about Witt? 

I'm not comfortable taking a position player 1-1 if he has questions about his hit tool.

He is also old for his draft class but that is a secondary issue.

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5 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Not even close. 6.35MM, slot was 7.79MM.

This is one of the reasons I thought it was really stupid to take Appel.  He didn't sign the previous year because he was saying he wanted overslot money so teams didn't pick until the Pirates did at # 8 and then he went back to college.  Seems like a guy is so concerned about getting every penny before he played a game in the minors isn't the type that has much confidence in himself. 

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I was was curious to know how Rutchmans high school stars compared to Witts. They are listed below Adley’s on top Witts below.

Games Played 53

Batting Totals

Batting Average .405
Plate Appearances 191
At Bats 148
Runs 50
Hits 60
Runs Batted In 36
Doubles 13
Triples 1
Home Runs 2
Sacrifice Fly 2
Sacrifice Bunt 2
Base on Balls 35
Strike Outs 15
Hit by Pitch 4
Reached on Error 8
Fielders Choice 2
Left on Base 5
On Base Percentage .524
Slugging Percentage .547
On Base Plus Slugging Percentage 1.071

 

Games Played 45

Batting Totals

Batting Average .521
Plate Appearances 171
At Bats 144
Runs 74
Hits 75
Runs Batted In 60
Doubles 17
Triples 9
Home Runs 16
Sacrifice Fly 2
Sacrifice Bunt 0
Base on Balls 24
Strike Outs 12
Hit by Pitch 1
Reached on Error 4
Fielders Choice 5
Left on Base 54
On Base Percentage .585
Slugging Percentage 1.097
On Base Plus Slugging Percentage 1.682

 

Im not sure how much weight it carries or any but Witt sure had the much better High School career and I’m sure some will use his age of being older then peers as an excuse but the high school numbers aren’t even close. Witt head and shoulders above.

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Just now, atomic said:

This is one of the reasons I thought it was really stupid to take Appel.  He didn't sign the previous year because he was saying he wanted overslot money so teams didn't pick until the Pirates did at # 8 and then he went back to college.  Seems like a guy is so concerned about getting every penny before he played a game in the minors isn't the type that has much confidence in himself. 

I mean, by all means get what you can, it is a supremely unfair system for players insofar as they can't earn anywhere near their open market value and there are no guarantees in baseball, especially for pitchers. That said, the system is not set up for a player to get full slot at 1-1 and the Orioles would be silly to sign anyone at full slot 1-1, when, if they failed to sign, they would get the second pick next year.

They can negotiate with various players if they see similar value  and the opportunity for over-slots later on, but full slot at 1-1 is illogical.

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3 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I mean, by all means get what you can, it is a supremely unfair system for players insofar as they can't earn anywhere near their open market value and there are no guarantees in baseball, especially for pitchers. That said, the system is not set up for a player to get full slot at 1-1 and the Orioles would be silly to sign anyone at full slot 1-1, when, if they failed to sign, they would get the second pick next year.

They can negotiate with various players if they see similar value  and the opportunity for over-slots later on, but full slot at 1-1 is illogical.

The one think Rutschman does have is the Diamondback's huge pool.  If he asks for slot or above slot the D-backs have the money to do it at #16.

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2 hours ago, clapdiddy said:

If signing the second-best guy frees up money for us to acquire talent later in the draft, I'm all for it.    I would like Rutschman, but we need as much good talent in the organization as we can get.

I feel that is a terrible way to go about things.  The 1-1 pick is too important not to take the best player available.  

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20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The one think Rutschman does have is the Diamondback's huge pool.  If he asks for slot or above slot the D-backs have the money to do it at #16.

He is never making it to #16. If the Orioles don't select him he will be picked at #2 by the Royals.  He can say he won't sign but more risk to him than it would be to the Royals. 

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44 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

To answer my own question, I am stuck between nuclear meltdown and trusting the process.  

But I went with nuclear meltdown because that's more fun.

You're probably not alone and schadenfreude will abound watching it all unfold here.   Having said that, it's fairly certain that we won't know for a few years yet if Elias truly made the right call.  

30npej.jpg

  • Haha 1

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39 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

 

I don't think it is possible for a player at 1-1 to get full slot. It isn't like he is going to sit out a year and go 1-0, and he won't get $625K overslot (the difference between 1-1 and 1-2) if he goes 1-2.

My guess is there is at least one team (Arizona) and maybe more that would be willing to get near slot 1-1 slot for AR - so I don't think we can low-ball him too much.  Still, it is not like he would have too many options if we took AR at 1-1 and offered him $7.0M and told him to take it or go back to school for a year.  The number of players who have passed on $4+M in signing bonus offers in draft history is a very low number.

For me, AR is a clear cut #1 overall talent-wise.  I certainly understand the concept of maximizing the draft haul, but having a young catcher perform at a plus to near all-star to possibly all-star level is too much of a building block to pass up for me.  I do trust Elias, but I would be upset if we passed on AR, but not nuclear meltdown pissed.  It would be a pretty big whiff if we went with Witt and saved $ and then Witt flopped and AR succeeded.  

I will remind that the success of this 2019 draft will not be known for years.  I remember the good riddance when Joe Jordan left and since then Jake A took off, Nick Delmonico is in the majors, Britton had a strong Orioles career, Givens is still with us, etc.  Christian Walker was in GaryR's first draft class and look how long it took him to succeed in MLB.

Don't look at gift horse in the mouth - take AR.

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I fully trust Elias to pick the best player in the draft.  I believe that the best player is Adler Rutschman.  So if he doesn’t pick Rutschman, I’ll go into nuclear meltdown after all!

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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

If they take Witt I won't be happy.  If they take Witt and give him anything close to slot I'll be really unhappy.

If they take Witt and try to get him to sign under slot, what is the chance that he would balk and head off to a JC?

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