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El_Duderino

Trade Value Power Rankings

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9 hours ago, El_Duderino said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/06/top-50-trade-candidates-2019-mlb-trade-deadline.html

MLBTR has 4 Os in their top 50...

17. Givens

20. Cashner

25. Mancini

35. Villar

 

We’re on pace for 47 wins. Realistically we’re looking at the same next year, and I don’t see us magically turning it on in 2021. 2022, 2023 are likely the soonest that we will be back to “competing”.

I’d trade as many players on are current roster for A ball types like we got last year in Carmona and Encarnacion. The heck with players like Luis Ortiz, Evan Phillips, Josh Rogers, Dillon Tate types. All they are going to do is have low ceilings and bog down are 40 man. Plus with having the #1 waiver priority in the AL for the foreseeable future, we should be able to pick up similar talents off the waiver wire. 

What hurts the market this year is that the AL is being dominated by the big 3 of the AL East so that really dampens the WC chase.  HOU is HOU and will only upgrade with top flight talent.  I don’t think Clev and Tex want to become buyers to chase a playoff spot.  I don’t think any of our guys upgrade anyone on NY, Bos, TB, and HOU.

Nobody wants to trade Mancini, but even looking around MLB, offensive numbers are up. Heck, Ji Man Choi has a .799 OPS for TB.  I doubt they’d back up the brinks truck for Mancini.

Bundy is our best trade chip, maybe we get back a better than Gausman package because we’re not attaching O’day. Cashner might bring back two low end top 30 guys.  Villar maybe 1 if a contender needs a SS.  Some team with an already stacked pen could see Givens as a spare part/wild card type and make a deal. They wouldn’t have to rely on him but he could be dominant. Idk what that is worth. 

Overall, I think it’s a “Buyers Market” and I don’t even know how we’d fill out a rotation without Bundy and Cashner. We can’t even do that now.  

 

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I don't know if someone will back up the Brinks truck or not, but  I think his defense makes people underestimate his offense. Baseball Reference (I assumed it was up to date) lists Mancini as 1st in Total Bases, 2nd in Extra Base Hits, 5th in Batting Average and Runs Created, 6th in Runs scores and Adjusted OPS Plus, 8th in slugging and adjusted batting wins and 9th in OPS. (All AL) If a team needs a DH or 1B, why wouldn't they want him?  Offensively he's at 2.1 war. Please note the above includes both counting stats and averages and items like BA which get sneered at.  No apologies. 

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35 minutes ago, Pheasants said:

I don't know if someone will back up the Brinks truck or not, but  I think his defense makes people underestimate his offense. Baseball Reference (I assumed it was up to date) lists Mancini as 1st in Total Bases, 2nd in Extra Base Hits, 5th in Batting Average and Runs Created, 6th in Runs scores and Adjusted OPS Plus, 8th in slugging and adjusted batting wins and 9th in OPS. (All AL) If a team needs a DH or 1B, why wouldn't they want him?  Offensively he's at 2.1 war. Please note the above includes both counting stats and averages and items like BA which get sneered at.  No apologies. 

I’m waiting to see if his offense holds up.   He had a great first half in 2017, then faded.   Had a lousy first half of 2018, then recovered to a degree in the second half.    Now he’s been very good for nearly a half season this year.    We’ll see if he maintains it.    I certainly agree his WAR would look better if he wasn’t playing OF.

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11 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We’re on pace for 47 wins. Realistically we’re looking at the same next year, and I don’t see us magically turning it on in 2021. 2022, 2023 are likely the soonest that we will be back to “competing”.

I’d trade as many players on are current roster for A ball types like we got last year in Carmona and Encarnacion. The heck with players like Luis Ortiz, Evan Phillips, Josh Rogers, Dillon Tate types. All they are going to do is have low ceilings and bog down are 40 man. Plus with having the #1 waiver priority in the AL for the foreseeable future, we should be able to pick up similar talents off the waiver wire. 

What hurts the market this year is that the AL is being dominated by the big 3 of the AL East so that really dampens the WC chase.  HOU is HOU and will only upgrade with top flight talent.  I don’t think Clev and Tex want to become buyers to chase a playoff spot.  I don’t think any of our guys upgrade anyone on NY, Bos, TB, and HOU.

Nobody wants to trade Mancini, but even looking around MLB, offensive numbers are up. Heck, Ji Man Choi has a .799 OPS for TB.  I doubt they’d back up the brinks truck for Mancini.

Bundy is our best trade chip, maybe we get back a better than Gausman package because we’re not attaching O’day. Cashner might bring back two low end top 30 guys.  Villar maybe 1 if a contender needs a SS.  Some team with an already stacked pen could see Givens as a spare part/wild card type and make a deal. They wouldn’t have to rely on him but he could be dominant. Idk what that is worth. 

Overall, I think it’s a “Buyers Market” and I don’t even know how we’d fill out a rotation without Bundy and Cashner. We can’t even do that now.  

 

Can we have a fan pitch night? Everyone in the door gets a chance to pitch with a lucky fan being drawn for each batter faced.

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Trade Bait Thermometer

Hot - Mancini, Villar, Cashner - Mancini because of performance, the other two because of contracts finishing up at season's end. Mancini has the most value obviously.  I'd expect a single Top 30 guy for Villar and Cashner.

Mild - Givens, Bundy - Let's hope they perform better.  Could probably be traded on potential alone, but might not get the return we'd hope for unless they put up better numbers.

Luke Warm - Armstrong, Bleier, Alberto - Bleier has pitched better as of late.  Armstrong is already 2+ service years in and has performed well with us, so it will be interesting to see what Elias does with him if he continues to perform. Same with Alberto who is showing a solid average and versatility in the field.  Wouldn't get a ton in return; perhaps a minor piece.

 

That's all I see on this roster as potential trade bait.  Unless Elias wants to do prospect for prospect trades with our AAA/AAAA guys.

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18 hours ago, Frobby said:

https://www.pitcherlist.com/going-deep-the-relative-value-of-fip-xfip-and-siera/

Truth is, none of them are all that predictive.    Slightly better than ERA, but not enough to be really worth the bother IMO.   

FIP isn't supposed to be predictive. FIP merely demonstrates how the pitcher has done in the things that they can control. Also,  in reference to the post you quoted suggesting xFIP is better than FIP, xFIP is very flawed in that it assumes that all pitchers will give up a 10.5 HR/FB%. While certain pitchers due to both ability, pitch types and pitching style will consistently put up lower or higher HR/FB%. Personally I prefer SIERA, but FIP is a very nice tool to  get a better idea than ERA of how a pitcher actually has pitched. With that said, FIP is also flawed in that it doesn't account for pitchers who induce weak contact as a skill like Kyle Hendricks.

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1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

FIP isn't supposed to be predictive. FIP merely demonstrates how the pitcher has done in the things that they can control. Also,  in reference to the post you quoted suggesting xFIP is better than FIP, xFIP is very flawed in that it assumes that all pitchers will give up a 10.5 HR/FB%. While certain pitchers due to both ability, pitch types and pitching style will consistently put up lower or higher HR/FB%. Personally I prefer SIERA, but FIP is a very nice tool to  get a better idea than ERA of how a pitcher actually has pitched. With that said, FIP is also flawed in that it doesn't account for pitchers who induce weak contact as a skill like Kyle Hendricks.

If I remember Moneyball correctly, the whole point of FIP is it was supposed to me more predictive of future ERA than actual ERA is.   That was why it was considered such a brilliant breakthrough.    But I’m going off my memory of a book I read nearly ten years ago.  

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On 5/17/2019 at 9:39 AM, MongoBoy said:

Trade away core players to get garbage in return.  What a concept.

If they trade away Cashner and Bundy I don’t know how they get through the season. Even with a triple A shuttle there are only so many pitchers you can use to cover the  innings that need to be pitched. If you replace them with guys who won’t make it to,the fourth inning I am not sure how you survive.

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How about Mancini to TB for RHP Shane Baz?

Just picking a name that we should be familiar with from the Gausman rumors last year. MLB has Baz as their #97 prospect and #8 in TB’s system. 😢

Baz would go nicely with Hall and Rodriguez as top end SP prospects. 

I know not a lot of people won’t  like this but we’re just such a long way from contention. Obviously. Maybe TB could kick in AAA 1B Nate Lowe(#9 TB) or their comp pick. 

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7 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

How about Mancini to TB for RHP Shane Baz?

Just picking a name that we should be familiar with from the Gausman rumors last year. MLB has Baz as their #97 prospect and #8 in TB’s system. 😢

Baz would go nicely with Hall and Rodriguez as top end SP prospects. 

I know not a lot of people won’t  like this but we’re just such a long way from contention. Obviously. Maybe TB could kick in AAA 1B Nate Lowe(#9 TB) or their comp pick. 

Do they need Mancini?  Choi ain't doing half bad and they are stacked at OF/DH.    

If they did want to upgrade, it would be at Catcher.  Maybe Mancini and Sisco for Vidal Brujan, Shane Baz, and Taylor Walls

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20 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

Do they need Mancini?  Choi ain't doing half bad and they are stacked at OF/DH.    

If they did want to upgrade, it would be at Catcher.  Maybe Mancini and Sisco for Vidal Brujan, Shane Baz, and Taylor Walls

Severino 

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2 hours ago, ScGO's said:

Do they need Mancini?  Choi ain't doing half bad and they are stacked at OF/DH.    

If they did want to upgrade, it would be at Catcher.  Maybe Mancini and Sisco for Vidal Brujan, Shane Baz, and Taylor Walls

Just think, we signed Choi to a milb deal and then lost him in the Rule 5 draft to LAA.  DD was onto something.  

Most of the contenders have options at 1B/DH/COF.  Everyone is mashing this year with the juiced balls.  Plus there are more sellers than buyers it appears.  The Yankees already surprisingly beefed up their lineup with EE, even though they have .800 OPS Clint Frazier.  Hopefully, some other team values Mancini now and for the future.  That's why I was thinking TB.  

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On 6/18/2019 at 4:03 PM, Pheasants said:

I don't know if someone will back up the Brinks truck or not, but  I think his defense makes people underestimate his offense. Baseball Reference (I assumed it was up to date) lists Mancini as 1st in Total Bases, 2nd in Extra Base Hits, 5th in Batting Average and Runs Created, 6th in Runs scores and Adjusted OPS Plus, 8th in slugging and adjusted batting wins and 9th in OPS. (All AL) If a team needs a DH or 1B, why wouldn't they want him?  Offensively he's at 2.1 war. Please note the above includes both counting stats and averages and items like BA which get sneered at.  No apologies. 

If you moved him to DH or first base his offensive WAR would go down.

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10 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Just think, we signed Choi to a milb deal and then lost him in the Rule 5 draft to LAA.  DD was onto something.  

Most of the contenders have options at 1B/DH/COF.  Everyone is mashing this year with the juiced balls.  Plus there are more sellers than buyers it appears.  The Yankees already surprisingly beefed up their lineup with EE, even though they have .800 OPS Clint Frazier.  Hopefully, some other team values Mancini now and for the future.  That's why I was thinking TB.  

Eh, he's 7th in the AL in OPS+, so I don't think it's fair to imply he's just some guy who's hitting the same as everyone else.

If we don't get a satisfactory return for him, then there's no burning bridge forcing us to trade him this season.  I still think he works for a team like the Indians who are potentially a playoff team this season, but trailing the Twins significantly (thus they may not be interested in a pure rental).  He would give them a true slugger at 1B/DH at arbitration prices that would be in place for two seasons after Santana's contract is up (in 2020).

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