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orpheus100

Is this team worse than last year?

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I think the one part of this ballclub that is demonstrably worse than last year is the bullpen.   4.76 ERA last year, 61% save rate, -3.64 WPA; 6.17 ERA this year, 53% save rate, -2.54 WPA in less than 1/3 of a season.    If we end up with a worse record than last year, I think the bullpen will be the reason.   

Oh how I long for those 2012-16 bullpens.    

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7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think the one part of this ballclub that is demonstrably worse than last year is the bullpen.   4.76 ERA last year, 61% save rate, -3.64 WPA; 6.17 ERA this year, 53% save rate, -2.54 WPA in less than 1/3 of a season.    If we end up with a worse record than last year, I think the bullpen will be the reason.   

Oh how I long for those 2012-16 bullpens.    

It's bad, but I thought maybe it was historically bad.  Maybe not quite yet (numbers since WWII, which is close enough to all time since pens were embryonic before that):

                                                                                     
Rk    I Team       Split Year   G sOPS+  W  L W-L%  ERA    IP   H   R  HR  BB  SO HBP
1        TBD as Reliever 2007 483   139 21 34 .382 6.16 497.0 605 360  77 250 395  22
2        BOS as Reliever 1987 236   136 19 24 .442 5.45 368.1 439 241  63 178 298   7
3        MON as Reliever 1971 214   135 10 20 .333 4.57 334.2 366 192  40 156 204   7
4        HOU as Reliever 2013 447   135 14 40 .259 4.92 534.0 561 325  85 252 418  22
5        DET as Reliever 2019 176   135 10  7 .588 5.57 179.1 193 119  37  86 153   8
6        WSN as Reliever 2019 178   134  8 12 .400 7.09 152.1 177 126  28  76 158  18
7        CHC as Reliever 1964 255   133  7 16 .304 4.59 358.2 430 200  33 137 200   6
8        CHC as Reliever 1975 298   133 23 25 .479 5.22 420.2 505 276  43 185 237  17
9        SLB as Reliever 1950 188   132 12 18 .400 6.81 358.1 478 303  40 226 129  14
10       BAL as Reliever 2019 158   132  4 11 .267 6.17 204.1 221 146  45  96 196  16
11       NYM as Reliever 1966 288   131 19 21 .475 4.20 469.2 502 255  59 235 276  13
12       HOU as Reliever 1967 293   131 20 29 .408 4.57 423.2 453 241  43 163 318  20
13       KCA as Reliever 1955 255   130 23 21 .523 5.70 482.0 537 341  66 236 192  21
14       MIN as Reliever 1982 244   129 11 30 .268 4.81 483.0 468 276  74 266 315   7
15       DET as Reliever 1989 252   129 24 22 .522 4.51 426.2 442 248  37 247 276  17
16       COL as Reliever 1999 420   129 23 25 .479 5.72 493.2 585 337  78 271 396  18
17       ARI as Reliever 2010 454   129 16 32 .333 5.74 439.0 485 307  62 224 331  22
18       DET as Reliever 2017 510   129 17 28 .378 5.63 528.2 589 350  89 239 465  27
19       PHA as Reliever 1952 137   128 14 12 .538 5.31 276.1 321 183  25 127  82   9
20       SDP as Reliever 1974 352   128 22 17 .564 4.66 509.2 559 292  49 265 310  14
21       TEX as Reliever 1976 196   128 18 23 .439 4.36 330.1 352 181  35 149 159  11
22       OAK as Reliever 1979 243   128 14 22 .389 5.19 391.2 458 250  41 210 218  15
23       MIN as Reliever 1986 240   128 15 26 .366 5.51 390.2 466 263  40 174 239  14
24       DET as Reliever 1996 426   128 24 29 .453 5.97 567.0 642 406  88 347 469  29
25       PHI as Reliever 1969 236   127  9 21 .300 4.24 384.1 417 200  47 177 233   9

That's by OPS+. The O's are only the 3rd-worst pen of 2019 so far.  Any list like this will always have a disproportionate share of this year's teams because standard deviation is inversely proportional to sample size.  That'll wash out as the season progresses.  The Nats lead the metro area in bad bullpen with an ERA over 7.00. 

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3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's bad, but I thought maybe it was historically bad.  Maybe not quite yet (numbers since WWII, which is close enough to all time since pens were embryonic before that):

 


                                                                                     
Rk    I Team       Split Year   G sOPS+  W  L W-L%  ERA    IP   H   R  HR  BB  SO HBP
1        TBD as Reliever 2007 483   139 21 34 .382 6.16 497.0 605 360  77 250 395  22
2        BOS as Reliever 1987 236   136 19 24 .442 5.45 368.1 439 241  63 178 298   7
3        MON as Reliever 1971 214   135 10 20 .333 4.57 334.2 366 192  40 156 204   7
4        HOU as Reliever 2013 447   135 14 40 .259 4.92 534.0 561 325  85 252 418  22
5        DET as Reliever 2019 176   135 10  7 .588 5.57 179.1 193 119  37  86 153   8
6        WSN as Reliever 2019 178   134  8 12 .400 7.09 152.1 177 126  28  76 158  18
7        CHC as Reliever 1964 255   133  7 16 .304 4.59 358.2 430 200  33 137 200   6
8        CHC as Reliever 1975 298   133 23 25 .479 5.22 420.2 505 276  43 185 237  17
9        SLB as Reliever 1950 188   132 12 18 .400 6.81 358.1 478 303  40 226 129  14
10       BAL as Reliever 2019 158   132  4 11 .267 6.17 204.1 221 146  45  96 196  16
11       NYM as Reliever 1966 288   131 19 21 .475 4.20 469.2 502 255  59 235 276  13
12       HOU as Reliever 1967 293   131 20 29 .408 4.57 423.2 453 241  43 163 318  20
13       KCA as Reliever 1955 255   130 23 21 .523 5.70 482.0 537 341  66 236 192  21
14       MIN as Reliever 1982 244   129 11 30 .268 4.81 483.0 468 276  74 266 315   7
15       DET as Reliever 1989 252   129 24 22 .522 4.51 426.2 442 248  37 247 276  17
16       COL as Reliever 1999 420   129 23 25 .479 5.72 493.2 585 337  78 271 396  18
17       ARI as Reliever 2010 454   129 16 32 .333 5.74 439.0 485 307  62 224 331  22
18       DET as Reliever 2017 510   129 17 28 .378 5.63 528.2 589 350  89 239 465  27
19       PHA as Reliever 1952 137   128 14 12 .538 5.31 276.1 321 183  25 127  82   9
20       SDP as Reliever 1974 352   128 22 17 .564 4.66 509.2 559 292  49 265 310  14
21       TEX as Reliever 1976 196   128 18 23 .439 4.36 330.1 352 181  35 149 159  11
22       OAK as Reliever 1979 243   128 14 22 .389 5.19 391.2 458 250  41 210 218  15
23       MIN as Reliever 1986 240   128 15 26 .366 5.51 390.2 466 263  40 174 239  14
24       DET as Reliever 1996 426   128 24 29 .453 5.97 567.0 642 406  88 347 469  29
25       PHI as Reliever 1969 236   127  9 21 .300 4.24 384.1 417 200  47 177 233   9

 

That's by OPS+. The O's are only the 3rd-worst pen of 2019 so far.  Any list like this will always have a disproportionate share of this year's teams because standard deviation is inversely proportional to sample size.  That'll wash out as the season progresses.  The Nats lead the metro area in bad bullpen with an ERA over 7.00. 

I’m experiencing extreme schadenfreude with the Nats.    Davey Martinez is on the hot seat, big time.   They need Buck!    (Not really kidding, I think he’d fit what they need at the moment.)

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16 hours ago, LookinUp said:

The Tigers and Marlins are the only two even close to as bad as us in run differential. That sweep by the Marlins of the Tigers makes me worry that Detroit could be in for some terrible results.

I'm confident the Tigers are a good deal better than us, and breathing a big sigh of relief at that Marlins winning streak - they seem the biggest threat to the Official Rutschman Bookend a year and a week away.

I feel like the Rockies series will now end with two quiet losses.  As we were sprinting down the stretch in 2014, it always felt to me like in any 3-game series when we were way better, there would be one tough game and that game's outcome determined if we swept or won the series.  Now it is the other way around.

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Our pitching last year was AAA ish bad...this year it is Little League bad. 

Our Runs Allowed per game is at 6.14 which is an all time record for Orioles pitching with the HRs allowed per game at 2.14 ...this is compared to last year’s Runs Allowed of 5.51 and HRs per game of 1.51

At this rate we will easily smash the Orioles record for runs allowed in a season which the 2000 stellar squad established at 913.....we are on a pace for 960  or so...

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10 hours ago, Uli2001 said:

Mariners are 10-27 in their last 37 and their pitching is actually worse than the O's. And they started the season 13-2. Can you imagine that?

Their pitching is worse at giving up dingers?  I can't believe that.

 

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6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Their pitching is worse at giving up dingers?  I can't believe that.

 

Nowhere close...we have given up 111 to their 92...runs allowed per game is 6.14 to their 5.94....they are bad, we are in our own special class.   We are the worst pitching team in MLB and there is no team even remotely close. 

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9 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Nowhere close...we have given up 111 to their 92...runs allowed per game is 6.14 to their 5.94....they are bad, we are in our own special class.   We are the worst pitching team in MLB and there is no team even remotely close. 

They're on pace to allow 281 homers, which would be the record (non-Orioles category).

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3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

They're on pace to allow 281 homers, which would be the record (non-Orioles category).

My calculations show a 353 homer pace for this season...we are at 111 through 51 games.  

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44 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m experiencing extreme schadenfreude with the Nats.    Davey Martinez is on the hot seat, big time.   They need Buck!    (Not really kidding, I think he’d fit what they need at the moment.)

Well, they've already hired two of the four managers that managed to have a winning season in Baltimore in the past 30 years, and Johnny Oates is no longer with us.   Time for them to Buckle up.    Trembley, Perlozzo, Mazzilli, Hargrove, Regan, and Miller need not apply.

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The Orioles are headed for worst 2 year stretch of all time.   If they couldn’t win last night with that favorable pitching match up I don’t know when they will be able to win. Baseball has gotten really boring, it is just a home run hitting contest these days.  Changes need to be made to the game,  teams tanking and the lack of any interesting play and the game will die out, 

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6 minutes ago, atomic said:

The Orioles are headed for worst 2 year stretch of all time.   If they couldn’t win last night with that favorable pitching match up I don’t know when they will be able to win. Baseball has gotten really boring, it is just a home run hitting contest these days.  Changes need to be made to the game,  teams tanking and the lack of any interesting play and the game will die out, 

We need a metric called atomic+.  Like OPS+.  When you say "worst 2 year stretch of all time" we apply the Coors deflation and know you really mean "one of the worst two-year stretches in recent history".

The '62-63 Mets went 91-231-1.  The 2019 Orioles would have to be worse than 44-118 this year to beat that.

The 1915-16 A's went 79-226-3.  That's .259 ball ignoring the ties.  The O's would have to be be 37--125 to top that.

In the 1890s Louisville had a three-year run where they played .273 ball.  The 2018 O's were at .290.

The 2002-3 Tigers lost 125 games. 

I don't disagree that baseball needs to make some pretty fundamental changes.  The 1915 A's and the health of 1890s baseball are not models but a cautionary tales.

 

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4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

We need a metric called atomic+.  Like OPS+.  When you say "worst 2 year stretch of all time" we apply the Coors deflation and know you really mean "one of the worst two-year stretches in recent history".

The '62-63 Mets went 91-231-1.  The 2019 Orioles would have to be worse than 44-118 this year to beat that.

The 1915-16 A's went 79-226-3.  That's .259 ball ignoring the ties.  The O's would have to be be 37--125 to top that.

In the 1890s Louisville had a three-year run where they played .273 ball.  The 2018 O's were at .290.

The 2002-3 Tigers lost 125 games. 

I don't disagree that baseball needs to make some pretty fundamental changes.  The 1915 A's and the health of 1890s baseball are not models but a cautionary tales.

 

The Mets won 51 games in the second year in that second year. The Orioles aren’t going to win 51 games this year.  2002 Tigers won 52 games.  So worst two year stretch since 1916.   

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Also since the first 5 games the team is 11 and 35 that is less than a 39 win pace.

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9 minutes ago, atomic said:

Also since the first 5 games the team is 11 and 35 that is less than a 39 win pace.

Yeah, but those five games count, and the Orioles will probably run into some mini-hot streak like that once in a while.

Honestly I don’t know if they’ll beat last year’s record or not.   They’re 2-14 over the last 16, so things are looking very bleak at the moment.   Not the best time to ask me.  

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