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Is this team worse than last year?

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Just now, oriolediehard said:

I know we all want the O's to win everyday including me.  But what is the point of winning now when we have no chance this year.  My point is winning now will cost us a first round pick.  Right now Detroit is the leader and Kansas City right behind us.  How would we feel in 3-4 years Detroit picks a Mike Trout type player and we will say winning those few meaningless games could cost us a once in a lifetime player,  playing for Detroit.  To me winning that first round pick is more important than winning a few extra games now.  

The O's have two first round picks in the 2020 draft.  They are not in danger of losing one.

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1 minute ago, oriolediehard said:

I know we all want the O's to win everyday including me.  But what is the point of winning now when we have no chance this year.  My point is winning now will cost us a first round pick.  Right now Detroit is the leader and Kansas City right behind us.  How would we feel in 3-4 years Detroit picks a Mike Trout type player and we will say winning those few meaningless games could cost us a once in a lifetime player,  playing for Detroit.  To me winning that first round pick is more important than winning a few extra games now.  

You don't need to pick first to get a Mike Trout type player.   Trout went 25th.

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9 minutes ago, SteveA said:

You don't need to pick first to get a Mike Trout type player.   Trout went 25th.

Babe Ruth didn't even get drafted!

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6 minutes ago, SteveA said:

You don't need to pick first to get a Mike Trout type player.   Trout went 25th.

Not sure I agree with this.  Everyone always brings up Trout as the counter argument for not tanking to get the top pick but I think he was really an anomaly that occurred based on scouting bias against where he played/who he played against.

I'm not saying that you can't find a generational talent at a later pick but it's much more likely you do it at picks 1-5.

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14 minutes ago, Lucky_13 said:

Not sure I agree with this.  Everyone always brings up Trout as the counter argument for not tanking to get the top pick but I think he was really an anomaly that occurred based on scouting bias against where he played/who he played against.

I'm not saying that you can't find a generational talent at a later pick but it's much more likely you do it at picks 1-5.

Let's look at the top 10 in WAR (from ESPN) and see where/how they were added to their first team.

1-fourth round pick

2- 25th pick

3- 7th pick

4- 23rd pick

5-  39th pick

6- International

6- 11th pick

8- International

9- 25th pick

10- 2nd pick

This is just a moment in time of course but I do think it shows that picking #1 overall isn't essential.

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Next years draft looks better than this years, with a number of top flight college arms available early It shouldn't matter whether we pick on two or three,IMO.

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3 hours ago, oriolediehard said:

I know we all want the O's to win everyday including me.  But what is the point of winning now when we have no chance this year.  My point is winning now will cost us a first round pick.  Right now Detroit is the leader and Kansas City right behind us.  How would we feel in 3-4 years Detroit picks a Mike Trout type player and we will say winning those few meaningless games could cost us a once in a lifetime player,  playing for Detroit.  To me winning that first round pick is more important than winning a few extra games now.  

Well, you have several players trying to establish themselves like Nunez, Severino, Alberto, and Santander.  They're all making good cases to stick at the ML level, which would be life-changing for them.  You know they'll be playing hard every night.  And Mancini is a couple good seasons away from being set for life. This and next season could be the difference between wealth and who knows what for a lot of these guys.  You have to let them go for it.  1st pick, 6th pick... whatever.

Earlier in this thread I said this year's team was clearly worse than last year's.  I'm not so sure anymore.  They're more entertaining, that's for sure, and easier to root for.  And if they finish with more than 47 wins, which looks likely, I guess they are better.

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4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Let's look at the top 10 in WAR (from ESPN) and see where/how they were added to their first team.

1-fourth round pick

2- 25th pick

3- 7th pick

4- 23rd pick

5-  39th pick

6- International

6- 11th pick

8- International

9- 25th pick

10- 2nd pick

This is just a moment in time of course but I do think it shows that picking #1 overall isn't essential.

Yeah i get what you're saying, its certaintly not necessary. But if you have a top pick you have the best chance at a cornerstone player plus with good scouting you can find players like the ones above at later picks/internationally. So you maximize your chances to get value. 

But you're right it won't hurt the rebuild if they don't get the top pick. 

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4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Let's look at the top 10 in WAR (from ESPN) and see where/how they were added to their first team.

1-fourth round pick

2- 25th pick

3- 7th pick

4- 23rd pick

5-  39th pick

6- International

6- 11th pick

8- International

9- 25th pick

10- 2nd pick

This is just a moment in time of course but I do think it shows that picking #1 overall isn't essential.

Well, there are factors of scouting, development and luck as well, although clearly having #1 doesn't lock it in.

However, if you had a crystal ball and knew the future, #1 would do better every time ;)  So find that crystal ball and we're set.

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4 minutes ago, jerios55 said:

Well, there are factors of scouting, development and luck as well, although clearly having #1 doesn't lock it in.

However, if you had a crystal ball and knew the future, #1 would do better every time ;)  So find that crystal ball and we're set.

Obviously I agree that picking first is an advantage, not the least of which is the additional pool money.

But you don't actively sabotage your team in August and I don't think teams go into seasons with getting 1-1 as a goal, at least not in baseball and football.

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I've been following baseball since before the first amateur draft in 1965. I can't recall a single instance in which an MLB team or the media looked back a few years and said anything like, "if only we/the ____s had won X fewer games, we/they could have drafted Joe Doakes and now we/they would be a better team." Maybe it's happened, but I'm skeptical.  

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7 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I've been following baseball since before the first amateur draft in 1965. I can't recall a single instance in which an MLB team or the media looked back a few years and said anything like, "if only we/the ____s had won X fewer games, we/they could have drafted Joe Doakes and now we/they would be a better team." Maybe it's happened, but I'm skeptical.  

I recall some O's fans complaining about how a season ending sweep of the Yanks cost them Texeria.

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1 hour ago, BarclaySouthway said:

Well, you have several players trying to establish themselves like Nunez, Severino, Alberto, and Santander.  They're all making good cases to stick at the ML level, which would be life-changing for them.  You know they'll be playing hard every night.  And Mancini is a couple good seasons away from being set for life. This and next season could be the difference between wealth and who knows what for a lot of these guys.  You have to let them go for it.  1st pick, 6th pick... whatever.

Earlier in this thread I said this year's team was clearly worse than last year's.  I'm not so sure anymore.  They're more entertaining, that's for sure, and easier to root for.  And if they finish with more than 47 wins, which looks likely, I guess they are better.

I was where you were earlier too, but being worse would have been hard.  I was thinking more along the lines of comparable. 

But I like this team.  Not many are going to stick, but they are playing for jobs in MLB, if not for the O's.  Good for them.  They are playing! 

The guys last year clearly gave up.  I have no respect for that and it's why I don't think any player, other than some of the younger guys like Mancini, regardless of their pay should still be on this team.  It sets a bad example.

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In regards to the draft, I feel better having a later pick with a guy like Elias and his trusty sidekick Sig giving him information.  I'd be more pissed if DD was still here and we weren't in position to get 1:1. 

 

10 hours ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

I was where you were earlier too, but being worse would have been hard.  I was thinking more along the lines of comparable. 

But I like this team.  Not many are going to stick, but they are playing for jobs in MLB, if not for the O's.  Good for them.  They are playing! 

The guys last year clearly gave up.  I have no respect for that and it's why I don't think any player, other than some of the younger guys like Mancini, regardless of their pay should still be on this team.  It sets a bad example.

I like this team, too. 

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