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Greg Pappas

O's 2020 MLB Draft Chat: Picking #2/30/39/74

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Emerson Hancock had a meh night last night, 5.2 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 10 K’s.    The strikeouts were nice, otherwise not much to write home about.    

Spencer Torkelson had five plate appearances and walked three times, got hit by a pitch and struck out.    Pitchers are being super careful with him.

Austin Martin went 0 for 3 with a walk.   So did Nick Gonzalez.    
 

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21 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

Started off as Fangraphs #40 prospect but rising.  I have to say, the O’s poor record and meek outlook for the next year definitely make watching amateur baseball much more intriguing.  Throw in a couple of surprise “over-performers” on the big league squad and I’ll have an enjoyable spring/summer.

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10 hours ago, dbmillertime said:

Started off as Fangraphs #40 prospect but rising.  I have to say, the O’s poor record and meek outlook for the next year definitely make watching amateur baseball much more intriguing.  Throw in a couple of surprise “over-performers” on the big league squad and I’ll have an enjoyable spring/summer.

I don't think he's thought of as highly as Tim Lincecum was in 2006, where he was drafted 10th by the Giants, but he has similar size (about 6'-165) and somewhat similar stuff. Short and slight pitchers are not the ideal build, but there are certainly plenty of exceptions and Meyer will find a spot in Round One somewhere.  I suspect it'll be Top 15-Top 20, though he could certainly push up into the Top 10 by draft day.

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Here are some interesting snippets from Baseball America's Carols Callazo from Feb 20th (missed this and should have posted a week ago):
 

Quote

KB (NY):

What do you think the chances are that Baltimore takes Nick Gonzales number two over Spencer Torkelson given the opportunity? Is the Oriole's farm system deeper in middle infielders than corner guys?

Carlos Collazo: At this point there seems to be a solid group of five players who I really wouldn’t be shocked to see go in any order. It’ll be interesting to see if any of that group really separates and establishes himself as THE top guy, but for now it’s mixed. Gonzales certainly had a strong opening weekend though. Baltimore’s system is pretty weak at second base unless you project a few of their shortstops to move over to the keystone in the future, so maybe you’re on to something here.

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Dave (Indiana):

What range do you see Blaze Jordan going in?

Carlos Collazo: Blaze continues to be the most popular player in the draft! Nice. Right now he could sneak into the back of the first or go in the comp or second round. That range seems fair at this point based on everything I’ve heard.

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Is there anyone outside of the Big 3 ( Hancock, Torkelson or Martin) that with a big season could be in the conversation for Detroit at number 1?

Carlos Collazo: Let's start talking about it as a Big 5 and throw Texas A&M LHP Asa Lacy and New Mexico State 2B (or SS, perhaps?) Nick Gonzales into the mix.

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Dillon (Maryland):

Surprised by the sudden drop of Emerson Hancock from easy top-three pick candidate to No. 5 overall in the latest mock. Any particular reason for this aside from his poor outing last week?

Carlos Collazo: We broke down Emerson's start and the scout takeaways from that here: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2020-mlb-draft-stock-watch-big-year-for-draft-eligible-sophomores/ It's more that Asa Lacy and Nick Gonzales are both very, very good than any real worry about Hancock himself. I think Emerson is going to be just fine this season, don't want to overreact too much to one game.

 

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Some more interesting snippets from Fangraph's Eric Longenhagen's chat from Feb 28th (timestamps included for reference):

Quote

12:31    
Carlos: You comped draft prospect Blaze Jordan to Jhonkensy Noel. Is there a compliment for Noel in this or just highlighting being bearish on Jordan?
12:32    
Eric A Longenhagen: It’s me trying to properly put Blaze in a proper context. His skillset isn’t bad, but it is common.

My early excitement over Blaze Jordan has been tempered by multiple reports. It seems that while he has serious upside in the power dept, his other skills have not advanced enough to warrant an early 1st round choice. He seems to still be in the mix for R2-R3, but I'm unsure whether the O's will target him.

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12:37    
TacoBrett: Please rank: Hancock, Rocker, Leiter
12:37    
Eric A Longenhagen: Leiter Hancock Rocker, I have 50s on them all at the moment

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12:46    
Matt: Austin Martin’s hitting #s over the last year+ are kind of absurd for someone who could play 2B or CF. Why isn’t he more of a sure fire #1 lock the way someone like Rutschman was a year ago? Is Torkelson that good? Or do you think perhaps the talk of where Martin plays defense has kind of distracted from how good he is at the plate?
12:47    
Eric A Longenhagen: Tork is that good. Martin doesn’t have gigantic raw, his swing just has beautiful lift that lends confidence to him hitting for power anyway (the approach helps too) and he’s more of a passable defender at 2B/SS/3B than a great one, the CF projection is all an assumption.

 

BTW, does anyone know of a site that provides up-to-date stats of the top prospects in the draft?

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Jabroni: Vaughn or Torkelson?
Keith Law: Torkelson.

Torkelson: [Torkelson] will be drafted #1 by detroit, no doubt.
Keith Law: There’s doubt. Austin Martin is pretty damn good. I think it’s one of those two.

Joe: Keith, is Kumar Rocker a generational type prospect like many fans are hyping him up to be, or is he just the most famous one at the moment?
Keith Law: Just the most famous. Would bet against him going 1-1 in 2021 right now (that is, I would bet on the field).

Rocker: 1) Austin Martin
2 Spencer Torkelson
3 Nick Gonzales
4 Emerson Hancock   This my rankings in baseball draft 2020? which one has highest upside?
Keith Law: Gonzales isn’t in that group if we’re talking upside. Martin definitely has the most upside of the group, and he’d be 1 on my draft board right now, but that doesn’t necessarily make him the best player.

 

In  a recent chat, Keith Law implied his ranking would be 

1. Martin

2. Torkelson

3. Hancock

I think I've been sleeping on Torkelson a bit, because of his position. 

Also interesting that he doesn't seem to think of Rocker as the generational Strasburg-level prospect that some have been making him out to be. Which is good because I'd rather the Orioles surprised people and won 70+ games this year anyway.

 

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Just my own take (that I know of), but Garrett Mitchell , the 6' 3 - 204 CF from UCLA with premium physical tools, is showing signs that he may need to be taken seriously as a Top 3 pick.  Mitchell does play with Type 1 Diabetes, but he has managed it quite well, and it doesn't appear to be an issue moving forward.  Guys with superior speed, that show the potential for plus power and having the ability to play above-average defense in CF, are few and far between. If he continues to excel this season, don't be surprised to see him getting talked about potentially moving from the 6-12 range and into the Top 5.

 

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2 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

Just my own take (that I know of), but Garret Mitchell , the 6' 3 - 204 CF from UCLA with premium physical tools, is showing signs that he may need to be taken seriously as a Top 3 pick.  Mitchell does play with Type 1 Diabetes, but he has managed it quite well, and it doesn't appear to be an issue moving forward.  Guys with superior speed, that show the potential for plus power and having the ability to play above-average defense in CF, are few and far between. If he continues to excel this season, don't be surprised to see him getting talked about potentially moving from the 6-12 range and into the Top 5.

 

Has he been playing CF this year? And I’m  not crazy about his hands.  He has a weird load/ timing mechanism perhaps? that looks like it causes him to slap at the ball which saps his power. 

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1 hour ago, joelala said:

Has he been playing CF this year? And I’m  not crazy about his hands.  He has a weird load/ timing mechanism perhaps? that looks like it causes him to slap at the ball which saps his power. 

Yes, he's their CF. Thus far this season in ten games, he's hitting .368 with a slash of .489/ .526/ 1.015 , with no HR's, 1 RBI, and 3/4 in SB.
Here's some info from his MLB.com profile.

Quote

AGE: 21
B/T: L/R
DOB: 09/04/1998
HT/Wt: 6' 3"--204

Scouting Grades/Report (20-80 grading scale)
HIT: 60
POWER: 50
RUN: 70
ARM: 60
FIELD: 50
OVERALL: 55

Mitchell was a solid high school prospect at Orange Lutheran in California, one who was firmly in the middle of the Draft Top 100 in 2017. As toolsy as they come, concerns about his ability to tap into those tools consistently and his commitment to UCLA led to him not being selected until the 14th round (by the A's). He started to make good on his potential during a strong sophomore season with the Bruins, though hedidn't get the chance to show what he could do with Team USA as a leg injury forced him off the Collegiate National Team.

Not fully cleared this fall, Mitchell nonetheless impressed scouts with his batting practice sessions. He's made real strides with his swing, one of the concerns when he was coming out of high school. He hit consistently for the first time in 2019 and scouts want to see him do it again during his junior season. He showed plus power in BP and his ability to transfer that to games this spring could make him one of the top picks in the country. Big and strong, Mitchell is an easily plus runner who can steal bases and cover a ton of ground in center field, a premium position he'll be able to play long term with the chance to develop into at least an above-average defender in time.

Mitchell has been playing with Type 1 diabetes since being diagnosed in third grade and has shown he can be a premium athlete while dealing with the disease. Armed with perhaps the best collection of tools in this Draft class, he could be in the top of the Draft conversation if he takes another step forward in using them in games during his junior year.

 

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I'm still excited to see how Illinois prep SS Ed Howard does this season, as he has the skill-set to rush into the top tier of R1.  Coming into the season, there hasn't been a lot of hype regarding the HS class, but maybe Howard or another prep gains serious helium leading up to the draft. That's be cool. 

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While who we get at pick #2 rightfully garners the most attention, our picks at #30 and #39 could be big for us as well. By May if not a bit sooner), I look forward to tracking the players that should be available in that range and keep an eye out for late risers.  

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Our best hope is that the Tigers become enamored with Torkelson and Martin falls to us, but from everything I've read it's gonna take a lot for the Tigers not to pick Martin.

I've been scouting a lot of player who could be available for us to pick in the 30 and 39 range. Hoping to make a list of preferred candidates soon. Keep in mind it's a lot harder to gauge which high school players would be available there though, and this would not account for any underslot/overslot shenanigans. 

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43 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Yes, he's their CF. Thus far this season in ten games, he's hitting .368 with a slash of .489/ .526/ 1.015 , with no HR's, 1 RBI, and 3/4 in SB.
Here's some info from his MLB.com profile.

 

Ah ok they do mention he’s made some swing changes, and indeed the video I watched was from last year

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