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O's 2020 MLB Draft Chat: Picking #2/30/39/74

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10 hours ago, MountUrCastle said:

Experience in other sports has always lead me to prioritize offense over defense- I understand this may not be the case for baseball, but it's what puts Gonzales ahead for me even considering his environment. I'd imagine the reality of the situation is they're both very close.

They are close I think, and I would be pumped if we added either player.  
 

And completely disregarding defense is a dangerous game. 

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Heaven help us if this entire season is cancelled. But if it is, I wonder how they'll determine the draft order for 2021? Anyone care to guess? Go by the same draft order for 2020? In that case I guess the Tigers take Kumar Rocker and the Orioles take Nander De Sedas. Of course a lot could change by then.

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4 hours ago, hutchead said:

Heaven help us if this entire season is cancelled. But if it is, I wonder how they'll determine the draft order for 2021? Anyone care to guess? Go by the same draft order for 2020? In that case I guess the Tigers take Kumar Rocker and the Orioles take Nander De Sedas. Of course a lot could change by then.

According to BA, Nander De Sedas is a draft eligible sophomore for the 2020 draft.  

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/nander-de-sedas-joins-exceptionally-deep-group-of-2020-mlb-draft-eligible-sophomores/

 

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On 3/26/2020 at 6:50 AM, hutchead said:

Heaven help us if this entire season is cancelled. But if it is, I wonder how they'll determine the draft order for 2021? Anyone care to guess? Go by the same draft order for 2020? In that case I guess the Tigers take Kumar Rocker and the Orioles take Nander De Sedas. Of course a lot could change by then.

Good question. Just my thoughts...  I imagine that the 2021 draft would go by the same order as a the prior season's draft. So, essentially what you inferred. Tigers at 1, O's at 2, etc.

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Preference list for pick #2-

1. Martin

2. Torkelson

3. Veen 

4. Hancock

5. Gonzales

6. Lacy

Torkelson and Martin are pretty close, but obviously the positional value is the clincher. Martin's power just hasn't taken that next step like you would hope for, and his pull happy approach gives me a little hesitation. Torkelson has zero questions with the bat. 

Veen pushed himself into the top tier like I said he could, but unfortunately I think that means he doesn't have a chance to be picked by us to go underslot here and overslot on another pick. With the draft only getting 5 rounds, I think it means we have to go with a safer option from college and you don't lose much upside with the choices from college.

To me Hancock is a much more complete pitcher than Lacy. Hancock more consistently throws above 95 with ease. Lacy's slider is slightly better than Hancock's, but Hancock's changeup is plus and Lacy doesn't even have a third pitch. Hancock's command is just a lot more refined than Lacy's, and his delivery just screams starter. Lacy's delivery is just more high effort. If I'm picking a college pitcher, a two pitch pitcher with effort in the delivery just scares me.

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17 hours ago, Spl51 said:

Preference list for pick #2-

1. Martin

2. Torkelson

3. Veen 

4. Hancock

5. Gonzales

6. Lacy

Torkelson and Martin are pretty close, but obviously the positional value is the clincher. Martin's power just hasn't taken that next step like you would hope for, and his pull happy approach gives me a little hesitation. Torkelson has zero questions with the bat. 

Veen pushed himself into the top tier like I said he could, but unfortunately I think that means he doesn't have a chance to be picked by us to go underslot here and overslot on another pick. With the draft only getting 5 rounds, I think it means we have to go with a safer option from college and you don't lose much upside with the choices from college.

To me Hancock is a much more complete pitcher than Lacy. Hancock more consistently throws above 95 with ease. Lacy's slider is slightly better than Hancock's, but Hancock's changeup is plus and Lacy doesn't even have a third pitch. Hancock's command is just a lot more refined than Lacy's, and his delivery just screams starter. Lacy's delivery is just more high effort. If I'm picking a college pitcher, a two pitch pitcher with effort in the delivery just scares me.

This is pretty close to the way I see it. I want a position player at #2. Not really interested in either of the arms, though if the scouts think Hancock is the guy, I am good with that. Not very interested in Lacy, or Veen for that matter. Gonzales is an interesting prospect, but I'd pass.

Martin is the guy I really want. With Martin, I don't even care if the power doesn't develop much more, I think he could profile as a high quality lead off hitter with an above average glove at second base. Martin walks as much or more than he strikes out, has good speed, and looks to be very capable with that bat. Sign me up please.

Torkelson would be great, too. Stick the bat in the middle of order and have fun. Potential positional overlap with Mountcastle, Mancini, and Davis in the fold, but that would probably sort itself out by the time Torkelson is ready for the majors.

I'm really hoping the Tigers draft Torkelson, so the Orioles can snatch up Martin. If the Tigers elect to go another route, I would be pretty happy with Torkelson as a consolation prize.

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I have to think that Elias is take one of two players with the #2 pick in the draft.  The best starter or the best skill position player with an exceptional bat.    That is Hancock or Martin.   Whichever player the Tigers do not take.

First baseman is not a skill position and long term that is where Mountcastle probably lands.   2B is less of a skill position than 3B and Gonzalez is not known for his defense.   If the O's take a position player he will have to be a two way player not just a bat IMO.

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2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I have to think that Elias is take one of two players with the #2 pick in the draft.  The best starter or the best skill position player with an exceptional bat.    That is Hancock or Martin.   Whichever player the Tigers do not take.

First baseman is not a skill position and long term that is where Mountcastle probably lands.   2B is less of a skill position than 3B and Gonzalez is not known for his defense.   If the O's take a position player he will have to be a two way player not just a bat IMO.

I don't think the Orioles draft a pitcher at top of round 1. Of course it can be said that a team never has enough pitching prospects, but the Orioles have a few right now and are sorely in need of some positional prospects. And Austin may be the best player in this draft, period. Most scouting reports seem to think Martin will be a quality defender at either 2b or 3b. Personally, I am sticking Martin at 2b and not thinking about it again until we know if Henderson is the 3b of the future or not. If Henderson doesn't pan out then Martin offers some flexibility. In short, stick Martin at 2b and keep building up the middle.

Taking Torkelson over Hancock as well. Torkelson seems like the most sure thing and is arguably the best player in the draft. A potential future middle of the order featuring Mountcastle, Rutschman, and Torkelson could end up being pretty potent -- supplement with Hays and Diaz for added flavor.

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It stinks not having a season to judge and scout these guys more....   Martin sure looked like a world beater last year, though he was scuffling a bit to start this year....   

Agreed that Lacy's 3rd pitch is fairly non-existent and Hancock has a more complete arsenal.   Lacy showed better command this year and his slider was wipeout.   Yes, developing a 3rd pitch wouldn't hurt him.   Steve Carlton  and Ron Guidry were two of the greatest lefties ever and they did fine with the fastball/slider combo.  They had 3rd pitches but just as a "show-me" type pitch.   (Of course, those were some of the best sliders and fastballs ever!).

 

I agree our farm system has better pitching prospects than position prospects at the moment.   That is not a reason to not draft a pitcher.   Pitching wins Championships.   You need to do battle with the beastly lineups the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays are going to trot out year after year.   Build a championship starting rotation, then add some positional talent.  Sign a couple of free agents if you have to.  Hitters and position players tend to be cheaper than starting pitchers anyway....

 

I think Hancock has the higher ceiling but Lacy has the higher floor.   Having watched them both, I'd pick Lacy.   Though I wouldn't be upset with Hancock.   Reid Detmers was lights out also...

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On 4/2/2020 at 11:16 AM, DocJJ said:

I agree our farm system has better pitching prospects than position prospects at the moment.   That is not a reason to not draft a pitcher.   Pitching wins Championships.   You need to do battle with the beastly lineups the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays are going to trot out year after year.   Build a championship starting rotation, then add some positional talent.  Sign a couple of free agents if you have to.  Hitters and position players tend to be cheaper than starting pitchers anyway....

I think Hancock has the higher ceiling but Lacy has the higher floor.   Having watched them both, I'd pick Lacy.   Though I wouldn't be upset with Hancock.   Reid Detmers was lights out also...

Granted, I am no scout, so take my opinions for what they are worth: nothing. That said, I tend to view Martin, Torkelson, and Hancock as similarly graded prospects. An argument could be made for either one to be considered best player in this class. All three of these players are very acceptable outcomes as far as I am concerned. Personally, Martin has the highest ceiling of all of them.

With Martin...
+ handles the bat well
+ gets on base, walks a lot
+ doesn't strike out a lot
+ has a solid glove that can play multiple positions
+ good speed 

That's a lot of quality attributes from a kid straight out of college. And Martin still has a lot of room to grow and add muscle to his frame -- I think the power will come. Martin checks most of the boxes and is exactly the type of player this organization needs -- the type of player we always lament about not having. I get that Hancock (or Lacy, if that's your preference) would be great additions and that the team could ALWAYS use more pitching, but Martin is worth bypassing the arms this year. When you factor in the volatility of pitching, give me the guy that plays every day. Just my $.02

 

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Question about Nick Gonzales — the guy has raked throughout his college career, and put up absolute monster stats for the abbreviated 2020 season. But I hear that scouts are discounting his offensive production because he’s supposedly been playing against lesser competition compared to some of the other players who are considered top prospects. I remember reading an article a while back that talked about why Mike Trout wasn’t drafted until the #25 pick in 2009, and the main reason for that seemed to be that the scouts at the time didn’t trust his offensive numbers because he was putting them up against lesser competition. I’m not trying to compare Gonzales to Trout, but wondering how scouts and the baseball intelligentsia can truly judge a player’s abilities when the level of competition varies so widely across different leagues and age groups. If they can screw up so badly with a Mike Trout level talent might they also be misreading Gonzales’ future as well? 

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Trout was a HS kid who came out of a cold weather State.  He'd be closer to the Orioles' Hall than Gonzales who is a college player who played his HS ball in Arizona.

They have tons more data on Gonzales.

Also is anyone suggesting Gonzales might slip into the 20's?

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Reading some of the draft sites, skeptics talk about his frame, weaker competition, and the Coors field effect (New Mexico State University is at an elevation of 4700 plus feet).  

Edited by cnmilton

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3 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Question about Nick Gonzales — the guy has raked throughout his college career, and put up absolute monster stats for the abbreviated 2020 season. But I hear that scouts are discounting his offensive production because he’s supposedly been playing against lesser competition compared to some of the other players who are considered top prospects. I remember reading an article a while back that talked about why Mike Trout wasn’t drafted until the #25 pick in 2009, and the main reason for that seemed to be that the scouts at the time didn’t trust his offensive numbers because he was putting them up against lesser competition. I’m not trying to compare Gonzales to Trout, but wondering how scouts and the baseball intelligentsia can truly judge a player’s abilities when the level of competition varies so widely across different leagues and age groups. If they can screw up so badly with a Mike Trout level talent might they also be misreading Gonzales’ future as well? 

 

On 4/2/2020 at 6:18 AM, wildcard said:

I have to think that Elias is take one of two players with the #2 pick in the draft.  The best starter or the best skill position player with an exceptional bat.    That is Hancock or Martin.   Whichever player the Tigers do not take.

First baseman is not a skill position and long term that is where Mountcastle probably lands.   2B is less of a skill position than 3B and Gonzalez is not known for his defense.   If the O's take a position player he will have to be a two way player not just a bat IMO.

I think teams will be smart enough to know that Gonzales isn’t solely a product of altitude and lesser competition. For example, in the Cape Cod league he hit .351/.451/.630 (I can’t find an OPS+) with 7 HRs, 6 SBs, and won the league MVP. He also walked 20 times against 22 strikeouts.

I also haven’t heard that Gonzales “is not known for his defense.” I’d like to know where you heard that. I have heard that he is unlikely to stick at shortstop, but that he should be solid at second. For example, Keith Law who ranks him number 4 overall wrote:

Gonzales hit five homers in a game this season, albeit at 3900 feet above sea level; he can hit, and is likely to hit more for average than for big power, with a potential move to second down the road.
 

https://theathletic.com/1670438/2020/03/16/keith-laws-top-30-prospects-for-the-2020-mlb-draft/?article_source=search&search_query=Keith law

Baseball America wrote that he is a solid defender at second.

Is Gonzales my favorite pick at number 2 at this point? Probably not. However, I wouldn’t be disappointed if the Orioles picked him and probably prefer him to everyone other than Torkelson and Martin.

Also, regarding Hancock, Law prefers Lacy and noted some red flags on Hancock:

Hancock was mentioned by scouts as a possible 1-1 pick before the season, but hasn’t come out strongly, between a rougher delivery, reduced command, and a lot more use of his two sliders than his plus (or better) changeup.

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From Baseball America discussion.  Possible benefit for upping salary floor for Oriole minor leaguers

 

Jeff (Georgia):

With a shortened draft, do you see teams making up for the lost picks with a lot more undrafted free agent signings - either college juniors/seniors or international? How do you see that working - a "free for all" with players trying to use multiple teams as leverage to get as close as they can to the $20K max signing bonus?

Kyle Glaser: I suspect there will be a lot of undrafted free agent signings, mostly college seniors whose conferences are saying they won't be giving returning seniors any aid and juniors who know they might get squeezed out of playing time next year. What's going to be most interesting is the teams that have already committed to paying their minor leaguers higher salaries (Giants, Cubs, Blue Jays) will likely have an advantage because if everyone is capped at the same bonus, being able to get more money as a minor leaguer will be a separator in which team you choose.

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