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By Moose Milligan · Posted
This is a good breakdown, specifically the barrel rate and the hard hit %. -
I'm sure that was not the debut Zimmermann wanted to have in his major league debut and of course it's hard to judge guys on one start, particularly the 1st major league starts. I've watched Zimmermann the last two season on video in the minors and then in spring training and I would say the biggest difference today was a lack of command of just about everything and a changeup that wasn't getting much drop at all. Zimmermann doesn't have the pure stuff that an akin has, but his command has been typically better. I noticed this spring that Zimmerman was certainly throwing harder (average around 94-95) in his two inning stints, but his command had fallen off, particularly with his slider. Last night was more of the same as he only threw his slider 3 times in the strikezone but did get his only two WHIFs on the pitch. A concern would be that he got no WHIFs at all on his fastball or change, not one. The change last night was not getting a lot of depth and I've seen more in the past. He did not command it very well and obviously left that one up on the home run. He did not have great command of his fastball though he did a decent job of working the edges of the zone, but missed a lot glove side which could have been nerves or over throwing a bit. He gets above average spin on his fastball but did use it well up in the zone enough and again, got no swings and misses which may mean guys pick him up well. I'd still like to see him get more starts down the stretch to see how it looks. Regardless of the results, congrats to a home town kid making it to the majors. -
He's had a lot of soft contact that has brought down that avg exit velocity. He's been a little lucky I guess when you look that his actual BA, SLG, wOBA and wOBACON have all being higher than his expected versions. His 76.7 percentile spring speed has helped him out as well sometimes. More importantly though, his 8.8% barrel rate and 41.8% hard hit% are over the MLB averages of 6.4% and 34.8%, and I think that's more important than average exit velocity. His weak % 5.9 (3.4 MLB avg) and Flare/burner% 27.9 (24.3%) are more than MLB avg, so it seems like he hits the ball really hard or flares it, with few inbetween.
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Sometimes strong guys like Mountcastle will end up with a dink single vs a pop out because they are able to muscle the ball into a hit. Now is it a repeatable skill? That's a good question.
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I can see the Orioles giving him a day off to make sure he doesn't hit it as well. Might as well give him an opportunity to be a rookie of the year next year, unless the Hays situation this year changed Elias' mind on doing that.
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Wasn't he RZNJs guy? I can just remember someone always telling me how wrong I was on Hart and then when the guy would get hot for a week or two he would post everyday and act like I was a knucklehead for doubting him. I never liked the workout and a few game cuts I saw of him after he was drafted and then heard awful things about him down in extended by some good evaluators. Once he had the .586 OPS in Delmarva with a the poor K-B ratio, I was pretty sure he was a dud professionally.
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I'm going to nitpick here. I saw a few work out tapes of him and I could not believe he was a second round pick. Other than speed, he had no plus tool and I'll always remember watching him pull ground ball to second base during a BP session one after another. I never had major league talent, but let me tell you, my BP sessions in high school were typically line drive to left, left center, center, then left center as I tried to hot where pitches were thrown. he made absolutely no adjustments while cameras were on him and scouts were watching him. If I were scouting him, I would have dropped him because of that. Now obviously i didn't get to see a lot of him so I don't know what else he did well, but he was a guy I never thought highly of and a guy i dropped from our Top 30 prospect list when BA still had him #4 in the organization. Let's just say I was an early adopter of him not being a prospect.
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