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Mancini Trade Package

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27 minutes ago, weams said:

Don't worry. Trey will get traded when someone wants him. Whether Roch believes or not. C.J. Cron is getting non tendered. Guys like Trey are not currently popular for money. 

I’m not disagreeing with your overall point, but Trey is a much better player than C.J. Cron in my opinion.    Cron has never had a season above 2.0 WAR, and Trey has had two in his first three years.   Trey has a career OPS+ of 119 to Cron’s 110.

FWIW, I do not think Trey will get $5.7 mm in arbitration as MLBTR projects.    I think he comes in under $5 mm.   Not sure what they’re smoking over there at MLBTR.

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31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not disagreeing with your overall point, but Trey is a much better player than C.J. Cron in my opinion.    Cron has never had a season above 2.0 WAR, and Trey has had two in his first three years.   Trey has a career OPS+ of 119 to Cron’s 110.

FWIW, I do not think Trey will get $5.7 mm in arbitration as MLBTR projects.    I think he comes in under $5 mm.   Not sure what they’re smoking over there at MLBTR.

They have almost always been right. Maybe this new trend will get them flatfooted. 

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40 minutes ago, weams said:

They have almost always been right. Maybe this new trend will get them flatfooted. 

I disagree that they have almost always been right.    They’re generally in the ballpark, but they’ve been off by $1 mm+ many times.    For example, in 2018 they projected Gausman for $6.8 mm and he got $5.6 mm.   They had Manny at $17.3 mm, and he got $16 mm.    They had Schoop at $9.1 mm, and he got $8.5 mm (not off by $1 mm, but $600 k is still a lot).    

They are significantly wrong on Villar and Mancini IMO.    However, we probably won’t find out what Villar would have gotten if he had been tendered.    I expect we will find out about Mancini.    

I don’t think they’re far off base on any of the others, though they ended up $185 k on Bleier.   

 

 

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1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I disagree that they have almost always been right.    They’re generally in the ballpark, but they’ve been off by $1 mm+ many times.    For example, in 2018 they projected Gausman for $6.8 mm and he got $5.6 mm.   They had Manny at $17.3 mm, and he got $16 mm.    They had Schoop at $9.1 mm, and he got $8.5 mm (not off by $1 mm, but $600 k is still a lot).    

They are significantly wrong on Villar and Mancini IMO.    However, we probably won’t find out what Villar would have gotten if he had been tendered.    I expect we will find out about Mancini.    

I don’t think they’re far off base on any of the others, though they ended up $185 k on Bleier.   

 

 

I think 90th percentile is good guessing. 

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4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

I don’t think they’re far off base on any of the others, though they ended up $185 k on Bleier.   

 

 

I only count it if they actually go to arbitration. And there are many variables then. A side can over play their position leaving the arbitrator no choice but to go with the other. 

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’m not disagreeing with your overall point, but Trey is a much better player than C.J. Cron in my opinion.    Cron has never had a season above 2.0 WAR, and Trey has had two in his first three years.   Trey has a career OPS+ of 119 to Cron’s 110.

FWIW, I do not think Trey will get $5.7 mm in arbitration as MLBTR projects.    I think he comes in under $5 mm.   Not sure what they’re smoking over there at MLBTR.

Mancini's a much better hitter than Cron. Just look at the splits. Much higher OBP too. 

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1 hour ago, weams said:

I think 90th percentile is good guessing. 

90th percentile of what?    This isn’t rocket science.   You basically look at what the player earned the year before and what similar players earned when they were at the same level of arbitration.    And you won’t find Mancini comps earning $5.7 mm in Arb-1.   

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An ESPN trade idea:

Quote

Baltimore Orioles trade OF Trey Mancini to the Oakland Athletics for LHP A.J. Puk and IF Franklin Barreto

Do I want to see the Orioles trade Mancini? No, but the only blockbuster deal involving the Orioles must include Mancini -- especially since they just waived Jonathan Villar. Oakland's outfield production was so-so in 2019, ranking 16th in the majors in OPS and wOBA, and that was with a surprising year from Ramon Laureano. Mancini can play either corner and give the A's a DH option if Khris Davis flatlines again. Mancini's projected salary is $5 million, so he fits in the A's tiny budget. They give up a promising starter in Puk, but the emergence of Jesus LuzardoFrankie Montas and Chris Bassitt means the A's suddenly have rotation depth to deal from.

 

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29 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think we're a year early on Mancini trade stuff.

Not to a budget conscious contender like the A's.  Another year and he starts getting more expensive and he is no longer an option for more budget minded teams.  At which point the large market teams thumb their nose at you and say we know you cant affird him and we can find those RCs somewhere else.  So I disagree.  We are right on target for talking Mancini trade.

The best value outside a trade deadline desparation rade is within the mid and small market teams who are sloshing back and forth between competing and tanking.

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Just now, Camden_yardbird said:

Not to a budget conscious contender like the A's.  Another year and he starts getting more expensive and he is no longer an option for more budget minded teams.  At which point the large market teams thumb their nose at you and say we know you cant affird him and we can find those RCs somewhere else.  So I disagree.  We are right on target for talking Mancini trade.

The best value outside a trade deadline desparation rade is within the mid and small market teams who are sloshing back and forth between competing and tanking.

Yeah I do agree now is the best time to trade him. I just think the Os are committed to him being on the team this year in order to field a team with SOMEbody fans know. That kind of thing could even be an owner mandate. There's no way to really know. But I'm just saying if I had to guess on a trade it would be when he's in a Villar situation.

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19 minutes ago, interloper said:

Yeah I do agree now is the best time to trade him. I just think the Os are committed to him being on the team this year in order to field a team with SOMEbody fans know. That kind of thing could even be an owner mandate. There's no way to really know. But I'm just saying if I had to guess on a trade it would be when he's in a Villar situation.

He, if they trade him someone else just becomes the face of the team.  It's not like Mancini is Mussina.  If he got traded I dont see it being one of those things that people look back on and go "Can you believe they did that?"

In the current MLB baseball decisions are largely devoid of fan sentiment unless they are a top 10 league player.  Hell, here in CT I even hear Sox fans saying they should trade Mookie.

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On 5/28/2019 at 5:30 PM, Philip said:

Trumbo hit 47 Homeruns, but his value only skyrocketed with us. The fact is most teams don’t want guys who only hit home runs anymore.

Batting .300 is not a guy who "only hit(s) home runs."  You ignore half of the comment.

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1 minute ago, Pheasants said:

Batting .300 is not a guy who "only hit(s) home runs."  You ignore half of the comment.

Sorry, I did not realize how old your comment was.

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