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Mancini Trade Package

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2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Well, he won't regress if he gets traded to Colorado.  There he probably will hit .333 with 45 Homer's per year for 3 years.

Last year no Rockies starter hit .333 or hit 45 HR.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Well, he won't regress if he gets traded to Colorado.  There he probably will hit .333 with 45 Homer's per year for 3 years.

I think that him being in Colorado is where the 120 homers over 3 years comment was speculated.  I think he will hit 35-40 wherever but I think he will reduce Ks, increase walks, increase doubles, and increase OPS significantly..  But mine is a minority opinion on this board. 

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28 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Considering he just hit 35 in what was likely a career year, I'd say not.  He's a good hitter who hit 35 last year. I think he's good but I expect a regression from last years numbers. 

Well consider half his games at Coors field: how many warning track outs at Camden would have gotten enough help from the air to go out? There’s probably concrete information that could exactly answer that question.

But yes there was a lot of hyperbole in the comment.

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9 minutes ago, Philip said:

Well consider half his games at Coors field: how many warning track outs at Camden would have gotten enough help from the air to go out? There’s probably concrete information that could exactly answer that question.

But yes there was a lot of hyperbole in the comment.

Park Factors 2019:  HR

Coors Field- 1.266

OPACY- 1.262

 

I'm going with 0.

 

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1 hour ago, Philip said:

Well consider half his games at Coors field: how many warning track outs at Camden would have gotten enough help from the air to go out? There’s probably concrete information that could exactly answer that question.

But yes there was a lot of hyperbole in the comment.

Coors field is bigger then Camden. Coors is the #1 hitters park because it favors Home Runs AND Batting Average.  Trey would likely maintain a higher BA then any sort of noteable HR increase.

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I believe it was ESPN that ran an article as a winter meeting primer, where they put one move for each team to make.  The Orioles move was trading Mancini to the Athletics for AJ Puk and Franklyn Barreto.  I could easily get behind a package similar to that- a top 50 overall prospect, and a former top prospect who may just need consistent playing time or a change of scenery.  If we trade Mancini, I really want to see a quality piece- particularity a pitcher who is close- to headline the return.  

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I don’t know if there’s a enough demand to trade Mancini now. We all pretty much figured that a team with a bigger ballpark would target Bundy. I guess Mancini is a cheaper alternative to Castellanos. So whatever teams are in on Castellanos would be in on Mancini. 

I think a lot of teams that need a RH corner bat will just wait till the deadline and get a rental. 

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10 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Considering he just hit 35 in what was likely a career year, I'd say not.  He's a good hitter who hit 35 last year. I think he's good but I expect a regression from last years numbers. 

I expect the whole league to regress as they dial back the juiced ball.  

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46 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I expect the whole league to regress as they dial back the juiced ball.  

 But how much?  Do they really have this thing down to a science, or are they guessing and hoping on effects?  I'd like to see a 1988, where they over-corrected and ended up with homers falling more than 25% and runs down from 4.7 to 4.1.

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I still think the Twins are a team to target in a Mancini trade.  They’ve moved on from Cron and have a couple of shortstop prospects that we could target.

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8 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I still think the Twins are a team to target in a Mancini trade.  They’ve moved on from Cron and have a couple of shortstop prospects that we could target.

I'm not sure the Twins would feel comfortable taking on Mancini with Cruz already on their roster. From everything I've read the seem to be more focused on pitching this off season because after Berrios and Odorizzi they basically have no one. I wouldn't be surprised if the tried to save some money at 1B and went with a platoon of Gonzalez and Astudillo. 

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12 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Last year no Rockies starter hit .333 or hit 45 HR.

 

 

Using the bb-ref neutralized stats converter, Mancini's 2019 numbers in a '19 Coors context is equivalent to .331/.408/.612, 1.020 OPS, 145 runs, 211 hits, 46 doubles, 43 homers, and 132 RBI.  And the same OPS+ and WAR as he really had.

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8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Using the bb-ref neutralized stats converter, Mancini's 2019 numbers in a '19 Coors context is equivalent to .331/.408/.612, 1.020 OPS, 145 runs, 211 hits, 46 doubles, 43 homers, and 132 RBI.  And the same OPS+ and WAR as he really had.

Such a crazy place to play baseball.   

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10 hours ago, ThomasTomasz said:

I believe it was ESPN that ran an article as a winter meeting primer, where they put one move for each team to make.  The Orioles move was trading Mancini to the Athletics for AJ Puk and Franklyn Barreto.  I could easily get behind a package similar to that- a top 50 overall prospect, and a former top prospect who may just need consistent playing time or a change of scenery.  If we trade Mancini, I really want to see a quality piece- particularity a pitcher who is close- to headline the return.  

I just don't see a return like that happening at all, but would love it if it did. Barreto gives us another middle infield option with some upside and plenty of youth as he will just be 24 on opening day. And Puk would offer an interesting arm to watch this year and would, hopefully, form a nice trio with Rodriguez and Hall in a few years.

Overall, I'm in the don't trade Mancini camp because I think the return would be a guy that would rank somewhere in the 8-12 range in our system and another 30-40 range prospect or two. I don't think that return is enough to move him. If the return nets a top-100 type talent as the headliner, I'm onboard.

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