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Mancini Trade Package

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12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What in the world are you talking about?   Tim Salmon was a 40 WAR player. Much better than, say, Adam Jones.    I’ll be delighted if Mancini has a 10-15 WAR career.   

Yep, much more likely he ends up a Tyler Colvin or Ryan Garko. 

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Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

Mancini has had a heck of a turnaround the 2nd half.  His BABIP is down like 80 points from last year. Also he’s only at a .629 OPS vs LHP this year. Probably because we face dominate LHP in the division a lot. 

Its going to be hard to judge Mancini based solely on WAR because we all know he shouldn’t be in LF. He’s going to be -1.0-.2.5 dWAR in the hole every year. BBref lists Marty Cordova has a similar player comp for him. I’d take that. 

The BABIP is down big time, but let's remember last year's BABIP wasn't sustainable, his xBABIP last year was .329 and his batted ball quality has dropped slightly along with a drop in speed. 

You are absolutely right about LF killing value, but even with the 2nd half resurgence, he hasn't gotten back to a league average hitter yet. That won't play at 1B or DH, he doesn't need to be a 117 wRC+ like last year, but he needs to be close to 110 to be an everyday caliber player there. 

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Mancini also hasn’t been a lefty masher that we thought he would be. Only a .708 career OPS against them. The AL East does have some of the toughest LH SP in baseball. 

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Trey has had his sophomore struggles on a team that has been historically bad.  He is hot recently and hopefully will have a strong finish.  I will continue to hope that he will make more progress next year, particularly if they can find a way to clear Davis and Trumbo from the picture and let him return to first. 

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

What in the world are you talking about?   Tim Salmon was a 40 WAR player. Much better than, say, Adam Jones.    I’ll be delighted if Mancini has a 10-15 WAR career.   

I was thinking the same thing.  Tim Salmon was one of the most criminally underappreciated players in the time he played.  I get the argument Roy was trying to make, part of the bigger picture but not the focal point, but Tim Salmon was a terrible analogy.  If Trey Mancini magically turns it on and starts looking like Tim Salmon, you either lock him up for years to come or trade him at peak value and bring in a haul.

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7 hours ago, Roy Firestone said:

I think he will be a good player in the years ahead. He won't be the franchise player, or someone with a national name, but he can be a Tim Salmon type player...and someone to build on. Especially if he can play 1b.

Tim Salmon's career offensive numbers are below. He had five 30+ hr seasons and was a career .282 number.  I don't think Mancini has even close to that kind of upside. He's much more Kole Calhoun then he is Tim Salmon.

 

Standard Batting

Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards
14 Yrs 1672 7039 5934 986 1674 339 24 299 1016 48 42 970 1360 .282 .385 .498 .884 128 2958 98 67 0 68 45    
162 Game Avg. 162 682 575 96 162 33 2 29 98 5 4 94 132 .282 .385 .498 .884 128 287 9 6 0 7
1992 23 CAL AL 23 92 79 8 14 1 0 2 6 1 1 11 23 .177 .283 .266 .548 55 21 1 1 0 1 1 9  
1993 24 CAL AL 142 610 515 93 146 35 1 31 95 5 6 82 135 .283 .382 .536 .918 143 276 6 5 0 8 5 *9/8D RoY-1
1994 25 CAL AL 100 435 373 67 107 18 2 23 70 1 3 54 102 .287 .382 .531 .912 133 198 3 5 0 3 2 *9  
1995 26 CAL AL 143 638 537 111 177 34 3 34 105 5 5 91 111 .330 .429 .594 1.024 165 319 9 6 0 4 2 *9/D MVP-7,SS
1996 27 CAL AL 156 681 581 90 166 27 4 30 98 4 2 93 125 .286 .386 .501 .887 125 291 8 4 0 3 7 *9/D  
1997 28 ANA AL 157 695 582 95 172 28 1 33 129 9 12 95 142 .296 .394 .517 .911 134 301 7 7 0 11 5 *9/D MVP-7
1998 29 ANA AL 136 566 463 84 139 28 1 26 88 0 1 90 100 .300 .410 .533 .943 142 247 4 3 0 10 5 *D9 MVP-14
1999 30 ANA AL 98 422 353 60 94 24 2 17 69 4 1 63 82 .266 .372 .490 .862 119 173 7 0 0 6 2 9/D  
2000 31 ANA AL 158 680 568 108 165 36 2 34 97 0 2 104 139 .290 .404 .540 .945 135 307 14 6 0 2 5 *9D  
2001 32 ANA AL 137 581 475 63 108 21 1 17 49 9 3 96 121 .227 .365 .383 .748 98 182 11 8 0 2 4 *9D  
2002 33 ANA AL 138 568 483 84 138 37 1 22 88 6 3 71 102 .286 .380 .503 .883 133 243 6 7 0 7 3 *9D  
2003 34 ANA AL 148 621 528 78 145 35 4 19 72 3 1 77 93 .275 .374 .464 .838 122 245 12 10 0 6 3 9D  
2004 35 ANA AL 60 206 186 15 47 7 0 2 23 1 0 14 41 .253 .306 .323 .628 67 60 2 2 0 4 0 D/97  
2005     Did not play in major or minor leagues (Injured)
2006 37 LAA AL 76 244 211 30 56 8 2 9 27 0 2 29 44 .265 .361 .450 .811 109 95 8 3 0 1 1 D/97  

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39 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Tim Salmon's career offensive numbers are below. He had five 30+ hr seasons and was a career .282 number.  I don't think Mancini has even close to that kind of upside. He's much more Kole Calhoun then he is Tim Salmon.

 

Standard Batting

Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards
14 Yrs 1672 7039 5934 986 1674 339 24 299 1016 48 42 970 1360 .282 .385 .498 .884 128 2958 98 67 0 68 45    
162 Game Avg. 162 682 575 96 162 33 2 29 98 5 4 94 132 .282 .385 .498 .884 128 287 9 6 0 7
1992 23 CAL AL 23 92 79 8 14 1 0 2 6 1 1 11 23 .177 .283 .266 .548 55 21 1 1 0 1 1 9  
1993 24 CAL AL 142 610 515 93 146 35 1 31 95 5 6 82 135 .283 .382 .536 .918 143 276 6 5 0 8 5 *9/8D RoY-1
1994 25 CAL AL 100 435 373 67 107 18 2 23 70 1 3 54 102 .287 .382 .531 .912 133 198 3 5 0 3 2 *9  
1995 26 CAL AL 143 638 537 111 177 34 3 34 105 5 5 91 111 .330 .429 .594 1.024 165 319 9 6 0 4 2 *9/D MVP-7,SS
1996 27 CAL AL 156 681 581 90 166 27 4 30 98 4 2 93 125 .286 .386 .501 .887 125 291 8 4 0 3 7 *9/D  
1997 28 ANA AL 157 695 582 95 172 28 1 33 129 9 12 95 142 .296 .394 .517 .911 134 301 7 7 0 11 5 *9/D MVP-7
1998 29 ANA AL 136 566 463 84 139 28 1 26 88 0 1 90 100 .300 .410 .533 .943 142 247 4 3 0 10 5 *D9 MVP-14
1999 30 ANA AL 98 422 353 60 94 24 2 17 69 4 1 63 82 .266 .372 .490 .862 119 173 7 0 0 6 2 9/D  
2000 31 ANA AL 158 680 568 108 165 36 2 34 97 0 2 104 139 .290 .404 .540 .945 135 307 14 6 0 2 5 *9D  
2001 32 ANA AL 137 581 475 63 108 21 1 17 49 9 3 96 121 .227 .365 .383 .748 98 182 11 8 0 2 4 *9D  
2002 33 ANA AL 138 568 483 84 138 37 1 22 88 6 3 71 102 .286 .380 .503 .883 133 243 6 7 0 7 3 *9D  
2003 34 ANA AL 148 621 528 78 145 35 4 19 72 3 1 77 93 .275 .374 .464 .838 122 245 12 10 0 6 3 9D  
2004 35 ANA AL 60 206 186 15 47 7 0 2 23 1 0 14 41 .253 .306 .323 .628 67 60 2 2 0 4 0 D/97  
2005     Did not play in major or minor leagues (Injured)
2006 37 LAA AL 76 244 211 30 56 8 2 9 27 0 2 29 44 .265 .361 .450 .811 109 95 8 3 0 1 1 D/97  

Mancini has like 40 walks this whole year. He’s a hacker. Good approach, but he’s up there swinging. That’s why BABIP is always going to be make or break for him. 

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53 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Tim Salmon's career offensive numbers are below. He had five 30+ hr seasons and was a career .282 number.  I don't think Mancini has even close to that kind of upside. He's much more Kole Calhoun then he is Tim Salmon.

 

Standard Batting

Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards
14 Yrs 1672 7039 5934 986 1674 339 24 299 1016 48 42 970 1360 .282 .385 .498 .884 128 2958 98 67 0 68 45    
162 Game Avg. 162 682 575 96 162 33 2 29 98 5 4 94 132 .282 .385 .498 .884 128 287 9 6 0 7
1992 23 CAL AL 23 92 79 8 14 1 0 2 6 1 1 11 23 .177 .283 .266 .548 55 21 1 1 0 1 1 9  
1993 24 CAL AL 142 610 515 93 146 35 1 31 95 5 6 82 135 .283 .382 .536 .918 143 276 6 5 0 8 5 *9/8D RoY-1
1994 25 CAL AL 100 435 373 67 107 18 2 23 70 1 3 54 102 .287 .382 .531 .912 133 198 3 5 0 3 2 *9  
1995 26 CAL AL 143 638 537 111 177 34 3 34 105 5 5 91 111 .330 .429 .594 1.024 165 319 9 6 0 4 2 *9/D MVP-7,SS
1996 27 CAL AL 156 681 581 90 166 27 4 30 98 4 2 93 125 .286 .386 .501 .887 125 291 8 4 0 3 7 *9/D  
1997 28 ANA AL 157 695 582 95 172 28 1 33 129 9 12 95 142 .296 .394 .517 .911 134 301 7 7 0 11 5 *9/D MVP-7
1998 29 ANA AL 136 566 463 84 139 28 1 26 88 0 1 90 100 .300 .410 .533 .943 142 247 4 3 0 10 5 *D9 MVP-14
1999 30 ANA AL 98 422 353 60 94 24 2 17 69 4 1 63 82 .266 .372 .490 .862 119 173 7 0 0 6 2 9/D  
2000 31 ANA AL 158 680 568 108 165 36 2 34 97 0 2 104 139 .290 .404 .540 .945 135 307 14 6 0 2 5 *9D  
2001 32 ANA AL 137 581 475 63 108 21 1 17 49 9 3 96 121 .227 .365 .383 .748 98 182 11 8 0 2 4 *9D  
2002 33 ANA AL 138 568 483 84 138 37 1 22 88 6 3 71 102 .286 .380 .503 .883 133 243 6 7 0 7 3 *9D  
2003 34 ANA AL 148 621 528 78 145 35 4 19 72 3 1 77 93 .275 .374 .464 .838 122 245 12 10 0 6 3 9D  
2004 35 ANA AL 60 206 186 15 47 7 0 2 23 1 0 14 41 .253 .306 .323 .628 67 60 2 2 0 4 0 D/97  
2005     Did not play in major or minor leagues (Injured)
2006 37 LAA AL 76 244 211 30 56 8 2 9 27 0 2 29 44 .265 .361 .450 .811 109 95 8 3 0 1 1 D/97  

Continuing with Salmon's hijacking of this thread: Thanks for this. I had never realized before that he had such great walk numbers. Definitely was a fan fav in Anaheim.

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15 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

He looks to be below average at first.

If he is "much better" there than how is he not a butcher in left?

 

He has played better at first, than the original scouting reports that came out of his college days.

But, I agree with you, below average in both positions.

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15 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

He looks to be below average at first.

If he is "much better" there than how is he not a butcher in left?

 

It's hard for me to judge Mancini defensively.  He seemed an adequate defensive first baseman when he came up.  But, he was forced to play out of position in LF where he was clearly below average.  Now, after nearly two years, he's being asked to be a part-time first baseman at the highest level.  Would like to see him settle in at first and then judge him after he has time there.

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3 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Ok, back to Mancini. Here's a better comp. He's a defensively/speed challenged version of Alex Gordon. Sound about right? 

So you’re saying offensively he’s similar to Gordon?    Not a terrible analogy, I suppose, though Gordon has more plate discipline.    Gordon’s been all over the place offensively in his career, so it’s a little hard to know which version of Gordon we’re comparing him to.  

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