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MurphDogg

Orioles call up D.J. Stewart

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

If you look at the part of BB-ref that shows a player’s WAR stats, there is a column there called “Rfield.”   That is the stat that tells you how many runs a player is above or below average at his position.    The next column over is called “Rpos.”    That is the adjustment they make for the difficulty of the position you play.    So for example, Mancini has Rfield of -7 (7 runs below average at the different positions he’s played, mostly RF but a little bit of LF and 1B) and Rpos of -3 (signifying that those positions are easier than average).     You add those together to get -10 runs then multiply by a factor that is close to, but not exactly, .1 wins/run, and that gives you dWAR.     (If you used .1 for Mancini that would be -1.0; his actual dWAR is -0.9.)

So, if you want an unadjusted look at a players’ fielding from BB-ref, just look at Rfield.   Or, you can look in the fielding section of a player’s stats that shows Rtot and Rdrs.   I believe Rfield is actually the same thing as Rdrs.

One advantage the BB-ref and UZR stats have over the Statcast stats is they include throwing and, I believe, cutting off balls in the gap.   Statcasts stats are limited to measuring balls that were caught. I do like Statcast for that purpose and think it’s more accurate than the others at measuring range.

You can buy those stats if you want, I just think they are flawwed. That doesn't mean they are always wrong, just they are exaggerated. Do you really think Mancini caused 31 runs to score over an average outfielder last year? UZR has always been shaky and I've never trusted it. I prefer metrics/stats that are driven by sensors rather than human opinion and if things like chances per game which is dependent on way too many factors.

The statcast info is data not affected by human opinion or other factors. Obviously people can use what they want, and the others were all we had until statcast, but I'll use statcast info to evaluate over the others everyday and twice in Sundays.

 

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15 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

 Do you really think Mancini caused 31 runs to score over an average outfielder last year?

By bb-ref Mancini was 14 runs worse than average players at the positions he played last year.  By UZR/150 he was -17.  Statcast had him at 10 outs below average, which was 82nd of 87 qualifying outfielders, just above Adam Jones and Bryce Harper.

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47 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You can buy those stats if you want, I just think they are flawwed. That doesn't mean they are always wrong, just they are exaggerated. Do you really think Mancini caused 31 runs to score over an average outfielder last year? UZR has always been shaky and I've never trusted it. I prefer metrics/stats that are driven by sensors rather than human opinion and if things like chances per game which is dependent on way too many factors.

The statcast info is data not affected by human opinion or other factors. Obviously people can use what they want, and the others were all we had until statcast, but I'll use statcast info to evaluate over the others everyday and twice in Sundays.

 

I look at all of them.   As I said, I prefer Statcast as the best measure of OF range, but it doesn’t take into account the other aspects of OF defense.    Most of the time these days, the advanced metrics (including Statcast) agree in direction, but don’t always agree as to magnitude.    

I don’t see a stat showing Mancini at -31 last year.    Which one are you looking at?

 

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4 hours ago, wildcard said:

What source do you recommend for minor leaguers?

Luke and Tony? They have more actual information on these guys than anyone. 

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8 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Since his 3-for-4 debut he's slumped badly, going 0-for-7 with five strikeouts.  OPS down almost .900 points.  Time to start platooning?  Or does he just need more time in AAA?  Did we miss our chance by not trading him at his peak on the 28th?

Did Wildcard hack into your account?

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19 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Did Wildcard hack into your account?

I think it's an homage.

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21 minutes ago, TGO said:

I think it's an homage.

Yea, I get it. Just calling out the guy that deserves to be called out. 

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22 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Since his 3-for-4 debut he's slumped badly, going 0-for-7 with five strikeouts.  OPS down almost .900 points.  Time to start platooning?  Or does he just need more time in AAA?  Did we miss our chance by not trading him at his peak on the 28th?

Now out to 0 for 11 (no K's today though). Recalling how Brooks (2 for 22) and Cal (5 for 39) started out, it's surely a sign of future Oriole greatness.

.200/.250/.200/.450: deliberately setting up nice round numbers to calculate the glorious ascent from.

       

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13 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Arm looks fine to me.

And he actually throws to the right guy.

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21 hours ago, Frobby said:

I look at all of them.   As I said, I prefer Statcast as the best measure of OF range, but it doesn’t take into account the other aspects of OF defense.    Most of the time these days, the advanced metrics (including Statcast) agree in direction, but don’t always agree as to magnitude.    

I don’t see a stat showing Mancini at -31 last year.    Which one are you looking at?

 

Sorry, I meant this year and it's -26 runs saved in RF. Do you really think Mancini has caused the team 26 runs from his outfield play? Or do you think he probably cost the team two outs which even in the worse case scenario of bases loaded and two outs and all runs scored means he would have cost the team 8 runs? 

Last year he was -18 Rdrs/yr and -4 OOA. I think the -4 outs gives me a better understanding then -18 runs because I just don't believe that the -18 runs is accurate. Now if you just want to look at both sets of numbers and determine he's a below average defender, then sure, I'd agree, but however they come up with the runs saved numbers I just see that as an accurate representation of what he helps/hurts the team by playing the outfield.

Now let me be clear, I do think if guys are consistent negative in these categories that they probably are a below average defender, just that I don't agree with the "runs saved" determination and affect on the team as depicted.

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2 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Send him back down when Davis comes back Tuesday?

I’m starting to think they are teaching outfielders to miss the cut off man a all costs.

Edited by jtm

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22 minutes ago, jtm said:

I’m starting to think they are teaching outfielders to miss the cut off man a all costs.

Stewart did it too?

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