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Who do you want the Orioles to pick at 1-1?

Who do you want the Orioles to pick at 1-1?  

172 members have voted

  1. 1. Who do you want the Orioles to pick at 1-1?


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  • Poll closed on 6/3/2019 at 22:55

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9 minutes ago, weams said:

 

Bill was never "disinterested" but the possible drugs and homelessness got to him I think. Hard to live in a truck. 

Bubba was a single wing QB. 

I seem to recall that word being used to describe his "defense" in the outfield.

I could be mistaken.

Something something let the ball stop rolling before picking it up.

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1 hour ago, makoman said:

A 20 WAR career is no disaster, even if it wasn't what we wanted. A pretty middle of the road 1-1 pick, and the next five picks totaled 0.2 WAR so it's not like we missed something obvious (then Frank Thomas was picked 7th, blah).

 

The major league draft is something of a reverse Lake Wobegon: everyone is below average.  The expectation is that every pick in the first few rounds is going to become a solid major leaguer, with first round picks somewhere between All Stars and Hall of Famers.  The reality is that an average first round pick is someone like Darnell McDonald.  Ben McDonald and Matt Wieters both had solid careers based on where they were drafted.

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Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

The major league draft is something of a reverse Lake Wobegon: everyone is below average.  The expectation is that every pick in the first few rounds is going to become a solid major leaguer, with first round picks somewhere between All Stars and Hall of Famers.  The reality is that an average first round pick is someone like Darnell McDonald.  Ben McDonald and Matt Wieters both had solid careers based on where they were drafted.

I'm wondering if that is going to change as scouting gets more advanced.

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Players drafted and signed in 2007 after round 1:

Jonathan Lucroy, 3rd round, 19.0 WAR

Corey Kluber, 4th round, 33.1 WAR

Jake Arrieta, 5th round, 26.1 WAR

Jordan Zimmermann, 2nd round, 21.7 WAR

Giancarlo Stanton, 2nd round, 39.7 WAR

Freddie Freeman, 2nd round, 35.0 WAR

Anthony Rizzo, 6th round, 30.8 WAR

So I have Wieters as the 14th most valuable player in that draft, behind these 7 and first rounders Donaldson, Price, Heyward, Bumgartner, Frazier and Porcello.   Of course, there are some guys who are playing better than Wieters at this stage of their careers and may pass him.

Yes, all 30 major league teams whiffed on each of those players.  If only someone could draft well.

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3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm wondering if that is going to change as scouting gets more advanced.

Nope.  I just looked at the 2002 draft.  In the first 10 rounds there were only 22 players drafted who had 10+ WAR careers.  Assuming 2002 was somewhat representative, even if you had perfect knowledge of the future roughly 1/3rd of the first round would end up with a sub-10 win career.  An average late first/early second pick would still be someone like Jeff Francouer.

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4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think there’s a difference between a guy meeting expectations for their draft spot and a guy fulfilling the hope of being a franchise-changing player.    The odds are against any pick being the latter, and yet you hope they are, especially at 1-1.    The truth is that a 20 WAR career is a slightly above average outcome for a 1-1, but nobody’s going to be excited about that outcome.    

Remember, Wieters went with the #5 overall pick.  About 1/3rd of all #5 overall picks failed to appear in the majors.  And another 12 had a career value of 0.0 WAR or less.  Literally, about 50% of #5 picks net you zero value, and Matt Wieters is approaching 20 wins.

The Royals have picked #5 five times, and their most valuable player from that spot is Kyle Zimmer.

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11 minutes ago, weams said:

 

Got to think it’s just noise at this point. We’ve been looking at these kids for months knowing we’ve got our pick of the litter. We know who we are taking. Outside of something unforeseen or catastrophic, nothing that happens this weekend will change that. 

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1 minute ago, ReclaimTheCrown said:

Got to think it’s just noise at this point. We’ve been looking at these kids for months knowing we’ve got our pick of the litter. We know who we are taking. Outside of something unforeseen or catastrophic, nothing that happens this weekend will change that. 

So they are set on J.J. Bleday?

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2 minutes ago, ReclaimTheCrown said:

Got to think it’s just noise at this point. We’ve been looking at these kids for months knowing we’ve got our pick of the litter. We know who we are taking. Outside of something unforeseen or catastrophic, nothing that happens this weekend will change that. 

I would expect them to have a deal pretty much in place by now.

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