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weams

2019 38th round pick (1128): Ben Pedersen - RHP - Marshall HS (MN)

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3 hours ago, weams said:

Jon thinks none. 

We will see, but I agree with RZNJ - I think Watson would have already signed for slot if it was on the table.  I think we called this kid after the first night, said we have a fourth/fifth round grade on him, which is in line with his average ranking from various services, and offered him fourth/fifth round $ to take him at the top of the third.  

Pedersen would be a tremendous addition to our draft haul.

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13 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

It looks like the O's have about $1 million to play with even if they sign Watson for slot.   Would that be enough to get Pedersen?  

It's about 350k, so they could offer 475k if they don't use some of the room to go overslot on Daschbach or others. 

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7 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

It's about 350k, so they could offer 475k if they don't use some of the room to go overslot on Daschbach or others. 

If it came down to a choice, I'd rather go for the HS pitcher than the slugging, likely 1B.  

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14 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

It's about 350k, so they could offer 475k if they don't use some of the room to go overslot on Daschbach or others. 

Does that include if they went up to the 105% of the allotted money?

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24 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If it came down to a choice, I'd rather go for the HS pitcher than the slugging, likely 1B.  

I don't know enough about Pederson to make that call. I know Daschbach would be good org depth and have a much higher probability of providing some level of MLB contribution. 

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6 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

No, here's my reasoning. 

For a guy to make it to the 30+ round range, they must value their college commitment more than a pro team values them. So say Pederson (this is completely speculative) wants 750k, while teams have him pegged as a 5th to 6th round talent, 300k to 400k. So in that case, yeah you could imagine them paying him more than their valuation offering the 475k (75 to 175k over their valuation). But let's say Pederson is firm to the 750k ask. So now to sign him, you have to use 275k over the slot values and that's taxed at 75%, so that's 480k or so in addition to the 75 to 175k over their valuation they intially offered.

So then the choice is do you spend about 1M dollars on a players you have a 5th to 6th round valuation on which is over a half a million in overpay according to your valuation. 

Great explanation. Really spells out what it would cost with tax included versus value. 

Sounds like the next domino is what will Watson sign for. If we could save another 200k that would give us 550k of wiggle room. Then we could offer one single HS player 675k if we wanted to without paying a tax. That at least makes the decision tough on the HS player. 

Lots of questions,

What will Watson sign for?

What will Dashbach/Roth sign for?

It looks like no matter what we’ll be able to offer Pederson(or one of the HS) 1 million if we wanted to. It could get expensive as @Luke-OH has pointed out with value vs. tax cost.

I’ll raise a new question... is it better value to sign a 17-18 y o HS kid in the USA to that money versus a 16-17 y o kid from the Dominican?  The USA kids have been heavily scouted, recruited, and have some stats to look at. 

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10 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I don't know enough about Pederson to make that call. I know Daschbach would be good org depth and have a much higher probability of providing some level of MLB contribution. 

My personal preference is to take the high school kids with ML upside over the college junior who couldn't make the top 10 rounds of the draft, assuming $ is equal.

I don't know Daschbach from Adam, but what must his story be to justify paying him? Did he just price himself out of the top 10 rounds? Does he not see himself as org depth? 

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20 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

No, here's my reasoning. 

For a guy to make it to the 30+ round range, they must value their college commitment more than a pro team values them. So say Pederson (this is completely speculative) wants 750k, while teams have him pegged as a 5th to 6th round talent, 300k to 400k. So in that case, yeah you could imagine them paying him more than their valuation offering the 475k (75 to 175k over their valuation). But let's say Pederson is firm to the 750k ask. So now to sign him, you have to use 275k over the slot values and that's taxed at 75%, so that's 480k or so in addition to the 75 to 175k over their valuation they intially offered.

So then the choice is do you spend about 1M dollars on a player you have a 5th to 6th round valuation on which is over a half a million in overpay according to your valuation. 

Makes sense

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So I'm gonna say, based on Luke's post, we're looking to see if one of these 6 hs kids at the bottom of the draft will take $500k. Just summarizing in my mind. 

So which one is most likely to take it? 

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