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Enjoy Terror

2019 GCL Orioles

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I made a similar thread about the DSL Orioles, showing that 2006-2018 (where we have stats available to us), that only 3% of any players starting in the DSL go on to become MLB players. The Orioles contributed the fewest to those numbers, with only two players in that time frame (Schoop, EdRod).

This thread breaks out the four domestic rookie leagues in a similar fashion. I used Fangraphs data and cut any player whose first season in Domestic Rookie ball was over 24 years of age (to eliminate things like rehab assignments; pretty common in the rookie leagues). What I'm showing is that about 9% of Rookie ball players will go on to play in the majors. I'm also showing that the Orioles (like their DSL teams), between the GCL Orioles and former Bluefield team, not only contribute the fewest players to the majors, but even the percentage of total players that played in the GCL and made the majors is the worst. Nevertheless, I think it's interesting to show that while DSL Orioles failure to produce players could be blamed on lack of international investment, I'm not sure what to say about out the GCL Orioles.

iWbbo1a.jpg

Here are those 29:

Chance Sisco, Dariel Alvarez, Eddie Gamboa, Eduardo Rodriguez, Hayden Penn, Jason Gurka, John Means, Jonathan Schoop, Josh Hader, L.J. Hoes, Manny Machado, Mike Ohlman, Mike Wright, Mychal Givens, Nolan Reimold, Oliver Drake, Parker Bridwell, Pedro Beato, Pedro Florimon, Randor Bierd, Ryan Adams, Ryan Meisinger, Stefan Crichton, Stephen Tarpley, Tanner Scott, Tyler Wilson, Xavier Avery, Zach Britton, Zach Clark

Methodology: Download FanGraphs .CSV files of batters and pitchers for split seasons in each of the four leagues; combine all 8 into one sheet with age, team, ID, year. Sort by youngest age, eliminate duplicate IDs preserving youngest age first. Eliminate players over 24. Run pivot table with Team and Name as Rows, and ID as a Counted Value. Do it again for IDs that show MLB status.
 

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I think it shows that we either don't draft well, don't develop well or don't assign guys with ML upside to the GCL very often. I wonder if most of our college guys have started at Aberdeen? 

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Great research.    Keep in mind that most DSL players who eventually make the majors go to stateside rookie ball as their next stop.   So, the fact that we had almost no DSL guys feeding into our GCL team directly affects the output of the GCL team as well.    

Also, some major league teams have both a GCL team and a team in an intermediate league like the Appalachian League.   The O’s used to, and now they don’t.   The different approaches can affect the percentages, since the more teams you have, the higher percentage of players on those teams will be filler.

Lastly, a lot of our better prospects go straight to Aberdeen, especially the college guys. 

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3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I think it shows that we either don't draft well, don't develop well or don't assign guys with ML upside to the GCL very often. I wonder if most of our college guys have started at Aberdeen? 

It could be that. You might note that only 22 MLB franchises have Short Season teams. In every case of a team not having a SS team they have 2 or 3 Rookie teams. The Orioles, of course, only have the one right now.

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6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Also, some major league teams have both a GCL team and a team in an intermediate league like the Appalachian League.   The O’s used to, and now they don’t.   The different approaches can affect the percentages, since the more teams you have, the higher percentage of players on those teams will be filler.

I should point out that the above information includes the GCL, Appalachian League, Pioneer league, and the Arizona League. There are six seasons of Bluefield in this data. I originally didn't have the percentages in my data, but I got to the end and realized... hey maybe they only have 29 players make the majors because they only have one Rookie team (the Pirates, Yanks, and Royals each have 3!). But adding the percentages just made it look worse for us-- it wasn't about lack of players, we didn't adequately develop the ones we had.

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7 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

I should point out that the above information includes the GCL, Appalachian League, Pioneer league, and the Arizona League. There are six seasons of Bluefield in this data. I originally didn't have the percentages in my data, but I got to the end and realized... hey maybe they only have 29 players make the majors because they only have one Rookie team (the Pirates, Yanks, and Royals each have 3!). But adding the percentages just made it look worse for us-- it wasn't about lack of players, we didn't adequately develop the ones we had.

Yeah, that part is kind of complicated to analyze.   But the simpler part is the lack of DSL graduates on our GCL/Appy League teams compared to other franchises.    It looks to me like only 2 of the 29 players you listed played DSL ball for us (EdRod and Florimon).    For most teams the percentage would probably be 20-30%.

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8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yeah, that part is kind of complicated to analyze.   But the simpler part is the lack of DSL graduates on our GCL/Appy League teams compared to other franchises.    

Here's Aberdeen:

OVAjvk6.png

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26 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

I should point out that the above information includes the GCL, Appalachian League, Pioneer league, and the Arizona League. There are six seasons of Bluefield in this data. I originally didn't have the percentages in my data, but I got to the end and realized... hey maybe they only have 29 players make the majors because they only have one Rookie team (the Pirates, Yanks, and Royals each have 3!). But adding the percentages just made it look worse for us-- it wasn't about lack of players, we didn't adequately develop the ones we had.

The fact that this went on so long is troubling and nearly 95% of the ones that did make it were marginal, at best.

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19 minutes ago, Yachtsman said:

The Orioles need to consider adding advanced A at this point. Well researched post by the way.

I'm actually pretty shocked there are as many MiL affiliates as there are. Is it fair to assume that Aberdeen, Delmarva, Frederick, Bowie and Norfolk all bring in more revenue than it costs to pay the players and run the stadiums? 

Serious Q. I have no idea.

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16 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

The fact that this went on so long is troubling and nearly 95% of the ones that did make it were marginal, at best.

It would be interesting to look at all the players who debuted for the Orioles for the last 10 years and see how many were developed from within.    For example, last year 15 players made their major league debut for the Orioles - an extraordinarily high number.   Of those, only 7 were drafted by us, whereas 8 came from other organizations.   The 7 were Wynns, Wilkerson, Stewart, Mullins, Meisinger, Means and Hess.    Only two of those (Meisinger and Means) ever played in the GCL, and each of them only played one game there before moving on to Aberdeen.    

The previous year, we debuted 8 players (a more normal number), 5 of whom we drafted (Yacobonis, Scott, Sisco, Hays and Crichton.)   Scott, Sisco and Crichton played in the GCL.

In 2016 we debuted 8 players, two of whom we signed as older international free agents (Kim and Miranda), four of whom we drafted (Tolliver, Mancini, Hart and Bridwell).    Bridwell pitched two games in the GCL, the others never played there.    

I’ll stop there for now.   

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2 hours ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Advanced A is called "Frederick."

Sorry, you are right. Rookie Advanced was called Bluefield. They need to consider adding this to their stable of minor league teams.

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14 hours ago, Yachtsman said:

Sorry, you are right. Rookie Advanced was called Bluefield. They need to consider adding this to their stable of minor league teams.

It’s interesting the different philosophies on that.   The Astros dropped their team at that level a couple of years ago.   The Red Sox have never had a team at that level.  The Blue Jays didn’t used to have a team at that level, then added Bluefield when we dropped them.  

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Elias also spoke about the GCL on the radio this AM. He said that they'd usually want to send college players to Aberdeen and high school guys to the GCL. However, with the heavy drafting of college guys this year, it looks like many will also have to go to the GCL. 

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