Jump to content
Greg Pappas

An Early Look at the 2020 Draft's Top Prospects

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Wow. It's impossible to know (from that article) if he has an uber-careful coach who's protecting his player or if he's fragile. That really stinks. I personally want Hancock to be our pick, though I'm sure anyone we take will be a significant upgrade who will figure prominently in the org's future.

One of those articles talks about getting him back for the Auburn series. He went 6.2 IP, 4 hits, 3 runs in that series.

From the outside looking in, I think it's fair to guess "careful coach" or you wouldn't pitch him into the 7th. But I have no inside information. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/5/2019 at 6:31 PM, 7Mo said:

One of those articles talks about getting him back for the Auburn series. He went 6.2 IP, 4 hits, 3 runs in that series.

From the outside looking in, I think it's fair to guess "careful coach" or you wouldn't pitch him into the 7th. But I have no inside information. 

Would prefer to have a coach who keeps the body underneath as little wear/tear as possible, preserving his durability for the bigs, rather then spend it all in college, theoretically.

 

Re: Gonzales, experience w/scouting in other sports tells me that if the talent is noticeable and the results are there..... it's probably real. Understand the hesitation w/hitters parks but he's performed elsewhere.

I'm generally in the camp that would prefer to avoid pitchers at the top as they're very risky and while Hancock is great, if he's not at that transcendent level the potential loss in value is too high. I would be okay w/ a high-schooler due to more years to develop, could break into the league before one of the college kids, esp. if their tools translate well.

 

I'm firmly in the Martin camp, followed by someone like Crow-Armstrong/high-schooler/Gonzales. You have a large pool to pick from, take pitchers later/get from FA.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At this point I want Martin or Hancock. Torkelson would be next if there was a serious issue with the first two. I recently read some Bregman comps for Martin. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/3/2019 at 1:20 PM, Spl51 said:

With Manning already getting MLB time and Mize coming soon, as well as other pitching prospects that are more advanced, they have almost no impact position players coming up. The Tigers are old school, looking to fill holes with the draft, they've drafted pitching heavily for a while. There's a chance they go with Torkelson, it just doesn't seem likely for a first baseman to go 1st overall over the shortstop.

Good thoughts. Seems like Martin will be their pick then. They are tanking hard too, looks like they got mad when we got AR. 

I’m a big fan of going bats with these high picks but Hancock is a stud prospect. Hancock coupled with Hall/Rodriguez would give us 3 TOR potential arms for the 2022-23 rotation. Combine those three with the wave of arms in AAA in 2020 and that would give us a good chance at having a legit, AL East, rotation. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Good thoughts. Seems like Martin will be their pick then. They are tanking hard too, looks like they got mad when we got AR. 

I’m a big fan of going bats with these high picks but Hancock is a stud prospect. Hancock coupled with Hall/Rodriguez would give us 3 TOR potential arms for the 2022-23 rotation. Combine those three with the wave of arms in AAA in 2020 and that would give us a good chance at having a legit, AL East, rotation. 

Based on the few snippets I've read, Martin would be my preferred pick. But if he's gone, I would definitely prefer Hancock over Torkelson. The fact that Hancock is a seasoned college arm adds to that argument because it would put him closer to Hall and Rodriguez's timeline, and as we've seen from our disappointing Cavalry days, you can never have too many pitching prospects. 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, WalkWithElias said:

Based on the few snippets I've read, Martin would be my preferred pick. But if he's gone, I would definitely prefer Hancock over Torkelson. The fact that Hancock is a seasoned college arm adds to that argument because it would put him closer to Hall and Rodriguez's timeline, and as we've seen from our disappointing Cavalry days, you can never have too many pitching prospects. 

Nothing wrong with favoring Hancock over Torkelson but what if Torkelson could be a league average third baseman? 

A scout from an American League team called Torkelson’s swing a work of art. His power, the scout said, was an easy, breezy fury that can turn fences in any direction into fly-by zones. It was a view shared by a National League scout who especially likes that Torkelson’s swing is short and not the longer version that in the big leagues can be beaten or exploited.

That same National League scout, familiar with the Pac-12, believes Torkelson could be a better hitter, with demonstrably more power, than Andrew Vaughn, the right-handed masher who last year played for Cal and who was snagged by the White Sox with the 2019 draft’s third overall pick.

Torkelson has another advantage, which to a sideline fan might seem trivial but to a scout means everything: age. Torkelson doesn’t turn 21 until next August, almost three months after Hancock, and five months later than Martin.

It means, throughout his competitive life, he has been working against generally older opponents who haven’t beaten up on the kid. Even a few months of difference there will show up on a scout’s notebook or on an analyst’s laptop.

Torkelson has one tactical soft-spot compared with Martin: He’s a first baseman. For now, anyway, and this is where Torkelson’s future intrigues.

Torkelson played his prep years as a shortstop and third baseman and sits at first base at ASU only because the Sun Devils infield is supreme. As many as three ASU first-rounders are expected to be nabbed next June.

The National League scout said any team drafting Torkelson would be wise to at least explore third base. Nor did the same scout disagree with those who believe Torkelson might fit in left field, or even right field. He is, the scout said, a corner-position player —infield or outfield, with of course his right-handed throwing arm making third base a preference over first base.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, 7Mo said:

Nothing wrong with favoring Hancock over Torkelson but what if Torkelson could be a league average third baseman? 

A scout from an American League team called Torkelson’s swing a work of art. His power, the scout said, was an easy, breezy fury that can turn fences in any direction into fly-by zones. It was a view shared by a National League scout who especially likes that Torkelson’s swing is short and not the longer version that in the big leagues can be beaten or exploited.

That same National League scout, familiar with the Pac-12, believes Torkelson could be a better hitter, with demonstrably more power, than Andrew Vaughn, the right-handed masher who last year played for Cal and who was snagged by the White Sox with the 2019 draft’s third overall pick.

Torkelson has another advantage, which to a sideline fan might seem trivial but to a scout means everything: age. Torkelson doesn’t turn 21 until next August, almost three months after Hancock, and five months later than Martin.

It means, throughout his competitive life, he has been working against generally older opponents who haven’t beaten up on the kid. Even a few months of difference there will show up on a scout’s notebook or on an analyst’s laptop.

Torkelson has one tactical soft-spot compared with Martin: He’s a first baseman. For now, anyway, and this is where Torkelson’s future intrigues.

Torkelson played his prep years as a shortstop and third baseman and sits at first base at ASU only because the Sun Devils infield is supreme. As many as three ASU first-rounders are expected to be nabbed next June.

The National League scout said any team drafting Torkelson would be wise to at least explore third base. Nor did the same scout disagree with those who believe Torkelson might fit in left field, or even right field. He is, the scout said, a corner-position player —infield or outfield, with of course his right-handed throwing arm making third base a preference over first base.

I find it difficult to believe a player pegged to 1B in college can learn to play league-average third at a ML-level. Third base is not someplace a team should bank on hiding a defensive liability. It can work in short stints, but Torkelson would be expected to have a longterm role on the team. If he were to begin playing 3B regularly this season to improve his draft stock and showed competence, that changes. I just don't want to assume a guy can move to a difficult defensive position without evidence. However, I do think we've seen enough from Mancini that a good enough athlete can learn left field. I do not know how Torkelson's overall athleticism compares to Trey, but most said Trey was a lead-footed, 1B/DH only type and while he would never fool someone into thinking he's a strong defensive corner outfielder, he has been passable. JMO

 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, WalkWithElias said:

I find it difficult to believe a player pegged to 1B in college can learn to play league-average third at a ML-level. Third base is not someplace a team should bank on hiding a defensive liability. It can work in short stints, but Torkelson would be expected to have a longterm role on the team. If he were to begin playing 3B regularly this season to improve his draft stock and showed competence, that changes. I just don't want to assume a guy can move to a difficult defensive position without evidence. However, I do think we've seen enough from Mancini that a good enough athlete can learn left field. I do not know how Torkelson's overall athleticism compares to Trey, but most said Trey was a lead-footed, 1B/DH only type and while he would never fool someone into thinking he's a strong defensive corner outfielder, he has been passable. JMO

 

But first base is hard.

 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, WalkWithElias said:

I find it difficult to believe a player pegged to 1B in college can learn to play league-average third at a ML-level. Third base is not someplace a team should bank on hiding a defensive liability.

I'm not sure you read the piece correctly. It says he's at first because there could be three other first rounders in that same infield. Also says he played SS and 3B in high school. I have no knowledge of his actual abilities at all, but I think the scout is saying that his drafting team shouldn't just assume that he's a defensive liability. 

I know the draft happens in-season, but do these guys actually work out for teams pre-draft? Seems like a good reason to entertain a later draft with a combine so skills like these can be assessed.

Quote

 

Torkelson played his prep years as a shortstop and third baseman and sits at first base at ASU only because the Sun Devils infield is supreme. As many as three ASU first-rounders are expected to be nabbed next June.

The National League scout said any team drafting Torkelson would be wise to at least explore third base.

 

 

  • Upvote 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'm not sure you read the piece correctly. It says he's at first because there could be three other first rounders in that same infield. Also says he played SS and 3B in high school. I have no knowledge of his actual abilities at all, but I think the scout is saying that his drafting team shouldn't just assume that he's a defensive liability. 

I know the draft happens in-season, but do these guys actually work out for teams pre-draft? Seems like a good reason to entertain a later draft with a combine so skills like these can be assessed.

 

I'm skeptical about Torkelson at 3B, but it is true, Alika Williams and Gage Workman are legit defenders at SS and 3B respectively and Day 1 talents. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'm not sure you read the piece correctly. It says he's at first because there could be three other first rounders in that same infield. Also says he played SS and 3B in high school. I have no knowledge of his actual abilities at all, but I think the scout is saying that his drafting team shouldn't just assume that he's a defensive liability. 

I know the draft happens in-season, but do these guys actually work out for teams pre-draft? Seems like a good reason to entertain a later draft with a combine so skills like these can be assessed.

 

Colleges will typically have a "pro day" in the fall where scouts come on campus to see a workout. And the college coaches might have numerous conversations with pro scouts about what they've seen in practice. It would be unusual IMO for a guy like Torkelson to "only" work at first base given the number of practices that go into a college year. Guys typically get moved around a lot so the staff knows who they have flexibility with and who they don't if they need to move guys unexpectedly.

Outside of that, because of the timing, I think it'd be unusual for a college player to work out in the spring leading up to the draft but they might have in the fall or winter preceding. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I'm skeptical about Torkelson at 3B, but it is true, Alika Williams and Gage Workman are legit defenders at SS and 3B respectively and Day 1 talents. 

Do you have an opinion as to whether Torkelson could be an adequate left or right fielder?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, 7Mo said:

Do you have an opinion as to whether Torkelson could be an adequate left or right fielder?

Haven't paid enough attention to him yet. The body doesn't scream outfielder, he's not going to be fast enough to help you out there. I don't know how well he throws, I've mainly watched him hit when I was watching ASU games for Hunter Bishop. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Haven't paid enough attention to him yet. The body doesn't scream outfielder, he's not going to be fast enough to help you out there. I don't know how well he throws, I've mainly watched him hit when I was watching ASU games for Hunter Bishop. 

Thanks.

Agree or disagree with the following:

That same National League scout, familiar with the Pac-12, believes Torkelson could be a better hitter, with demonstrably more power, than Andrew Vaughn, the right-handed masher who last year played for Cal and who was snagged by the White Sox with the 2019 draft’s third overall pick.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2018 End of Season Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2019 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






  • Posts

    • Harrison is the 5th ranked MLB according to Walter Football. He's projected by them to be a 3-5 round guy. I would think he's likely a reach in the 3rd much less the 2nd. I'd be ok drafting him for WIL in the 4th, but he's not the stud MLB that I think we need. Conversely, I think Braun or Jordan Brooks would be a better 2nd LB taken by the Ravens. And I think they need 2 guys! I also like Anferee Jennings at the WIL.          
    • I played up to when I was 16.  Couldn’t hit a lick but caught everything hit closes to me.   Turned into a pitcher and could throw the ball up into the eighties at 16.   The coach  I had was more interested in getting to the bar after the game so everything I learned was on my own.  My junior year in high school my buddies talked me into playing lacrosse where i dislocated my right shoulder and could never throw a ball over 50 mph after that. 
    • Well, I got it and started a season.  And Alex Cobb had to LEAVE THE FIRST GAME IN THE SECOND INNING WITH A LEG INJURY.  
    • Never played organized sports.  In my youth, Dad was an alcoholic and Mom did anything she could to keep the family together.  I would just go off by myself with a piece of wood and imitate O's games.  I had every batting stance from each everyday player down to a tee.  And just like "Stankee Classics", the O's won every time. Fortunately, Dad checked himself into AA when I was 14 (?), and never had another drink for the remaining 25 years of his life.  And, it is passed down.  The other 5 siblings are drinkers, but only 2 are full blown alchies.  I haven't had anything in 10+ years and don't miss it. And probably that's why:
    • Are we related?  
    • After I tore one of mine, before it was fixed, I went to a Virginia Tech football game. Big play happened, everyone jumps up, I land slightly awkardly and *bam*.  Shooting pain in my knee.  Agony.  That also happened after tear #2, when my regular doc was on reserve duty, and backup doc said "I don't think you really tore anything, just rest for a week or two and go back to playing soccer." Like a minute into my first game back, same thing, shooting pain in the knee.  Went back to the backup doc, got an MRI, and whatta you know, he said it was the cleanest ACL tear he'd ever seen.
    • In 1880 the average batting average of the 55 qualifiers was .256, and the standard deviation was 0.037. In 1893 the average was .290 and the standard was still 0.037 In 1941 the average was .282 and the standard deviation .033. In 2000 the average was .282 and the standard deviation 0.028. In 2019 the average was .272 and the standard deviation was .027. That may not seem like so much of a difference, but George Gore was 2.8 standard deviations above the (qualifier) average when he hit .360 in 1880.  Ted Williams was 3.8 when he hit .401, but he was a freak.  Tim Anderson was 2.3 last year. Since the peak of the 1990s average have fallen about 20 points, while the spread continues to tighten up as it has since the beginning of time.  As players get better the distance between best and worst gradually shrinks.  To hit .400 today a batter would be almost five standard deviations above the qualifier average.  I'm reasonably sure that's never happened.  Hugh Duffy was less than three when he hit .440 in '94.  Tony Gwynn was only at 3.48 when he hit .394 in 1994, and that was in a short season.  Just hitting .350 today is almost three standard deviations from the qualifier average. Yaz was about 2.6 above the AL mark in '68 when he hit .301.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...