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Greg Pappas

An Early Look at the 2020 Draft's Top Prospects

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25 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Thanks.

Agree or disagree with the following:

That same National League scout, familiar with the Pac-12, believes Torkelson could be a better hitter, with demonstrably more power, than Andrew Vaughn, the right-handed masher who last year played for Cal and who was snagged by the White Sox with the 2019 draft’s third overall pick.

Yeah, the raw power is bigger. More raw bat speed as well so the absolute hit ceiling is higher. But if I had to bet who had a better OBP in their career, I'd go Vaughn easy, he has short levers, premium bat control, and excellent pitch recognition/zone judgement. 

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3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Yeah, the raw power is bigger. More raw bat speed as well so the absolute hit ceiling is higher. But if I had to bet who had a better OBP in their career, I'd go Vaughn easy, he has short levers, premium bat control, and excellent pitch recognition/zone judgement. 

Thanks for the detail in the explanation. Appreciate it.

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The debate over whether to take Hancock or Torkelson (assuming there's no shake up at the top of the draft class, and that Martin goes #1 to the Tigers) is interesting. The player with more potential (Hancock) is also the player who is more likely to crash and burn. The guy with the lower ceiling (Torkelson) will probably have a better chance to reach that ceiling. Such a conundrum.

Since 1991 the Orioles have drafted 21 pitchers before the second round, and I believe the best of the lot was Kevin Gausman and his 10 WAR in 6 seasons as an Oriole.  Most of those 21 never pitched an inning at the major league level. That's a miserable rate of success, and a prime reason the Orioles have been bottom dwellers for most of that time. Somebody stated previously in this thread that the failure of our vaunted "Cavalry" back in the day proved that you can never have enough pitching. IMO it proved the exact opposite: drafting a lot of pitching (especially at the top of the draft) is a fool's game. Too many young pitchers get hurt and/or fail to provide meaningful value at the major league level for a team in the Orioles' present position to gamble on that choice. 

Just pulling numbers and comparisons out of thin air for the purpose of discussion -- let's say the team calculates that Hancock has a 50% chance of being Beau Hale , a 40% chance of being Dylan Bundy, and a 10% chance of being Gerrit Cole. While Torkelson has a 30% chance of being Billy Rowell, a 40% chance of being Trey Mancini, and a 30% chance of being Paul Konerko. Who do you take?

In that scenario I take the position player every time.

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On 11/28/2019 at 3:23 AM, ShoelesJoe said:

The debate over whether to take Hancock or Torkelson (assuming there's no shake up at the top of the draft class, and that Martin goes #1 to the Tigers) is interesting. The player with more potential (Hancock) is also the player who is more likely to crash and burn. The guy with the lower ceiling (Torkelson) will probably have a better chance to reach that ceiling. Such a conundrum.

Since 1991 the Orioles have drafted 21 pitchers before the second round, and I believe the best of the lot was Kevin Gausman and his 10 WAR in 6 seasons as an Oriole.  Most of those 21 never pitched an inning at the major league level. That's a miserable rate of success, and a prime reason the Orioles have been bottom dwellers for most of that time. Somebody stated previously in this thread that the failure of our vaunted "Cavalry" back in the day proved that you can never have enough pitching. IMO it proved the exact opposite: drafting a lot of pitching (especially at the top of the draft) is a fool's game. Too many young pitchers get hurt and/or fail to provide meaningful value at the major league level for a team in the Orioles' present position to gamble on that choice. 

Just pulling numbers and comparisons out of thin air for the purpose of discussion -- let's say the team calculates that Hancock has a 50% chance of being Beau Hale , a 40% chance of being Dylan Bundy, and a 10% chance of being Gerrit Cole. While Torkelson has a 30% chance of being Billy Rowell, a 40% chance of being Trey Mancini, and a 30% chance of being Paul Konerko. Who do you take?

In that scenario I take the position player every time.

I lean to position players as well. But with Chris Holt's impact on the system, I am more open to a polished power college pitcher. If Torkelson can play a solid 3B, or even corner OF, I would say the decision is easier.

I am curious to see if a legit HS player enters the picture. I know we expect Elias to favor college players, but we'll see who pops up in his evaluation.

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31 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I lean to position players as well. But with Chris Holt's impact on the system, I am more open to a polished power college pitcher. If Torkelson can play a solid 3B, or even corner OF, I would say the decision is easier.

I am curious to see if a legit HS player enters the picture. I know we expect Elias to favor college players, but we'll see who pops up in his evaluation.

Ed Howard is really the only prep guy on my radar that is a 1-2 consideration at this point. The bat needs to take a step, but the potential is there. All the interesting outfielders are either corner guys or without impact bat potential.

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All things fairly equal, I lean towards position.  Martin preferred if he's there at 2.

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On 12/3/2019 at 11:14 PM, sportsfan8703 said:

2019: Rutschman

2020: Hancock or Martin

2021: Rocker

That’s a good way to start a rebuild. 

Not to mention our competitive balance pick this year is basically another first round pick.  Opportunities are there, let's hope we capitalize. 

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Feel like we are in a no lose position.  Likely either get Martin or Hancock.  There are merits to either being added to our system.

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Like many of us have reiterated, it's still early in the process (heck, it's in the thread title :) ).  We'll start a new thread in the Spring as the HS and college seasons get underway and we'll be excited to see how things unfold.

 

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21 hours ago, Spl51 said:

https://www.prospectslive.com/mlb-draft/2019/12/4/mlb-2020-mock-draft-10

They have us picking Hancock here. It's kind of just a roll of dice who we will pick there now out of the top 3.

The top 3 is basically locked I think. I've watched a lot of videos on most of the top 15, and I'm pretty sure none of them are gonna challenge the top 3.

Just wait until Ed Howard comes out driving the ball this spring or Reid Detmers gains a couple ticks of velocity or Zamora’s bat takes off. Not saying those things will happen, but there are guys who could jump into that top 3 discussion. Plus I’d argue Gonzales should already be in that discussion.

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2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Just wait until Ed Howard comes out driving the ball this spring or Reid Detmers gains a couple ticks of velocity or Zamora’s bat takes off. Not saying those things will happen, but there are guys who could jump into that top 3 discussion. Plus I’d argue Gonzales should already be in that discussion.

Curious what you think about Cole Wilcox, Hancock's teammate who might be available at 31.

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