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Greg Pappas

An Early Look at the 2020 Draft's Top Prospects

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5 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Curious what you think about Cole Wilcox, Hancock's teammate who might be available at 31.

I think he'd be good value there if healthy and throwing strikes, but he really doesn't fit the profile of a guy this front office will be big on. I think someone like Kyle Nicolas would be more likely if they go with an arm at 31 or 40. 

But I think it's most likely that the trend of premium bats, profile arms continues. 

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4 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Just wait until Ed Howard comes out driving the ball this spring or Reid Detmers gains a couple ticks of velocity or Zamora’s bat takes off. Not saying those things will happen, but there are guys who could jump into that top 3 discussion. Plus I’d argue Gonzales should already be in that discussion.

Gonzales is a distant fourth for me. I see an average second baseman, average runner, average to above average power, with plus contact at most and no projection. To me his stance and swing are really stiff, leading to him being pull happy. 

The other guys would need to prove a lot to make it worth the risk.

 

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12 minutes ago, Spl51 said:

Gonzales is a distant fourth for me. I see an average second baseman, average runner, average to above average power, with plus contact at most and no projection. To me his stance and swing are really stiff, leading to him being pull happy. 

The other guys would need to prove a lot to make it worth the risk.

From what I've seen of Gonzales, he's not pull happy at all, although it may behoove him to try to be, ala Alex Bregman. But it's a high effort swing, but it hasn't given him any trouble vs velocity and while it's not that loose, easy motion, his hands/wrists aren't stiff, they are very quick and agile. 

He has more present raw and game than Martin and currently are pretty much equal on the defensive spectrum. I like Martin more, I think there's more ceiling, but Gonzales is probably just as good at the moment. 

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On 12/13/2019 at 9:46 AM, Luke-OH said:

From what I've seen of Gonzales, he's not pull happy at all, although it may behoove him to try to be, ala Alex Bregman. But it's a high effort swing, but it hasn't given him any trouble vs velocity and while it's not that loose, easy motion, his hands/wrists aren't stiff, they are very quick and agile. 

He has more present raw and game than Martin and currently are pretty much equal on the defensive spectrum. I like Martin more, I think there's more ceiling, but Gonzales is probably just as good at the moment. 

Agreed, Gonzalez’ swing looks very good to me. It’s very quiet, which may be why it looks stiff to some. I think it’s much better than Howard’s presently...

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Just now, joelala said:

Agreed, Gonzalez’ swing looks very good to me. It’s very quiet, which may be why it looks stiff to some. I think it’s much better than Howard’s presently...

Yeah, Howard has a better frame and has notably more defensive value, if he had Gonzales's swing, he'd be the shoo-in #1 prospect. 

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1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

Yeah, Howard has a better frame and has notably more defensive value, if he had Gonzales's swing, he'd be the shoo-in #1 prospect. 

Yup

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3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

@Luke-OH or anyone else’s thoughts...

Better 1B MLB profile, Mountcastle or Torkelson?  

If the advantage is Torkelson, is it enough to draft another 1B?  

Is Mountcastle a 1B?  Is he a LF?  Is he a RF?  Is he a 3B?  Is he a 2B?

The Orioles don't seem to know.

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2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

@Luke-OH or anyone else’s thoughts...

Better 1B MLB profile, Mountcastle or Torkelson?  

If the advantage is Torkelson, is it enough to draft another 1B?  

Torkelson has a better approach and better raw power. There is more risk though, with him not being exposed to nearly the pitching quality Mountcastle has been. They grade out similarly as prospects, basically Torkelson is higher ceiling, higher risk. I don't think you draft at all based on what you have in your system, at least in the first few rounds. 

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21 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is Mountcastle a 1B?  Is he a LF?  Is he a RF?  Is he a 3B?  Is he a 2B?

The Orioles don't seem to know.

SS + 3B + LF = 1B

21 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Torkelson has a better approach and better raw power. There is more risk though, with him not being exposed to nearly the pitching quality Mountcastle has been. They grade out similarly as prospects, basically Torkelson is higher ceiling, higher risk. I don't think you draft at all based on what you have in your system, at least in the first few rounds. 

I would tend to agree with not drafting based off of need in your system. We saw the O’s reach a bit on Grenier and possibly Stewart because of need. However, I do think that since Mountcastle and Torkelson’s controllable time will will significantly overlap, that Torkelson should be eliminated as a potential pick. With all that being said, I think it’s Martin or Hancock right now. 

An ideal scenario would be to nab Hancock with our #2 pick and hope a bat like Pete Crow-Armstrong(mlb #25) is there when we pick at the top of the comp round. 

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On 12/13/2019 at 10:46 AM, Luke-OH said:

From what I've seen of Gonzales, he's not pull happy at all, although it may behoove him to try to be, ala Alex Bregman. But it's a high effort swing, but it hasn't given him any trouble vs velocity and while it's not that loose, easy motion, his hands/wrists aren't stiff, they are very quick and agile. 

He has more present raw and game than Martin and currently are pretty much equal on the defensive spectrum. I like Martin more, I think there's more ceiling, but Gonzales is probably just as good at the moment. 

Obviously things could change, but how much money could you possibly save by picking (reaching for) Gonzales at 2? Would it be worth it? 

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Just now, oceanicvoyage said:

Obviously things could change, but how much money could you possibly save by picking (reaching for) Gonzales at 2? Would it be worth it? 

Not sure, usually depends on where the next team that wants him is picking. If he’d fall a ways, then he’d likely take significant underslot. It’s hard to tease out that scenario this early.

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1 hour ago, Greg Pappas said:

Off the top of my head, the most likely to be firmly in the top 100 picks that’s not listed here is Bryce Jarvis - Duke. Was a draft eligible Soph, had maybe the second best changeup in the 2019 class, athletic build and actions on the mound, profile held back by 89-92 velocity. I liked him a 4-5th round pick. Didn’t pitch competively over the summer and worked on velocity was sitting mid 90s in the fall. 

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Prospects Live just dropped a podcast with their Mock Draft, guessing

DET1 - Torkelson

BAL2 - Hancock

MIA3 - Martin

KC4 - Gonzales

Torkelson they said if Vaughn's a .300/30 HR, he's a .275/40 HR.  So he gets a Rich Man's Pete Alonso early pegging.

Hancock as the sole pitcher, not really draft mates to contrast him with.

Martin I didn't know just how much pure HIT profile pushes him - the comments were he's not too fast, not too powerful.

Gonzales described as 2B all the way, and apparently really made his bones in Cape Cod.  His New Mexico State homepark described as major launching pad.

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