Jump to content
Greg Pappas

An Early Look at the 2020 Draft's Top Prospects

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Curious what you think about Cole Wilcox, Hancock's teammate who might be available at 31.

I think he'd be good value there if healthy and throwing strikes, but he really doesn't fit the profile of a guy this front office will be big on. I think someone like Kyle Nicolas would be more likely if they go with an arm at 31 or 40. 

But I think it's most likely that the trend of premium bats, profile arms continues. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Just wait until Ed Howard comes out driving the ball this spring or Reid Detmers gains a couple ticks of velocity or Zamora’s bat takes off. Not saying those things will happen, but there are guys who could jump into that top 3 discussion. Plus I’d argue Gonzales should already be in that discussion.

Gonzales is a distant fourth for me. I see an average second baseman, average runner, average to above average power, with plus contact at most and no projection. To me his stance and swing are really stiff, leading to him being pull happy. 

The other guys would need to prove a lot to make it worth the risk.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Spl51 said:

Gonzales is a distant fourth for me. I see an average second baseman, average runner, average to above average power, with plus contact at most and no projection. To me his stance and swing are really stiff, leading to him being pull happy. 

The other guys would need to prove a lot to make it worth the risk.

From what I've seen of Gonzales, he's not pull happy at all, although it may behoove him to try to be, ala Alex Bregman. But it's a high effort swing, but it hasn't given him any trouble vs velocity and while it's not that loose, easy motion, his hands/wrists aren't stiff, they are very quick and agile. 

He has more present raw and game than Martin and currently are pretty much equal on the defensive spectrum. I like Martin more, I think there's more ceiling, but Gonzales is probably just as good at the moment. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/13/2019 at 9:46 AM, Luke-OH said:

From what I've seen of Gonzales, he's not pull happy at all, although it may behoove him to try to be, ala Alex Bregman. But it's a high effort swing, but it hasn't given him any trouble vs velocity and while it's not that loose, easy motion, his hands/wrists aren't stiff, they are very quick and agile. 

He has more present raw and game than Martin and currently are pretty much equal on the defensive spectrum. I like Martin more, I think there's more ceiling, but Gonzales is probably just as good at the moment. 

Agreed, Gonzalez’ swing looks very good to me. It’s very quiet, which may be why it looks stiff to some. I think it’s much better than Howard’s presently...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, joelala said:

Agreed, Gonzalez’ swing looks very good to me. It’s very quiet, which may be why it looks stiff to some. I think it’s much better than Howard’s presently...

Yeah, Howard has a better frame and has notably more defensive value, if he had Gonzales's swing, he'd be the shoo-in #1 prospect. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

Yeah, Howard has a better frame and has notably more defensive value, if he had Gonzales's swing, he'd be the shoo-in #1 prospect. 

Yup

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

@Luke-OH or anyone else’s thoughts...

Better 1B MLB profile, Mountcastle or Torkelson?  

If the advantage is Torkelson, is it enough to draft another 1B?  

Is Mountcastle a 1B?  Is he a LF?  Is he a RF?  Is he a 3B?  Is he a 2B?

The Orioles don't seem to know.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

@Luke-OH or anyone else’s thoughts...

Better 1B MLB profile, Mountcastle or Torkelson?  

If the advantage is Torkelson, is it enough to draft another 1B?  

Torkelson has a better approach and better raw power. There is more risk though, with him not being exposed to nearly the pitching quality Mountcastle has been. They grade out similarly as prospects, basically Torkelson is higher ceiling, higher risk. I don't think you draft at all based on what you have in your system, at least in the first few rounds. 

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is Mountcastle a 1B?  Is he a LF?  Is he a RF?  Is he a 3B?  Is he a 2B?

The Orioles don't seem to know.

SS + 3B + LF = 1B

21 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Torkelson has a better approach and better raw power. There is more risk though, with him not being exposed to nearly the pitching quality Mountcastle has been. They grade out similarly as prospects, basically Torkelson is higher ceiling, higher risk. I don't think you draft at all based on what you have in your system, at least in the first few rounds. 

I would tend to agree with not drafting based off of need in your system. We saw the O’s reach a bit on Grenier and possibly Stewart because of need. However, I do think that since Mountcastle and Torkelson’s controllable time will will significantly overlap, that Torkelson should be eliminated as a potential pick. With all that being said, I think it’s Martin or Hancock right now. 

An ideal scenario would be to nab Hancock with our #2 pick and hope a bat like Pete Crow-Armstrong(mlb #25) is there when we pick at the top of the comp round. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/13/2019 at 10:46 AM, Luke-OH said:

From what I've seen of Gonzales, he's not pull happy at all, although it may behoove him to try to be, ala Alex Bregman. But it's a high effort swing, but it hasn't given him any trouble vs velocity and while it's not that loose, easy motion, his hands/wrists aren't stiff, they are very quick and agile. 

He has more present raw and game than Martin and currently are pretty much equal on the defensive spectrum. I like Martin more, I think there's more ceiling, but Gonzales is probably just as good at the moment. 

Obviously things could change, but how much money could you possibly save by picking (reaching for) Gonzales at 2? Would it be worth it? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, oceanicvoyage said:

Obviously things could change, but how much money could you possibly save by picking (reaching for) Gonzales at 2? Would it be worth it? 

Not sure, usually depends on where the next team that wants him is picking. If he’d fall a ways, then he’d likely take significant underslot. It’s hard to tease out that scenario this early.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Greg Pappas said:

Off the top of my head, the most likely to be firmly in the top 100 picks that’s not listed here is Bryce Jarvis - Duke. Was a draft eligible Soph, had maybe the second best changeup in the 2019 class, athletic build and actions on the mound, profile held back by 89-92 velocity. I liked him a 4-5th round pick. Didn’t pitch competively over the summer and worked on velocity was sitting mid 90s in the fall. 

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Prospects Live just dropped a podcast with their Mock Draft, guessing

DET1 - Torkelson

BAL2 - Hancock

MIA3 - Martin

KC4 - Gonzales

Torkelson they said if Vaughn's a .300/30 HR, he's a .275/40 HR.  So he gets a Rich Man's Pete Alonso early pegging.

Hancock as the sole pitcher, not really draft mates to contrast him with.

Martin I didn't know just how much pure HIT profile pushes him - the comments were he's not too fast, not too powerful.

Gonzales described as 2B all the way, and apparently really made his bones in Cape Cod.  His New Mexico State homepark described as major launching pad.

  • Upvote 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores

News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2018 End of Season Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2019 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats







  • Posts

    • That's why people get nostalgic about the pre-free agency days.  There was no discussion of player retention beyond "is he still a positive for the team?"  If yes, then keep him. But I've long since made peace with the fact that the old setup is both awful for players and never, ever coming back.  While fans loved having Mike Cuellar for eight years on absurdly team-friendly terms, maybe Mike Cuellar would have liked some say in where he played and for how much.  And I don't blame him one bit.
    • I’m very jealous of anyone who has a pension as opposed to (or in addition to) a 401 k type plan.    One of the real perks of being a government worker, for example.   I’ve made a nice living as a lawyer but what I’ve saved is what I’ve got coming to me, and nothing else.    My firm won’t be paying me a dime after I retire.   
    • I could see Buck steering the ship for couple years while the Astros deal with the ramifications of this scandal. I think the last thing the Astros want to do here is go with an unknown quantity. 
    • I know it seems counterintuitive, since there are 27 outs in a game and only 4-5 runs scored on average, so that seems like more like .2 runs per out.    But have a look at this base-out matrix, which shows the expected number of runs scored in an inning depending on which bases are occupied and how many outs there are.   This matrix is based on actual game data, not theory.   https://www.google.com/amp/s/thebaseballscholar.com/2017/08/14/sabermetrics-101-re24/amp/ Let’s take the simplest example, the leadoff batter.    If he grounds out (so now it’s bases empty, one out), the expected runs in the inning are .243.    If he’s safe at first (so runner on first, nobody out), the expected runs are .831.    So, the increase in expected runs between making that play or not is .590.      There are other situations on the chart where the differential is higher or lower than that.    On the high side, let’s say you’ve got runners on 1st and 2nd and one out.    Make a play there to record an out and hold the runners, and the expected runs are only .343.    Fail to make that play and so it’s bases loaded and only one out, and the expected runs increase to 1.520. Anyway, someone did a weighted average of all these scenarios and came up with .6 for an average.    If I remember correctly.       
    • Connolly was and apparently still is literally Buck's PR man, so I'm not surprised by his thoughts on this matter. 
    • Dan Connolly has a good column in The Athletic about it.   He said that a few weeks ago, he would have thought the Astros were the LAST team that would ever consider hiring Buck for the reasons you give.   And that those reasons still exist.   But in terms of taking over leadership of a talented team in crisis, in terms of making sure no further cheating takes place and protecting the integrity moving forward, suddenly he MIGHT be the best guy they could bring in.   It's a good read.
    • I was single for a while in 2010.  4 different women made me watch "He's just not that into you" with them and 1 made me watch "Eat Pray Love".    And I even watched "Sex and the City 2" a couple of times.   Let me tell you Sex and City 2 is not a good movie by anyone's viewpoint.   If I could get through them a wife should be able to make it through a war movie here or there. 
  • Popular Contributors

  • Popular Now

×
×
  • Create New...