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An Early Look at the 2020 Draft's Top Prospects

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8 minutes ago, dbmillertime said:

Thank you.  I’m in the infant stages in learning about pre-draft prospects.  My main question is a what point does a team skew away from the BPA draft philosophy?  I understand our farm system still has quite a ways to go, but it seems much more pitcher heavy.  

Never. 

There are too many uncertainties with draft picks and the development time is far greater than with football or basketball. And even ignoring those things, the Braves had Austin Riley, a third baseman, on the verge of his major league debut. Yet they went out and signed Josh Donaldson, and brought Riley up as an outfielder. 

You just find the best talent you can and make it work. Same with pitchers. If you have 5 good starters, you still want to upgrade on those 5 any time you can. 

 

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7 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Never. 

There are too many uncertainties with draft picks and the development time is far greater than with football or basketball. And even ignoring those things, the Braves had Austin Riley, a third baseman, on the verge of his major league debut. Yet they went out and signed Josh Donaldson, and brought Riley up as an outfielder. 

You just find the best talent you can and make it work. Same with pitchers. If you have 5 good starters, you still want to upgrade on those 5 any time you can. 

 

Or just have a sixth in reserve for when one of the five go down.

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On 12/23/2019 at 11:55 AM, LookinUp said:

Honestly, what I really want in this draft is a prospect who is legitimately good enough to keep us from taking Torkelson. 

I'm sure I'd love the guy, but I want players that give positional value or #1/2 starter value. Bat only guys, while they can be awesome (see Fielder, Prince), just don't excite me.

I can relate to that. If we wind up with Torkelson, I won't mind of course. But I am increasingly leaning toward Austin Martin ... From what I'm reading, he would be a reasonable #2 pick -- even if he'd be a reach at #1. I just love the defensive reputation, the all-around athleticism and playing up-the-middle ... It's also a major position of need in our farm system. 

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Going back to the 2000 draft moving forward, the success rate of a college positional player far exceeds the success of a college pitchers looking at only the top 5 picks.   In the years 2000-2016, there were 14 position players that had a high impact in the mlb while only 4 on the pitching side ( gray, cole, price, and verlander) and Gray is still even debatable.   For the O’s in 2020,  I would concentrate on A Martin, N Gonzalez, and Torkelson in that order.

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2 hours ago, WI O’s Fan said:

Going back to the 2000 draft moving forward, the success rate of a college positional player far exceeds the success of a college pitchers looking at only the top 5 picks.   In the years 2000-2016, there were 14 position players that had a high impact in the mlb while only 4 on the pitching side ( gray, cole, price, and verlander) and Gray is still even debatable.   For the O’s in 2020,  I would concentrate on A Martin, N Gonzalez, and Torkelson in that order.

I agree with the sentiment, but I think you forgot Strasburg (and Matusz & Gausman?? :) ).

Other college pitchers in first round that did/doing well - Chris Sale at 13 in '10, Max Scherzer at 11 in '06, Walker Buehler at 24 in '15, Marcus Stroman at 22 in  '12, Aaron Nola at 7 in '14, Jered Weaver (before arm fell off) at 12 in '04, Tim Linecum (before arm fell off) at 10 in '06,  and maybe Trevor Bauer at 3 in '11. That's not a lot though - college position players have had better outcomes.  

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On 12/28/2019 at 11:49 PM, Luke-OH said:

It’s too early to cement Rocker as 1-1, besides any uncertainty about a pitcher staying healthy for 2 years, there are other players who could jump. Outside of more unexpected jumps, there is Alex Binelas who had a 1.047 OPS as an 18 year old true freshman in the SEC. if he gives teams confidence he’ll stick at 3B, he’s an easy 1-1 candidate. Then there is Braylon Bishop, who is a HS CF with an absurd assortment of tools. They don’t all transfer in game yet but if they do over the next 18 months, another easy 1-1 candidate. Then there is Brady House who is in the discussion for 1-1 already.

 

 

Not too mention, it’s way too early to assume we’ll be picking 1-1.   

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On 12/28/2019 at 11:49 PM, Luke-OH said:

It’s too early to cement Rocker as 1-1, besides any uncertainty about a pitcher staying healthy for 2 years, there are other players who could jump. Outside of more unexpected jumps, there is Alex Binelas who had a 1.047 OPS as an 18 year old true freshman in the SEC. if he gives teams confidence he’ll stick at 3B, he’s an easy 1-1 candidate. Then there is Braylon Bishop, who is a HS CF with an absurd assortment of tools. They don’t all transfer in game yet but if they do over the next 18 months, another easy 1-1 candidate. Then there is Brady House who is in the discussion for 1-1 already.

 

 

It may not make much of a difference, but Binelas plays in the ACC, not SEC.

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1 hour ago, Gatoriole said:

It may not make much of a difference, but Binelas plays in the ACC, not SEC.

I think I made the same ACC/SEC mix up on a Louisville guy last year, for some reason when I think Louisville my brain jumps to SEC for unknown reasons. Thanks for correcting me.

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A Kiley McDaniel distillation from his FG chat today:

The way I explained it to someone who asked me this in person recently is that Torkelson has been the same guy for 2 years and probably will be that same guy leading up to the draft, while Hancock (durability) and Martin (is he a 2B/CF or SS) will move up/down based on how Feb/March go.
 
1:14
So if Hancock/Martin both move south, then Tork is the best option. If they both move up, Tork is probably the 3rd best option.
 
1:15
which I understand that seems self evident, but if I were giving variance grades for today to draft day:

Hancock: High
Martin: Medium
Torkelson: Low

...and today they're all pretty close, but we think Martin has a slight edge.
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1 hour ago, OrioleDog said:

A Kiley McDaniel distillation from his FG chat today:

The way I explained it to someone who asked me this in person recently is that Torkelson has been the same guy for 2 years and probably will be that same guy leading up to the draft, while Hancock (durability) and Martin (is he a 2B/CF or SS) will move up/down based on how Feb/March go.
 
1:14
So if Hancock/Martin both move south, then Tork is the best option. If they both move up, Tork is probably the 3rd best option.
 
1:15
which I understand that seems self evident, but if I were giving variance grades for today to draft day:

Hancock: High
Martin: Medium
Torkelson: Low

...and today they're all pretty close, but we think Martin has a slight edge.

Good post. This spring will give a good idea about whether Martin can stay at short. He hasn't been playing there. 

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The positive spin to put on this is that the top 3 are so closely grouped, that we will get a break on our pool money because we’re picking 1/2. Meaning the #2 pick could cost 500k less to sign and that allows us to pick better players in rounds 1A-10. 

Sort of like as if we traded down from 1/1 to 1/2 and acquired more picks. 

Of course you want to have your pick of the litter at 1/1 though, but there is some positive spin. 

Edited by sportsfan8703

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The Rays just traded an awful for Jose Martinez and one of the big pieces they got back was to move up from comp pick rd B to comp pick rd A.   So 30 or so slots. So the Rays must really like this draft class. 

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https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-mlb-draft/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0&pageitems=10000000000000&pagenum=0&team=

I don't know when they update, but I was looking more for who might be there at 30/39.  Interestingly Blaze is listed at 29.  I wonder if people would like him better as a Comp A pick.

Only a few other names even rang a bell, so clearly it wasn't a super useful exercise for me.  Haha.

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I guess our raw draft spots will tick up with Astros picks going poof.  If we end up picking Nick Gonzales 1-2, I'm not going to know whether to attribute it to Elias trying for a Correa/McCullers-type move or to the team's newest Scouting Consultant.

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