Jump to content
Greg Pappas

Franchise Expectations Over the Next Four Years

Recommended Posts

Just now, Redskins Rick said:

Maybe.

I believe it was yourself, one time, when we was talking about players, injuries and predicting the future, something along the line, just because they got hurt for us at XXX date, means they would have for somebody else at  that same time frame.

So, he could have thrown college ball, got drafted by the Orioles and still suffered a TJ injury.

Sure.  It's unknowable if Harvey would have been hurt in college.  But he's a pitcher.  An average pitcher gets hurt about once every two-and-a-half years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

Have you been following the minors at all. Harvey will never contribute at the ML level

He's on the 40 man roster last I checked. That tells me that Plan A is for him to contribute which to me automatically puts him closer than some others being discussed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, TINSTAAPP said:

The Astros did have some building blocks in Altuve, Springer, and Keuchel before Luhnow's arrival. Do the Orioles have three future 20+ WAR players that are 24 years old or under currently in their organization  like the Astros did?

Well, when Altuve was signed as an amateur free agent, he was certainly not being predicted to have a 20+ WAR career. Even in 2011 he was seen as 13th out of 20 prospects in the Astros system.  Springer was picked in the first round of the draft immediately before Luhnow arrived.  So the equivalents would be Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall.    Could they have 20+ WAR careers?  Don't know.   At the time that Luhnow joined the organization, Keuchel, who was a 7th round draft pick who was certainly not being projected as a 20+ WAR player.

You make the assumption that these guys were "building blocks" at the time the organization was changed over.  Nobody saw them as that.   You only can do that by looking back now AFTER the fact.   So yeah, certainly  3 of our top 20 prospects or more could certainly develop unpredictably better and end up having similar trajectory three years from now

Here is what the top 20 Astros prospect gradings by one "expert" read like in 2011 when Luhnow arrived....notice both of these guys were 13 and 14 out of the top 20 for the Astros.  Development is an important thing, so perhaps some of the players you are thinking might never project to much in our organization currently end up being developed differently under current management than the previous one.   

 

13) Jose Altuve, 2B, Grade 😄 You have to love the numbers, but can a 5-5 player really succeed at higher levels? We'll find out this year.

14) Dallas Keuchel, LHP, Grade 😄 Throws strikes, gets ground balls, could surprise as fifth starter type.

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/12/28/1900512/houston-astros-top-20-prospects-for-2011

 

And hopefully, ME won't trade away Josh Hader, Domingo Santana, Brett Phillips and Adam Houser for Carlos Gomez like Luhnow did...lol. 

 

 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, theocean said:

And those were some pretty big building blocks. The O's don't have anything close to that. Orioles prospects usually get pretty overrated here - I mean, people were going crazy over Cedric Mullins and Joey Rickard in the offseason. McKenna had one good year in the minors and people are thinking he could be an all-star. 

Hays, Diaz, Mountcastle, and crew might become decent major leagues - but they certainly aren't locks to do so. I'd advise against counting chickens before they hatch.

Haha, who went crazy over Joey Rickard? I think that is one guy we have always been level-headed about - fourth outfielder at best.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess I’ll be the village pessimist.   The earliest we will be decent is 2022.    But there’s no guarantee we will be good any time in the next 10 years.    We’re starting from further behind than the Astros were, it’s not clear that Elias inherited the lurking talent that Luhnow did with respect to a few key players, our divisional competition is much better than the Astros’ is/was, the league has caught up to what the Astros were doing analytically and it will be hard to re-create anything approaching that advantage, and in the end we don’t know if Elias will be as good a GM as Luhnow even though he was an important cog in that organization.    A lot has to go right for our organization to be a winning team in 2022.   

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I guess I’ll be the village pessimist.   The earliest we will be decent is 2022.    But there’s no guarantee we will be good any time in the next 10 years.    We’re starting from further behind than the Astros were, it’s not clear that Elias inherited the lurking talent that Luhnow did with respect to a few key players, our divisional competition is much better than the Astros’ is/was, the league has caught up to what the Astros were doing analytically and it will be hard to re-create anything approaching that advantage, and in the end we don’t know if Elias will be as good a GM as Luhnow even though he was an important cog in that organization.    A lot has to go right for our organization to be a winning team in 2022.   

Yes, but then who would have thought in 2011 we would be where we ended up in 2014?  Not me, for sure.  That is what makes it fun...the unpredictability of players and teams and GMs and choices,  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

Haha, who went crazy over Joey Rickard? I think that is one guy we have always been level-headed about - fourth outfielder at best.

Right, that was Flaherty folks went crazy over.  Zobrist light they said.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, tntoriole said:

Yes, but then who would have thought in 2011 we would be where we ended up in 2014?  Not me, for sure.  That is what makes it fun...the unpredictability of players and teams and GMs and choices,  

I don't want to derail this thread but shortly after he showed up in 2011 DD said he expected us to be .500 in 2012, so there is at least one. I remember  laughing. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

I don't want to derail this thread but shortly after he showed up in 2011 DD said he expected us to be .500 in 2012, so there is at least one. I remember  laughing. 

Yes, me too and suppose DD had said he expected 90 plus wins in 2012....93 to be exact.  Nobody saw that.  Nobody. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Frobby said:

“Never?”    That remains to be seen.   He’s certainly not even remotely ready to contribute to the major league team.    But he’s looking healthy and still has a premium fastball.   Hopefully he will stay healthy and make progress in the remainder of the season.   He’s had several good games, he’s just been completely inconsistent from one start to the next.   

He lost so much development time. I hope he gets it together. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I guess I’ll be the village pessimist.   The earliest we will be decent is 2022.    But there’s no guarantee we will be good any time in the next 10 years.    We’re starting from further behind than the Astros were, it’s not clear that Elias inherited the lurking talent that Luhnow did with respect to a few key players, our divisional competition is much better than the Astros’ is/was, the league has caught up to what the Astros were doing analytically and it will be hard to re-create anything approaching that advantage, and in the end we don’t know if Elias will be as good a GM as Luhnow even though he was an important cog in that organization.    A lot has to go right for our organization to be a winning team in 2022.   

I hear you, but Elias has inherited more starting pitcher prospects than expected. If three of those young guys pan out, a big if of course, then things could get real interesting. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Frobby said:

“Never?”    That remains to be seen.   He’s certainly not even remotely ready to contribute to the major league team.    But he’s looking healthy and still has a premium fastball.   Hopefully he will stay healthy and make progress in the remainder of the season.   He’s had several good games, he’s just been completely inconsistent from one start to the next.   

I could see Hunter moving to the bullpen at some point. He could be really good there. 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Frobby said:

I guess I’ll be the village pessimist.   The earliest we will be decent is 2022.    But there’s no guarantee we will be good any time in the next 10 years.    We’re starting from further behind than the Astros were, it’s not clear that Elias inherited the lurking talent that Luhnow did with respect to a few key players, our divisional competition is much better than the Astros’ is/was, the league has caught up to what the Astros were doing analytically and it will be hard to re-create anything approaching that advantage, and in the end we don’t know if Elias will be as good a GM as Luhnow even though he was an important cog in that organization.    A lot has to go right for our organization to be a winning team in 2022.   

The O's current situation and the Astros' situation when Luhnow took over are pretty different. So, I think it's pretty silly to try and compare the progress of the two side-by-side. The Astros' rebuilding path won't be the same for the Orioles.

In order for any team to be successful, they need to have a solid starting rotation #1-5. Right now, I don't think the O's have the talent in their farm system to do that. A lot depends on DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez. But, I think for the O's to have any chance of being good by 2022 - they're going to need to find some diamonds in the rough via trades and free agency. It can't just all come from the draft. 

Hopefully, John Means is the start of that.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2021 Minor League Depth Chart

2021 Prospect Power Rankings

2020 Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2020 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






×
×
  • Create New...