In 1918 during the flu pandemic people were also going off to World War 1.I think they can social distance for a few more weeks. War and pandemic are a little tougher then seeing all your friends.
The other part is most important, treatment that works.About six or more drugs being tested. Hopefully one shows great promise.But as with the peak in the US ,the real experts have different timelines but most in late April.
Stay safe and good luck Can affect anyone. I know someone who is on a ventilator.Healthy 45 yo male. I stay away from most parts and people in the hospital.
Four stages of CV response:
1) social distancing/hand washing/cleaning
2) widespread/quick testing/contact tracing
3) treatments for symptoms (reducing lethality to the laboratory equivalent of influenza)
As it relates to baseball, once you have #2, the games can be held, but without fans in attendance. Once you get to #3, combined with expected seasonality (not elimination, but diminishment), you can return to having fans at the games. This also assumes existing measures have first reduced the spread dramatically (June at the earliest if effective treatments have emerged).
My personal take is that #3 is a HUGE variable, that can’t be predicted. If I’m MLB, I start planning on a resumption of games in mid-May with the expectation that they will be in empty stadiums until #3 has been achieved in all parts of the country.
I mentioned somewhere that OOTP21 has a new 3D ballpark creator. One of my dreams has always been to accurately model Union Park, the home of the 1890s Orioles. There have been many issues with that, mainly that there are very, very few photographs of the inside of the park. The common one is linked here, from the big late-September 1898 pennant race deciding game with Boston.
Luckily, a site called Deadballbaseball has a Sanborn fire insurance map of the area around the park, complete with stands and fences. From that and the photograph (you can just make out the LF foul pole, which helps anchor all the other measurements) I was able to use some calipers and drafting tools to determine the fence distances. Green Cathedrals listed the LF line as 300', RF as 350'. My little drawing matched that very closely.
As far as I know, nobody ever has had complete dimensions of the place, at least not in 100+ years. But now we know:
Angle just past RF: 390'
Straightaway RF: 371'
Bend in deep LC: 415'
Z bend in straightaway LF: 387/395'
Deepest part of the LF bleachers: 365'
LF line: 300'
Home to the backstop: 46'
I know this is pretty obscure, but as someone who's studied the NL Orioles for many years this is a big thing. Now I just need to get the stadium generator to work in OOTP and I can have some games in a park that was torn down in 1904.
Abbott labs is rolling out widespread testing (50k per day) of FDA approved tests that yield results in less than 15 minutes. As I said previously, frequent player testing is necessary before any discussion of playing games again can occur. With this rollout, the question will shift to playing games in empty stadiums, or waiting until frequent public testing advances as far as it has in South Korea (though I question our ability to have same level of public compliance). But this development is important, and could force some tough questions on MLB and the players union.