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Aristotelian

Is This the Bottom?

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Just now, panick said:

On Wall Street that's called a "dead cat bounce".

I don't understand why how bad the O's are has been a continuing topic on this board. I thought that after trading away some players last year and knowing how bad the farm system is, that people were aware that the O's were going to be bad for at least two seasons. Does it really matter if they are historically bad rather than just bad?

There aren't many players on the 25 man roster that are actually major league players, and it's going to take time the find and develop those players. Constantly complaining about how bad the O's are is not going to speed up that process.

I find it interesting because it is very rare for a team to be this bad two years in a row.  This isn't run of the mill 100 loss season bad we are talking about here.  There is a reason behind the old saying "every team wins 54 and loses 54".

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1 minute ago, panick said:

On Wall Street that's called a "dead cat bounce".

I don't understand why how bad the O's are has been a continuing topic on this board. I thought that after trading away some players last year and knowing how bad the farm system is, that people were aware that the O's were going to be bad for at least two seasons. Does it really matter if they are historically bad rather than just bad?

There aren't many players on the 25 man roster that are actually major league players, and it's going to take time the find and develop those players. Constantly complaining about how bad the O's are is not going to speed up that process.

I believe it takes time to go through the 5 stages of Grief.  Some people get stuck. 

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5 minutes ago, panick said:

On Wall Street that's called a "dead cat bounce".

I don't understand why how bad the O's are has been a continuing topic on this board. I thought that after trading away some players last year and knowing how bad the farm system is, that people were aware that the O's were going to be bad for at least two seasons. Does it really matter if they are historically bad rather than just bad?

There aren't many players on the 25 man roster that are actually major league players, and it's going to take time the find and develop those players. Constantly complaining about how bad the O's are is not going to speed up that process.

Nobody is complaining, just asking if it can possibly get worse and how much. The OP was actually calling the bottom, i.e. speculating that it gets better from here. You can disagree or ignore but please do not mischaracterize.

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6 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

This has been the response to anyone questioning the team lately... I'm pretty sure 99% of the posters here expected them to be bad. That being said, they are historically bad. Two years in a row. I think it is fair for people to be frustrated at the moment and the OH is an outlet for the frustration. I'm not sure why people are surprised by that...

 

This isn't just about the ML team. There really isn't a whole lot of good going on with some of the MiL guys that were hopefully going to be contributors either later this year, or at least next season. 

 

As it looks to my untrained eye today, this could change, but today they pretty much need to trade for, draft, or sign in some form a full roster over the next 5 years to put a competitive team on the field. So, please forgive me for being a fan and being frustrated with the current situation. 

 

Full roster?  Thats a bit harsh.   Means,  Mancini and Severino are having great years, and will almost certainly be around if they can keep it up.   Although Mancini may be trade bait in a year or so if the FO feels they O's are going to be competitive later rather than sooner, and both parties can't agree to an extnesion, as he reaches FA in 2023.  For Severino and Means, its 2024 and 2025, respectively.   Dwight Smith, while he probably won't be All-Star caliber, could very well involve into a regular contributor.

I'm also not willing to write off our young guys in the bullpen just yet, they're could be a gem or two there. 

 

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11 hours ago, Oriole1940 said:

I would consider it a moral victory if I lived long  enough to  regularly see  Orioles SPs  pitch a baseball game.  I did not say once through the lineup, on a good day, but  actually pitch a baseball game, win, lose or draw, through 7,8, or 9 innings.  To those who say it cannot be done anymore, I say it is not done anymore because the Orioles pitchers do not have the talent at this time, and they have been trained to do Quality Starts. Excuse me, but I do not call 5 or 6 innings of 3 or 4 or more runs a Quality Start.  Neither do I call twice through the lineup with several runs allowed, a Quality Start.  The bar is so low that it sickens me, and STILL they cannot measure up to it.  That to me is One good measure of just how pathetic these people are as Major League baseball pitchers.  

The number of starting pitchers who regularly pitch 7 or more innings could be counted on 1 hand, or at most 2.  Its just a different game today.  There might need to be a new metric invented "O's quality start".  This would be pitching 5 or more innings allowing 4 or less runs.  I would bet that less than 1/2 of the O's starts would qualify. 

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2 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The number of starting pitchers who regularly pitch 7 or more innings could be counted on 1 hand, or at most 2.

383 Games that a starter was in the game for 7 innings

355 Quality starts out of those 383 games

137 pitchers have pitched 7 innings or more

133 of them had Quality Starts

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15 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

The intention was a prediction thread, which the OH does all the time. I am calling bottom. 

Good call.   But if the O’s lose their next 2 games, was it really the bottom, or just a brief stop on the elevator to hell?

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22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Good call.   But if the O’s lose their next 2 games, was it really the bottom, or just a brief stop on the elevator to hell?

Thanks, I thought it was a bold call. The road to .300 starts here!

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If we trade Cashner and Bundy, we might not win 40 games. I don’t know if I want that for the O’s. Maybe that happens if we just trade Cashner. SMH. 

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Oh.  Lose 130, it's not really a number that matters.

What I will be interested in seeing is where the CBA goes.  The Orioles next competitive team will be built in that CBA and what measures it takes towards or away from the 10 team league we have been heading towards will go a long way towards deciding how long the Orioles can keep that team together.

That and spin rate, spin rate matters.

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1 minute ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Oh.  Lose 130, it's not really a number that matters.

What I will be interested in seeing is where the CBA goes.  The Orioles next competitive team will be built in that CBA and what measures it takes towards or away from the 10 team league we have been heading towards will go a long way towards deciding how long the Orioles can keep that team together.

That and spin rate, spin rate matters.

We lost Manny to the Padres. Not the Yankees or Dodgers. We chose to hand out those contracts to Davis and Oday. We also got burned on signing guys late in the offseason. Ubaldo, Gallardo, and Cobb. We had to trade away comp picks to get out of 3-5 million, one year, bad contracts. 

We made lots of bad decisions to get here. It’s not some baseball economics problem. 

This is worst case scenario for the arms on our 40 man roster happening this year. We can’t even dip into the minors and find a 4.00 ERA bullpen guy. 

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