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Gunnar Henderson signs

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1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

I'd wager no. I'd put Gunnar closer to top 10 than top 5 just because of his lack of experience. However, you could absolutely make an argument that he could be around 5 based on upside alone.

Our top 4 is almost certainly AR, Grayson, DL Hall and Mountcastle in some order. After that, it gets muddy between Hays, Diaz, Kremer, Rom, Lowther, Akin, Baumann and even Adam Hall. I still really like Hanifee too. There's a mix of probability and upside in that group that's hard for high school guy to jump unless he makes a really favorable early impression with whatever affiliate he's assigned to. If it were my list, I'd be conservative where I put him this year absent awesome reports from scouts/coaches, but I'd be well-aware that he could make a huge jump in prospect rankings at the end of next season if all goes well. 

 

I think Akin and Diaz are a tier above those others and then the Kremer, Bauman, Hall tier. But I'm no scout. 

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6 minutes ago, weams said:

Don't sleep on Mountcastle. 

As a draft pick, I essentially view Gunnar as having at least as good of an offensive upside as Mountcastle (I'm assuming his approach lends itself to more walks) while also having a much better defensive profile. That doesn't mean he'll turn into 1/2 the player that Mountcastle is, but at the time they were drafted, I think Gunnar's a much better pick. 

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2 hours ago, atomic said:

If you play well in college the money will still be there.  

Glad he will sign with the O’s but if he were my son I’d advice him to go to college. Education is best thing. 

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41 minutes ago, weams said:

How about 42 or below? Anything below counts if you pick the right one. 

The odds that you pick the right one are about 11 percent at that position in the draft.  

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Just now, weams said:

I think Akin and Diaz are a tier above those others and then the Kremer, Bauman, Hall tier. But I'm no scout. 

I think Kremer/Diaz are still likely to be #5/6 by the end of the season. I'm assuming their production matches their better profiles by the end of this year. #7/8 are probably Akin and Lowther, for me. One will probably be a fixture in the O's rotation by the end of this year and the other will probably be next year. Neither have huge upside, but both have have good enough upside and pretty damn good probabilities. Then if Hays' injury isn't terrible, he definitely belongs in the mix.

Oh, and Harvey might end up being our Andrew Miller. I had forgotten about him, but his upside blows most of the guys away. He belongs somewhere.

Long story short, we have a lot of interesting names in our top 15 right now. It's not a knock that a much lesser known high school kid isn't put above a bunch of pretty awesome dudes who have been doing wonderfully against professional competition. 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I think Kremer/Diaz are still likely to be #5/6 by the end of the season. I'm assuming their production matches their better profiles by the end of this year. #7/8 are probably Akin and Lowther, for me. One will probably be a fixture in the O's rotation by the end of this year and the other will probably be next year. Neither have huge upside, but both have have good enough upside and pretty damn good probabilities. Then if Hays' injury isn't terrible, he definitely belongs in the mix.

Oh, and Harvey might end up being our Andrew Miller. I had forgotten about him, but his upside blows most of the guys away. He belongs somewhere.

Long story short, we have a lot of interesting names in our top 15 right now. It's not a knock that a much lesser known high school kid isn't put above a bunch of pretty awesome dudes who have been doing wonderfully against professional competition. 

 

 

Hays is the injury Bug. He is no longer fresh.

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45 minutes ago, weams said:

How about 42 or below? Anything below counts if you pick the right one. 

Also pick 43 show similar results.  As Elias has missed 2 times at #1 overall I wouldn't think he has any advantage over anyone else drafting in that range.

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Just now, weams said:

Hays is the injury Bug. He is no longer fresh.

I know. Hope you're wrong, but it's frustrating at a minimum.

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3 minutes ago, atomic said:

Also pick 43 show similar results.  As Elias has missed 2 times at #1 overall I wouldn't think he has any advantage over anyone else drafting in that range.

So what you’re saying is that the Orioles should never draft again???

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7 minutes ago, AceKing said:

So what you’re saying is that the Orioles should never draft again???

Where did you get that from?

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1 minute ago, weams said:

Your opinion. A MLB career is such a miniscule dream. But then, making money off a college degree is pretty tough too. 

Also, he won't have a degree if he goes back in the draft as a junior. What was his major studies going to be? 

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15 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

How absurd is it to turn down 2+ million at age 18?  There's no guarantee that he goes to Auburn and gets drafted earlier and can command more money.  Why do you think a lot of college commits back out and end up signing?  

Newsflash, if the pro career doesn't work out...AND he's good with his money, he can go back to college at any time and not be saddled with any student loan debt.  

 

Very strong post and a thoughtful one. 

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35 minutes ago, atomic said:

How is it absurd to say that a guy who has 11 percent chance of making it to pro ball go to college instead of high school?  The smart move is to go to college and if you are good you will be drafted higher in 3 years. If you are bad you go on with your career with a degree from a good university. 

He committed to Auburn - not exactly Stanford.  The 20 year ROI from Stanford is around $800K, according to this article.  Given the very high probability of injury that completely ruins your draft status in 2-3 years, you'd have to do some serious financial gymnastics to make a plausible case that $2.3 million now (this is low-first round money, by the way) is worth less than whatever he's going to make 3 years from now + 3 years of school from a non-elite university.  If you take the ROI of Auburn it becomes even harder to justify, as the 20-year ROI there is in the 300K range.

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