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9 hours ago, wildcard said:

O's are one game behind KC.

O's have gone 6-4 in the last 10 while KC is 1-9.

This thread is proving to be neither reactionary, nor trolling,  nor jumping the gun.

The O's are 16-15 since June 28th.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we finished with more wins than Det, KC, and Miami. Look at our lineup compared to those teams. They are terrible. Miami has some nice SP though. 

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2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if we finished with more wins than Det, KC, and Miami. Look at our lineup compared to those teams. They are terrible. Miami has some nice SP though. 

I would (sans Detroit). Kansas City is a better team than us. They have about 80 runs on us in terms of run differential they have been unlucky. Same with Miami. i have a feeling we are about to get humbled by our upcoming schedule. It's pretty rough and I don't think we'll be able to squeeze by with Tom Eshelman, Jimmy Yacabonis and Aaron Brooks for much longer. This isn't suddenly a .500 team.

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12 minutes ago, LTO's said:

I would (sans Detroit). Kansas City is a better team than us. They have about 80 runs on us in terms of run differential they have been unlucky. Same with Miami. i have a feeling we are about to get humbled by our upcoming schedule. It's pretty rough and I don't think we'll be able to squeeze by with Tom Eshelman, Jimmy Yacabonis and Aaron Brooks for much longer. This isn't suddenly a .500 team.

The Yankees, Astros and Rays should be really tough.  But I think the O's can play with the Red Sox, Nats and Royals.   September gets a little easier.

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12 hours ago, wildcard said:

You could have stopped at  You're right.  

I project quite a bit.   Like to guess what is going to happen.   Its hard to do that if I wait until  whatever is happening has revealed itself.  Its one  of the fun parts of sports to try to guess what will happen.  There is a whole betting industry built on that idea.

Its one thing for posters to say they don't agree with the point I am making.  But the insults are unnecessary.

If you or anyone is going to say i jumped the gun it would be good  to wait until you know I am wrong.  That didn't happen in this case.

 

You're right!  There is a whole betting industry built on that idea.  I hope you don't partake in it too often.

It's not the points that you make, it's the unwillingness to acquiese on the whole small sample size notion.  Even though the O's have played .500 ball for a stretch here, it's still a small sample size and I don't think we can make any conclusions for the rest of the season.  They MIGHT keep this up.  There's a CHANCE that they could.  You COULD still be wrong if the Orioles play sub .500 ball in August and September.  

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2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

You're right!  There is a whole betting industry built on that idea.  I hope you don't partake in it too often.

It's not the points that you make, it's the unwillingness to acquiese on the whole small sample size notion.  Even though the O's have played .500 ball for a stretch here, it's still a small sample size and I don't think we can make any conclusions for the rest of the season.  They MIGHT keep this up.  There's a CHANCE that they could.  You COULD still be wrong if the Orioles play sub .500 ball in August and September.  

I never said the O's will play .500 ball.  On June 29th I thought the players Elias had promoted might improve the offense enough so that the O's would not get the #1 draft choice.  At that point they had a .293 winning percentage.    So far the O's have passed the Tigers.   They are now a game behind the Royals.   

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13 hours ago, wildcard said:

O's are one game behind KC.

O's have gone 6-4 in the last 10 while KC is 1-9.

This thread is proving to be neither reactionary, nor trolling,  nor jumping the gun.

The O's are 16-15 since June 28th.

It’s interesting to review the reasons you gave why the team might experience an uptick, based on some lineup trends in the few days leading up to your post.  My commentary added in brackets.

On 6/29/2019 at 11:17 PM, wildcard said:

Santander to right [playing mostly center and left, hitting very well]

Mancini to 1B [mostly in RF still, hitting well after an early July slump]

Alberto to 3B hitting against righties and lefties [mostly playing 2B, but a little 3B]

Sisco being promoted and playing against righties/Severino vs lefties.  I know its not a strict platoon by these two guys may combine to be a good tandem at catcher.   [Neither C has been hitting well lately]

Smith healthy. [.480 OPS since your post.  On the IL since 7/29.]

Nunez has been there but with the other guys hitting it could be contagious. [He’s been on a tremendous hot streak but cooled off the last few days]

Davis and Ruiz to the bench as backups along with Wilkerson. [Davis has started 20/29 games since your post; Ruiz sent to the minors 7/24]

Broxton and Martin providing defense up the middle. [Broxton cut on July 20; Martin has started 15 of 29 games since your post]

So, kind of hit and miss as to the reasons you gave why the team might start playing better.   But they’ve certainly been playing better.     Now comes a big test over the next 3-4 weeks against some good teams.

 

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10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s interesting to review the reasons you gave why the team might experience an uptick, based on some lineup trends in the few days leading up to your post.  My commentary added in brackets.

So, kind of hit and miss as to the reasons you gave why the team might start playing better.   But they’ve certainly been playing better.     Now comes a big test over the next 3-4 weeks against some good teams.

 

Really the next 8 weeks.

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19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s interesting to review the reasons you gave why the team might experience an uptick, based on some lineup trends in the few days leading up to your post.  My commentary added in brackets.

So, kind of hit and miss as to the reasons you gave why the team might start playing better.   But they’ve certainly been playing better.     Now comes a big test over the next 3-4 weeks against some good teams.

 

Quite a bit of miss, if you included this

On 6/29/2019 at 11:17 PM, wildcard said:

The pitching is still bad and the will limit the wins but Eshelman may come up at some point  and Shepard is having some success as a starter in Norfolk.   Way too early to project what might happen with those two but its something to watch.


The pitching is the reason they are playing .500 ball of late.  He hedged on Eshelman, who has a 6.51 ERA in 6 appearances ( 4 GS).

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12 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

Quite a bit of miss, if you included this


The pitching is the reason they are playing .500 ball of late.  He hedged on Eshelman, who has a 6.51 ERA in 6 appearances ( 4 GS).

I’d say it’s been both hitting and pitching.   Since the day wildcard made his post, the O’s have scored 139 runs in 29 games (4.8 per game), while allowing 164 (5.7 per game).    Note that using wildcard’s post as the cutoff eliminates the consecutive 13-0 wins that immediately preceded his post.    If those are included, then it’s 5.32 runs scored vs. 5.29 runs allowed.    

The last 7 games we’ve won, we scored at least 6 runs.   We pitched well in most games we’ve won in the last 31 games, but hit well too.   Conversely, most of our losses featured both poor hitting and poor pitching.   Not a ton of close losses in there.   

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4 hours ago, LTO's said:

I would (sans Detroit). Kansas City is a better team than us. They have about 80 runs on us in terms of run differential they have been unlucky. Same with Miami. i have a feeling we are about to get humbled by our upcoming schedule. It's pretty rough and I don't think we'll be able to squeeze by with Tom Eshelman, Jimmy Yacabonis and Aaron Brooks for much longer. This isn't suddenly a .500 team.

But they don't FEEL better to me. Oh no. 

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5 minutes ago, weams said:

But they don't FEEL better to me. Oh no. 

Their pitching is better by about .5 runs/game.   Our offense is slightly better.    Both teams suck.  

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Just now, Frobby said:

Their pitching is better by about .5 runs/game.   Our offense is slightly better.    Both teams suck.  

Park effect. On both counts. 

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10 minutes ago, weams said:

Park effect. On both counts. 

We are tied with KC in OPS+ (87), but considerably worse than them in ERA+ (83 vs. 93).     Those are park-adjusted.   

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4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We are tied with KC in OPS+ (87), but considerably worse than them in ERA+ (83 vs. 93).     Those are park-adjusted.   

This is all about my feelings. Nothing more than feelings.  Trying to forget my feelings. Of 2014. 

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1 minute ago, weams said:

This is all about my feelings. Nothing more than feelings.  Trying to forget my feelings. Of 2014. 

I am very glad I saw so little of that series.    Just like I didn’t see the Yankees-Orioles in ‘96.     It helps keep me sane.    Now the ‘97 O’s-Indians series.....Grrrrrrrr!

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