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sportsfan8703

2019 Trade Deadline

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Alright folks. We’ve recently had the Amateur draft, and the International signing day kick off.  So besides the Rule 5 draft in November, these next 28 days are about all we have to look forward to.

Reminder that there isn’t an August 31, waiver deadline this year. Just the regular old July 31st deadline. 

Players that could be on the move, Cashner, Villar, Armstrong, Givens, Bundy, Mancini, Smith Jr. 

What’s a good deadline thread without an unsubstantiated prediction?  So here goes,

Mancini to TB for RHP Shane Baz and 1B Nate Lowe

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=tb

Sure TB has Choi, but Mancini is an upgrade. TB also has a LH heavy lineup, so Mancini would help balance that out. He’s cheap, under control, and AL East tested. 

Edited by sportsfan8703
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Armstrong isn't even arbitration eligible until 2021.  Why would we be looking to move him exactly?

He certainly has some fairly decent numbers for a reliever, but there have to be far better choices available on the market.

Givens makes some sense......hopefully the huge jump in HR rate doesn't scare too many people.

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For those who are thinking that we're going to be massive sellers here at the deadline, I think you're in for a disappointment.

It's been asked here before, but who on this team would be a starter on a playoff contender?  Mancini probably, but is there a market for someone who's got average, at best, defense in a corner outfield spot?  

Another way to look at it, if you're a GM of a team looking to add pieces to the stretch drive, who on the Orioles would you absolutely HAVE to have?  Who on this team would make a difference for you?  And what would you be willing to give up to get them?

Possibly Mancini.  MAYBE Cashner.  Maybe Bundy.  Possibly Givens but he's had a borderline terrible year.

And if you're looking at the Orioles roster are they the first team you gotta call to inquire about their talent?  Are you beating down Mike Elias' door to strike a deal for Dylan "There it goes!" Bundy? 

The wildcard (no pun intended) here is that we haven't seen how Elias approaches a trade deadline as a GM.  What we saw last year was a big fat turd of a return for assets that were way better and more intriguing than anything we have now.  Out of all that dealing last year Dean Kremer looks like he could be a guy.  Diaz is in Bowie but with the way he's performed this year it's only a matter of time before someone passes him on the prospect list.

So that was DD going out in a blaze of glory in his final months as a GM.  Elias is most likely different but Elias certainly doesn't have the assets this year that DD had last year. 

When you take all of this into consideration, I think we'll be getting organizational filler and indestinguishable AAAA Hess, Yefry, Ynoa, and Rogers types in return.  Trim some payroll, get some guys that can ride out the rest of the season.  

Milligan's take:  Be happy with Rutschman, Henderson, what looks to be a nice draft class and yesterday's J2 signees and call it a day.  If we do make trades chances of us getting prospects that we'd be happy about are slim to none. 

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Armstrong was DFA'd 2 months ago. Traded for international slots this winter. ERA and FIP both over 4. 

Smith was traded for slots 4 months ago. Now he has an OPS+ under 100 and a negative WAR. 

I don't see how we can trade those guys for anything. The others, sure, they are the guys that might have value, but it's hard to say if any other team is going to value them.

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An interesting thought experiment I keep running is...................

Imagine by some miraculous marvel of modern medicine, Mark Trumbo comes back in mid July.   And then by some additional stroke of luck...............

Eh, sorry, nvm.   I can't do it this time.

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How many true sellers are there?  

The Os roster will be looked at carefully by every team who is trying to improve, just because they have the worst record and an “everything must go” mentality.

I think they will be active in the trade market, but I think it may be more Mr. Elias learning the ropes and building relationships.

I feel like there will be some rearranging of deck chairs as they try to find more guys who fit “the model”, and the trades should not be judged harshly on their surface.

There will be action.

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2 minutes ago, AceKing said:

just because they have the worst record and an “everything must go” mentality.

 

They also have "we need bodies to get us through the rest of the season, specifically pitchers" mentality, too.  They might not trade Cashner and Bundy because...well, can you imagine their spots taken by the Rogers, Hess, Yefry, Ynoa types?  It's bad enough as it is.  

 

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I think we could actually have a pretty quiet trade deadline, and justifiably so. The big piece we do have, Mancini, you don't need to be in any rush to trade him if the offer isn't there. We have so little AAA pitching depth that it's almost impossible to trade Cash or Bundy. 

I do think we can still move Givens as he's been doing better of late and people need relievers. 

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Yeah I think if anyone goes it will be Cashner or Givens.    And I don't expect to be thrilled with the return.

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8 minutes ago, AceKing said:

How many true sellers are there?  

The Os roster will be looked at carefully by every team who is trying to improve, just because they have the worst record and an “everything must go” mentality.

I think they will be active in the trade market, but I think it may be more Mr. Elias learning the ropes and building relationships.

I feel like there will be some rearranging of deck chairs as they try to find more guys who fit “the model”, and the trades should not be judged harshly on their surface.

There will be action.

How many true buyers are there?

We aren't trading Mancini unless Elias really likes the return.

Somebody might want Givens to eat some bullpen innings, but probably won't give up a legit prospect

Villar could be a nice salary dump trade, no real return expected

Cashner will get moved, because it makes no sense not to trade him. We have no leverage in the deal, return will be minimal

Bundy will stay, because he is an affordable starter for next season and his trade value is low.

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22 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

They also have "we need bodies to get us through the rest of the season, specifically pitchers" mentality, too.  They might not trade Cashner and Bundy because...well, can you imagine their spots taken by the Rogers, Hess, Yefry, Ynoa types?  It's bad enough as it is.  

 

I think Eshelman and Wojciechowski prove that Elias knows how to get bodies cheap.

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3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think Eshelman and Wojciechowski prove that Elias knows how to get bodies cheap.

Captain Sample Size!  Let's wait and see if Esh and Wojo can get through 5 or 6 innings consistently.

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I hate to admit it but I am of the mindset of keep shuffle the deck chairs and be historically bad for another 18 months and win the Kumar Rocker Sweepstakes after the 2020 season. That would match the Astros for three consecutive 1-1 selections. Which as many of you pointed out, they went 1 for 3 with those selections (yes, I know they got Bregman as compensation for Aiken. But they still chose Aiken).

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