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Greg Pappas

Traditional/Analytical: We're Not All Speaking the Same Language

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20 minutes ago, Chavez Ravine said:

I don't care much for the in game presentation of Statcast data. Do I really need the exit velocity to tell me that ball was tattooed? But I can see how other folks might like it.  I think those data are far more useful as a way to describe player skill sets or as data to maybe better predict things like which free agent's skills are less likely to fall off a cliff in the next three years.

The point of exit velocity is that it gives you an indication of the quality of contact a player makes so if you see a player with excellent exit velocity averages but very marginal numbers, there's a significant chance that his numbers will trend up.

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This isn't going to be near as in depth as it should be but these are the things I look at to see indications of a player's real performance and indicators of future success.

Hitters:

BB%- Ideally you want to see a guy around 10% but it's not set in stone as there are some rare players who can succeed at very low BB rates like Baez and Jones

K%- Ideally you want to see 20% or less, but like BB% it's not 100% necessary as guys like Baez and Gallo succed despite them.

wRC+- a real good way to measure hitters against the rest of the field where 100 is your average MLB hitter and a 120 means 20% better than the average. Park is factored in.

wOBA+- Because OPS weights SLG far too heavily wOBA gives us a better indication of performance.

Quality of Contact- featuring Soft%, Med%,Hard% tracking these numbers from year to year is a good way to see if the player has actually changed something

BABIP- Very misunderstood. While roughly .300 is the average babip, it varies greatly depending on quality of contact. Guys who hit laser beams like Freeman can sustain a .350 while guys who hit a huge amount of flyballs like Khris Davis often hold babip far below the .300.

HR/FB%- Something to keep an eye on as sometimes a guy like Austin Riley will burst on the scene and have something crazy like a 35% HR/FB which just isn't sustainable by anyone.

Pitchers:

FIP: Shows a pitcher's performance for the things that they can control. Eliminates defense, irregular LOB%, irregular babip etc. Does not factor in those who have the skill to induce weak contact which is its biggest flaw.

SIERA: Very similar to FIP but it takes quality of contact into its calculation so I like it more

K%: Usually a better indicator of future success though not entirely necessary

K/BB%: A must to be successful. Most elite pitches are at least 3:1

 

 

I'm not going to talk much about them, but defensive measurements need very large sample sizes to normalize. Sometimes as much as a couple years so don't take any few months or half season too seriously.

 

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3 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

defensive WAR -8.2 

If anyone ever has a -8.2 dWAR in a single season, take their glove from them, burn it, and then DH them until the end of their career.

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1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

You're not old for a baseball fan. The median age of the MLB tv viewing audience is 55. You're still a pup. 

Aw shucks... you have me blushing. :)

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34 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

This isn't going to be near as in depth as it should be but these are the things I look at to see indications of a player's real performance and indicators of future success.

Hitters:

BB%- Ideally you want to see a guy around 10% but it's not set in stone as there are some rare players who can succeed at very low BB rates like Baez and Jones

K%- Ideally you want to see 20% or less, but like BB% it's not 100% necessary as guys like Baez and Gallo succed despite them.

wRC+- a real good way to measure hitters against the rest of the field where 100 is your average MLB hitter and a 120 means 20% better than the average. Park is factored in.

wOBA+- Because OPS weights SLG far too heavily wOBA gives us a better indication of performance.

Quality of Contact- featuring Soft%, Med%,Hard% tracking these numbers from year to year is a good way to see if the player has actually changed something

BABIP- Very misunderstood. While roughly .300 is the average babip, it varies greatly depending on quality of contact. Guys who hit laser beams like Freeman can sustain a .350 while guys who hit a huge amount of flyballs like Khris Davis often hold babip far below the .300.

HR/FB%- Something to keep an eye on as sometimes a guy like Austin Riley will burst on the scene and have something crazy like a 35% HR/FB which just isn't sustainable by anyone.

Pitchers:

FIP: Shows a pitcher's performance for the things that they can control. Eliminates defense, irregular LOB%, irregular babip etc. Does not factor in those who have the skill to induce weak contact which is its biggest flaw.

SIERA: Very similar to FIP but it takes quality of contact into its calculation so I like it more

K%: Usually a better indicator of future success though not entirely necessary

K/BB%: A must to be successful. Most elite pitches are at least 3:1

 

 

I'm not going to talk much about them, but defensive measurements need very large sample sizes to normalize. Sometimes as much as a couple years so don't take any few months or half season too seriously.

 

Thank you very much for this post.  

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