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DocJJ

Would you trade Means?

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3 hours ago, theocean said:

I really disagree with this. Clubhouse culture, morale, all the behind-the-scenes stuff definitely matters to a winning ballclub, especially over a 162 game season. You can have all the talent in the world - but it takes discipline, dedication, preparation, etc to make the most of that talent and succeed at the top level. I think Hyde's biggest job this year is to create the organizational culture he believes will be successful and have it ready so that future players come into a situation where they can succeed.

John Means has pitched 86 pro innings. He's started 14 games. He's been great - but the numbers suggest he isn't this good. He was also out with a shoulder strain earlier in the year. I don't think any smart Front Office is going to look at that and fall over themselves to trade for John Means. The value the O's would get for him at this point would not exceed his possible future value. If he's pitching great next year - different story.

And for the Astros - Tucker or Whitley gets them Stroman or Bumgarner. John Means isn't bringing that back at this point.

...but none of these players will be part of that winning ball club by the time they turn things around. That was my main point. And I'm not trying to sell Means as something that he isn't. I'm just saying that if someone values him more than Elias thinks he's actually worth then he should strongly consider trading him. You and I have no idea how other teams/front offices value him. That's for Elias to sort out. 

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The issue with Means, as with each of these guys who perform well at the very beginning of their major league career, is that no one is going to compensate the Os appropriate for what now appears to be considerable upside.  Someone may offer a top 10 prospect or two, and that may represent a heckuva lot more value than what Means appeared to be worth this offseason and wit in hindsight we might regret turning it down ….  but the upside is considerable and it is best that we just keep him and try to keep that upside for ourselves.  If Means became Rodrigo Lopez and had a couple of 2 WAR seasons, that would be incredible.  If Means pitches more like a 2/3, that would be even better.  Why cash in that kind of upside for prospects now?  Let it roll.

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3 hours ago, jerios55 said:

First off, Boyd is arbitration eligible this year, which would be more equivalent to the 2021 season for Means and part of why I listed that as a better time to trade him.  As a result he has 500+ IP for teams to evaluate at a Major League level.  I don't see this as a similar situation.

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=15440&position=P

Last years team most would agree should have been better.  Maybe you don't think morale should matter because they are grown men, but I call BS.  Most are just as human as the rest of us, they are just more gifted athletically.  There is definitively losers mentalities and that will impact performance and long term development.  If no one on this team is here, maybe you're right it doesn't matter. 

But I don't believe the return this year will be worth it for all the reasons, that is just an influencing factor.

edit: I wrote out BS and thought it would censor.  My bad...

I don' t think it's up to us to determine John Mean's value. It's up to Elias. The point I was making is that he has to do what's best for this team long term not what's best for the the today, tomorrow or even next year. We are in a rebuild and the players get paid whether we win or lose. And if you're clinging to the thought that our team should have been better last year it makes me think you aren't fully buying into the need for us to tear it down and start over. And that would be a mistake. 

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3 hours ago, Philip said:

Sisco is not untouchable. No one is untouchable. I doubt anyone will even ask about him, but no one is untouchable, especially on THIS team.

I was basing it on his age. He's only 24 so it's realistic to think that he could "possible" be part of the rebuild. Everyone else is either too old or just not good enough. There's also potential to play him at 1B or DH so I think it's possible he can coexist with Rutchsman. 

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Myth:  John Means wont be here for the next competitive team.

Reason:  At 26 years old Means has 5 years of team control.  That gives the Orioles until 2024 to compete.

John Means would be at a maximum age 31.

The Orioles could compete by 2022.

The Analogy:  The 2015 and 2016 Brewers, Chase Anderson.

In 2015, Chase Anderson was a mediocre 25 year old SP for the Arizona Diamondbacks compiling a 4.15 ERA over two years.  Anderson was a mid level talent, 9th round pick.

The 2016 Brewers were a team in the midst of a rebuild.  That rebuild didnt have much in the way of assets.  Johnathon LuCroy was the star and netted some prospects when traded to Tex, including Lewis Brinson who was the center piece of the Yelich trade (perhaps the Orioles dont have this level of commodity, but I am also giving them 3 years to turn it around instead of the brewers 2 year turnaround, with top draft picks that the brewers did not have).  Other notables were Braun, Villar, Hill...not much.

Anderson meanwhile has had decent results (sometimes as hood as means in short stints) and is, at 31 years old an important part of a competitive team.

Conclusion.  Means could absolutely be a part of a future competitive team.  Trading him because you think he won't is not a legitimate reason to make the trade.  Trading him for a good set of prospects could make some sense but as Philip pointed out I just dont think you will get that offer.  If you do, if someone does something stupid, you do it. (The Brewers are built on that).

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9 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I was basing it on his age. He's only 24 so it's realistic to think that he could "possible" be part of the rebuild. Everyone else is either too old or just not good enough. There's also potential to play him at 1B or DH so I think it's possible he can coexist with Rutchsman. 

Sisco doesn't seem to be popular on OH, but I've always wanted to see him get a fair shot. If Sisco's bat can play the Orioles will find a place for him on the roster. Also it would be cool to have a really good backup catcher to split time with Rutschman. 

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17 hours ago, DocJJ said:

On the one hand, we are in full rebuild mode- so no one should be considered untouchable.    

On the other hand, he's only 26, coming off an All-Star, ROY level campaign, is under team control for a while, and has been our best home-grown Starting pitcher... so I'd be most reluctant to part with him.   But what if someone made us a "WOW" offer?

 

Yes, if some team offered up a package that only over-exuberant Oriole fans on the internet would dream up then I'd pull the trigger.

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38 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I don' t think it's up to us to determine John Mean's value. It's up to Elias. The point I was making is that he has to do what's best for this team long term not what's best for the the today, tomorrow or even next year. We are in a rebuild and the players get paid whether we win or lose. And if you're clinging to the thought that our team should have been better last year it makes me think you aren't fully buying into the need for us to tear it down and start over. And that would be a mistake. 

Haha, talking about lasts years team was specifically in response to you saying grown men don't have emotions that are impacted by blowout loses that will impact on field results and/or development.

This team needed exactly what it's getting on every level.  Last years team was dead and buried long before this point a year ago.  I will argue they had more talent, but talent doesn't mean much with poor mental play and it showed, that's literally my point.  To think you can trade any one that shows an ounce of talent and it not impact the team going forward, I think you're missing a big factor for a team sport.  At some point throwing a team of waiver wire pickups, Rule V guys and AAAA fodder isn't going to cut it.  They aren't going to simply have 25 guys to call up the same day that don't suck. 

This year and next year aren't really about W/L.  So Cashner, Villar, Bundy, Mancini make some sense because of that.  With 5.5 years on control Means would require a lot in a trade.  We all hope it will continue, but most put a qualifier knowing his lack of prospect status and minimal workload to this point.  Would I trade a huge haul for that guy?  I don't think I would.  So I have a hard time believing the trade will make the right sense this year.  Maybe it isn't my job to put a value on Means.  I'm here to have a conversation about it.  I don't think Elias is going to come here and tell us his thoughts on the matter.  So you get my unprofessional, weakly research, probably poorly concocted and biased reasoning. 

 

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4 hours ago, Philip said:

Means Just doesn’t have enough of a track record to be worth anything to anybody except us at this point in time.  I think you could make a strong argument for trading him next season, because we have so many other, better pitchers on the way. And if he does well the rest of the season and the first part of next then he might bring back a good return. But until and unless, it’s just silly to even consider the possibility

To me, they’re better only once they prove they’re better at the major league level.    Certainly, we’ve had and have many pitchers who had a better MiL track record than John Means.     We’ve also seen a lot of them accomplish nothing at the major league level.  We’ve seen very few pitchers have a first half-season as good as Means’.    I view him as a different, better pitcher than the John Means who pitched for our minor league clubs.   While I doubt he continues his current level of success, the fact is his fastball has ticked up a notch and he has a vastly better changeup than he previously had.    We could be looking at a guy who can be a solid major league starter for years to come.   I hope so, anyway.    We’ll see if any of our MiL pitchers become that.   

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2 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Sisco doesn't seem to be popular on OH, but I've always wanted to see him get a fair shot. If Sisco's bat can play the Orioles will find a place for him on the roster. Also it would be cool to have a really good backup catcher to split time with Rutschman. 

I was certainly anti-Sisco, but I also was happy to give him a chance and he’s improving. I’m more positive now. 

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5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

To me, they’re better only once they prove they’re better at the major league level.    Certainly, we’ve had and have many pitchers who had a better MiL track record than John Means.     We’ve also seen a lot of them accomplish nothing at the major league level.  We’ve seen very few pitchers have a first half-season as good as Means’.    I view him as a different, better pitcher than the John Means who pitched for our minor league clubs.   While I doubt he continues his current level of success, the fact is his fastball has ticked up a notch and he has a vastly better changeup than he previously had.    We could be looking at a guy who can be a solid major league starter for years to come.   I hope so, anyway.    We’ll see if any of our MiL pitchers become that.   

I can’t list all the solid prospects in the minors who could play next year, but all of them have more upside than Means. Whether they reach it is a valid question , but next year we’ll have Bundy and four other spots. If 3-4 of our ready guys break camp with the team it makes Means a trade piece. If none of them do and we have to continue with the Ynoa/Hess/Waiver guy system then he’d still be a valid trade piece. We’ll see.

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3 hours ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

Nobody does the colors and fonts like OFFNY....... nobody.

 

o

They don't.

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He is the type of guy we should be trading for. Why in the world would we trade him? If we are still rebuilding in 2022, maybe consider trading him then.

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9 hours ago, Cy Bundy said:

26 year old starters with 86 innings, a 91.9mph average heater, & approximately a 36% ground ball rate are the kinda fellas we need to move our young assets for. 

we should be trading our *old* assets for potentially overlooked value guys in other organizations who can pitch to a sub 3 ERA in the AL East. 

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13 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

He is the type of guy we should be trading for. Why in the world would we trade him? If we are still rebuilding in 2022, maybe consider trading him then.

Yeah ... I don’t see the point in trading him. Isn’t he after all the type of pitcher we’ve been trying to develop for years.

 

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