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Orioles trade Cashner to Red Sox

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12 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Wow ...Cashner had a 5.00+ ERA last year and a 3.83 this year. It doesn't take a genius to figure why he was trade this you and no one wanted him on a waiver claim last.

 

I read that Cashner credits his better year to the advanced metric information pushed by the Elias regime.

I also read that the Red Sox liked both prospects the O's picked up.  Prado had approximately as many K's as BB's and has played all 3 outfield positions with an intriguing mix of power and speed. 

Noelberth Romero has a really cool first name has some tools too.  Listed as a utility infielder, word is his arm strength should be enough to have him play up the middle.  Sounds like his defensive skills are ahead of his offensive skills though he has shown a little pop but not as much as Prado.

Both need to add some weight to their 6' frames.  Prado tips the scales at 160 while Romero is 145. 

Red Sox GM Eddie Romero: "I know these guys are far off, but it hurt. When they were coming up with these names, they weren’t guys that we were hoping they’d asked for..."       

I like the move of rolling the dice on upside youth rather than middling older prospects who don't present much upside (ala the Homer Bailey trade)

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5 minutes ago, Punchandjudy said:

I read that Cashner credits his better year to the advanced metric information pushed by the Elias regime.

I also read that the Red Sox liked both prospects the O's picked up.  Prado had approximately as many K's as BB's and has played all 3 outfield positions with an intriguing mix of power and speed. 

Noelberth Romero has a really cool first name has some tools too.  Listed as a utility infielder, word is his arm strength should be enough to have him play up the middle.  Sounds like his defensive skills are ahead of his offensive skills though he has shown a little pop but not as much as Prado.

Both need to add some weight to their 6' frames.  Prado tips the scales at 160 while Romero is 145. 

Red Sox GM Eddie Romero: "I know these guys are far off, but it hurt. When they were coming up with these names, they weren’t guys that we were hoping they’d asked for..."       

I like the move of rolling the dice on upside youth rather than middling older prospects who don't present much upside (ala the Homer Bailey trade)

"We thought they'd be the Orioles and just ask for our spare part AA guys like usual... dang."

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51 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.royalsreview.com/platform/amp/2019/7/14/20693845/royals-trade-homer-bailey-to-oakland

So, would you rather have had this guy than the two DSL players?   Cashner is a bit better than Bailey, so I’d say we could have gotten Merrell or someone a little better for him.    

ROFL.  You guys are living in a world that doesn't have any basis on reality at all.  Homer Bailey has a total of -1.5 WAR the last 3 years and Cashner has 7.9 WAR during the same period of time. This year Homer Bailey has 0.8 WAR and Cashner has 2.6 WAR. I mean are you going to compare Mike Wright to Justin Verlander next.  Totally ridiculous.  I mean throwing out ridiculous comparison's to try and give credence to anything bad move Elias does is really sad. 

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7 minutes ago, atomic said:

ROFL.  You guys are living in a world that doesn't have any basis on reality at all.  Homer Bailey has a total of -1.5 WAR the last 3 years and Cashner has 7.9 WAR during the same period of time. This year Homer Bailey has 0.8 WAR and Cashner has 2.6 WAR. I mean are you going to compare Mike Wright to Justin Verlander next.  Totally ridiculous.  I mean throwing out ridiculous comparison's to try and give credence to anything bad move Elias does is really sad. 

You're way off the mark here with your Verlander / Wright analogy. Both Bailey and Cashner are both bad pitchers who have gotten extremely lucky this year. Teams are looking at advanced metrics like xFIP, Sierra, and Swinging Strike Rate and all of those indicate both are and have been very bad pitchers. I'd be amazed if Cashner keeps his era under 5.00 for the second half of the year. He doesn't miss enough bats to be a successful MLB pitcher for any sustained length of time. His 2017 was a complete fluke and teams know that. 

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.royalsreview.com/platform/amp/2019/7/14/20693845/royals-trade-homer-bailey-to-oakland

So, would you rather have had this guy than the two DSL players?   Cashner is a bit better than Bailey, so I’d say we could have gotten Merrell or someone a little better for him.    

I would be talking out of the wrong end if I commented on the future status of the two players coming back in this deal, so I'm ok with that part of the deal. The only thing I guess I'm disappointed in is the amount of money Baltimore still has to pay. 

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26 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

You're way off the mark here with your Verlander / Wright analogy. Both Bailey and Cashner are both bad pitchers who have gotten extremely lucky this year. Teams are looking at advanced metrics like xFIP, Sierra, and Swinging Strike Rate and all of those indicate both are and have been very bad pitchers. I'd be amazed if Cashner keeps his era under 5.00 for the second half of the year. He doesn't miss enough bats to be a successful MLB pitcher for any sustained length of time. His 2017 was a complete fluke and teams know that. 

Cashner has been lucky for three years and Bailey has been unlucky for 3 years has he?  ROFL.  You guys are really reaching for things.  This might be the worst comparison of players I have ever seen.  You guys just don't know anything about baseball . 

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So I just scrolled through 26 pages and didn't see a single video of either of these kids nor anyone who has watched them play speak to their ability or inability.  Only thing I saw was signing bonuses.  Red Sox, like the Yankees are huge in the international scene and are limited by the signing limit restriction.  I would venture to say most kids want to play for the Red Sox or Yankees if you had to take a poll.  These kids probably have several friends who play in the organizations of those teams.  These guys have been in contact with the Red Sox since probably 14.  I find only the top 20 or so prospects sign for me than what these kids did.  To me, it is quite a valid assumption that the Red Sox could have gotten these guys at a discount due to who they are and their reputation in the international community.  Also, as was pointed out, many talented MLB all stars have signed for similar bonuses. I'm with all the other folks that this is a lottery, I trust the evaluators until they give me reason not to, and I think it is better than getting a few guys who will be at best AAAA/AAA starters and emergency fill-in at big league level.  Hope to see them at minors Spring Training next year.

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.royalsreview.com/platform/amp/2019/7/14/20693845/royals-trade-homer-bailey-to-oakland

So, would you rather have had this guy than the two DSL players?   Cashner is a bit better than Bailey, so I’d say we could have gotten Merrell or someone a little better for him.    

No, I think we already lead all organizations in young SS's with no power.  

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19 minutes ago, atomic said:

Cashner has been lucky for three years and Bailey has been unlucky for 3 years has he?  ROFL.  You guys are really reaching for things.  This might be the worst comparison of players I have ever seen.  You guys just don't know anything about baseball . 

Cashner's might be a little better due to his consistency (he's pitched more innings), but otherwise I don't see how you can possibly say these two pitchers are really that much different (when healthy). 

Cashner

2019 - 4.90 x FIP / 8.7% SwStrk

2018 - 5.19 xFIP / 6.8% SwStrk

2017 - 5.30 xFIP / 6.1% SwStrk

 

Bailey

2019 - 4.62 xFIP / 10.6% SwStrk

2018 - 4.65 xFIP / 8.9% SwStrk

2017 - 4.98 xFIP / 9.3% SwStk

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35 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I would be talking out of the wrong end if I commented on the future status of the two players coming back in this deal, so I'm ok with that part of the deal. The only thing I guess I'm disappointed in is the amount of money Baltimore still has to pay. 

This is exactly how I feel about the trade...but if kicking in money allowed us to get two (as opposed to one) prospect back I'm completely fine with it. It's pretty clear Elias puts quite a bit of value in the international market and he appears to be trying to fix the fact that we've largely ignored the international pipeline for years. 

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17 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

This is exactly how I feel about the trade...but if kicking in money allowed us to get two (as opposed to one) prospect back I'm completely fine with it. It's pretty clear Elias puts quite a bit of value in the international market and he appears to be trying to fix the fact that we've largely ignored the international pipeline for years. 

I'm in agreement with this. Cashner's having a good year and at least one publication (Fangraphs maybe?) made the case that he would be a better bullpen arm if used that way. In other words, I think we could have done a pure salary dump if we wanted, but instead we kicked in some $$. Why?

My best guess is because we think were getting some real talent back. At 17, real talent can blow up in a good way or a bad way, so it's clearly a move with risk, but our evaluators have had eyes on these kids, so I think it's fair to say that we probably got a couple of guys that we actually liked coming back.

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2 hours ago, atomic said:

ROFL.  You guys are living in a world that doesn't have any basis on reality at all.  Homer Bailey has a total of -1.5 WAR the last 3 years and Cashner has 7.9 WAR during the same period of time. This year Homer Bailey has 0.8 WAR and Cashner has 2.6 WAR. I mean are you going to compare Mike Wright to Justin Verlander next.  Totally ridiculous.  I mean throwing out ridiculous comparison's to try and give credence to anything bad move Elias does is really sad. 

You always have an agenda.    I said Cashner was better than Bailey.    I see the return on Bailey as a floor on what we might have gotten for Cashner, that’s all.    I’m not trying to give credence to anything.     I already said I don’t know if it was a good move or not.

As other trades involving starting pitchers occur between now and 7/31, I think it will be more possible to frame the kind of return we might have gotten for Cashner.    Right now, the Bailey deal is the floor.    

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1 hour ago, atomic said:

Cashner has been lucky for three years and Bailey has been unlucky for 3 years has he?  ROFL.  You guys are really reaching for things.  This might be the worst comparison of players I have ever seen.  You guys just don't know anything about baseball . 

We know enough about baseball to understand Elias's strategy and the fact that no one fires a GM 8 months into the job...

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1 hour ago, atomic said:

Cashner has been lucky for three years and Bailey has been unlucky for 3 years has he?  ROFL.  You guys are really reaching for things.  This might be the worst comparison of players I have ever seen.  You guys just don't know anything about baseball . 

Among those who post here, there's a wide range of knowledge and sophistication about the Orioles past and present, players in the farm system, other ML and MiL players, the business of the Orioles and MLB, and baseball generally. I enjoy reading, and on occasion participating in, spirited debates on this board about the Orioles' players, managers, front office and owners, and about how they perform and the decisions they make.

I think it's great that everyone is welcome to take part in those debates, and to do so pretty much however they want, even though that sometimes causes me do some high-speed scrolling through a topic. And sometimes the arguments make it clear to me that the poster has, or doesn't have, considerable knowledge and sophistication about the topic.  

In my opinion, and I'm confident that I'm not alone, comments like the one I've bolded have no place on this board. And they are unlikely to convince anyone of the merit of the poster's argument, but instead are likely to create or confirm negative opinions of the poster and the quality of his arguments.

.

 

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