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Orioles trade Cashner to Red Sox

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1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Cashner's might be a little better due to his consistency (he's pitched more innings), but otherwise I don't see how you can possibly say these two pitchers are really that much different (when healthy). 

Cashner

2019 - 4.90 x FIP / 8.7% SwStrk

2018 - 5.19 xFIP / 6.8% SwStrk

2017 - 5.30 xFIP / 6.1% SwStrk

 

Bailey

2019 - 4.62 xFIP / 10.6% SwStrk

2018 - 4.65 xFIP / 8.9% SwStrk

2017 - 4.98 xFIP / 9.3% SwStk

Yeah FIP is meaningless and this proves it.

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8 minutes ago, atomic said:

Yeah FIP is meaningless and this proves it.

Do you even know what FIP is?  If it's meaningless why or how does it predict future ERA more accurately than actual ERA?

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1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Do you even know what FIP is?  If it's meaningless why or how does it predict future ERA more accurately than actual ERA?

He know what it is, it just doesn't fit his argument. I'm actually beginning to wonder of @atomic  is secretly Brady Anderson defending the honor of the man he lobbied to sign ;)

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3 minutes ago, jsbearr said:

It will be fun to revisit this thread when Cashner signs a free agent minor league deal this offseason.

Fixed that for ya ;)

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5 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Fixed that for ya ;)

He looks more like a 1/10 w/option or a 2/18 player.  A weak pitching team may be desperate enough to offer that.

A team like Boston is looking at him as a short term fifth starter and then pushing him back in the bullpen.  That is the kind of player whose option will not get picked up and indicates a pitcher that is not well viewed in baseball (which has been the case for several years now once his high velocity profile went away).  Some team in dire need of SP (like the Orioles were when they signed him) will be willing to hand out a deal in the 8-10 million range, but only on a short term deal.

Most teams will not see him as a viable starter better than their 5th or 6th options.

Sometimes the numbers are helpful, sometimes they make you think Gerardo Parra will be a good pickup. That is why it is good to look at the context of the numbers.

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3 hours ago, atomic said:

ROFL.  You guys are living in a world that doesn't have any basis on reality at all.  Homer Bailey has a total of -1.5 WAR the last 3 years and Cashner has 7.9 WAR during the same period of time. This year Homer Bailey has 0.8 WAR and Cashner has 2.6 WAR. I mean are you going to compare Mike Wright to Justin Verlander next.  Totally ridiculous.  I mean throwing out ridiculous comparison's to try and give credence to anything bad move Elias does is really sad. 

To be clear you're quoting baseball-reference's rWAR, which gives most of the credit for BABIP and fielding outcomes and HR/FB to the pitcher.  You'd get different results if you used a different metric with different assumptions.  

For example, using Fangraphs' version of WAR Bailey has been +2 wins over the past 2.5 years and 287 innings.  Cashner is at 4.8 over his past 416 innings.  So per 162 innings Bailey is at +1.1, Cashner is at +1.9.  The difference is not nearly as pronounced if you slightly change how you give credit for things that aren't completely in control of the pitcher.

The real difference is probably somewhere in the middle, with Bailey maybe half a win a season, and Cashner around two.  Cashner is a better pitcher, but not by the exaggerated amount you're arguing.

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51 minutes ago, jsbearr said:

He looks more like a 1/10 w/option or a 2/18 player.  A weak pitching team may be desperate enough to offer that.

So he will be back with the Orioles? Got it.

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6 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

So he will be back with the Orioles? Got it.

Orioles won't spend for that.

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I would have waited this out until the end of July or maybe even end of August.  Never know who might get hurt between now and then.  The guys we got are hardly "can't miss" and hard to believe we wanted them so bad that we couldn't risk losing them to another team or whatever.  The biggest thing that bugs me is Cashner made it very clear he didn't want to be traded and we did anyway for next to nothing in return.  That's not a great look, and future free agents could use that against us.  

However, this is hardly a major blunder by Elias, in my opinion.  It was a no-brainer to try to move a rental like Cashner, and if this is the best he thinks he could get, so be it.  Not a great fan of the return, but castigating Elias for this trade is not going to be my hill to die on.

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3 minutes ago, FanSince88 said:

I would have waited this out until the end of July or maybe even end of August.  Never know who might get hurt between now and then.  The guys we got are hardly "can't miss" and hard to believe we wanted them so bad that we couldn't risk losing them to another team or whatever.  The biggest thing that bugs me is Cashner made it very clear he didn't want to be traded and we did anyway for next to nothing in return.  That's not a great look, and future free agents could use that against us.  

However, this is hardly a major blunder by Elias, in my opinion.  It was a no-brainer to try to move a rental like Cashner, and if this is the best he thinks he could get, so be it.  Not a great fan of the return, but castigating Elias for this trade is not going to be my hill to die on.

New rule this year:  no waiver trades in August.   July 31 4:00 pm EDT is a hard trade deadline.

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Just now, SteveA said:

New rule this year:  no waiver trades in August.   July 31 4:00 pm EDT is a hard trade deadline.

Oh, I didn't know that, thanks for the correction.  Then this move from Elias make a lot more sense.  Still would have waited a couple weeks to see who gets hurt, but that's a bit of a nitpick I suppose.  

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14 hours ago, FanSince88 said:

Oh, I didn't know that, thanks for the correction.  Then this move from Elias make a lot more sense.  Still would have waited a couple weeks to see who gets hurt, but that's a bit of a nitpick I suppose.  

Cashner could have been the one to get hurt or simple throw a bad game.  Means hit a fairly hot swinging Rays team.  Means recent stat line for Cashner wouldn't have helped things.  Although no one will ever know that now.

I don't disagree with your idea, but if the return in Elias eye was acceptable, then waiting doesn't always matter.  If the team put out feelers in the offseason and again now, they probably have a good idea of the number of suitors.  We don't so I'm not gonna worry about a few starts.

 

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