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21 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Do you even know what FIP is?  If it's meaningless why or how does it predict future ERA more accurately than actual ERA?

Well you just said ERA is meaningless.  So what difference does it make if FIP predicts future ERA?  

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14 minutes ago, atomic said:

Well you just said ERA is meaningless.  So what difference does it make if FIP predicts future ERA?  

None of it is meaningless.

A quick run down.

ERA expresses that a pitcher is responsible for all runs except those caused in relationship to errors.

FIP expresses that a pitcher is responsible for Ks, BBs, and batted balls that go over the fence. It tries to isolate the pitcher from good or bad fielding which could make him look better or worse than he actually is.

xFIP takes FIP, but suggests there is randomness to home runs and instead assigns league average values for that by considering the pitcher's fly ball rate.

SIERA says that relationships between strikeouts and balls to runs are not linear. It uses more complicated math to develop that association.  It also treats batted balls as far more complicated with a focus on ground balls.

DRA thinks all of that is nice, but that run attribution is very complex. It uses mixed modeling to determine that. It breaks down pitcher performance pitch by pitch. It looks at the field, the weather, the specific batter, the catcher, the umpire. It puts these all together and develops a larger picture.

In general, all of the metrics will lead you to a similar place unless over a career a pitch pitches in front of an incredible defense (see: Jim Palmer) or if they reside in an extreme offensive environment.

If I remember correctly, ERA takes about 100 IP to have a decent sample. FIP  is also around 100.  xFIP is around 80. SIERA is around 60. DRA is around 30. You have to basically quadruple those samples if you want something fairly definitive, but those marks give you a reasonable idea who the pitcher is.

The key thing to remember is that ERA gives way too much credit to the pitcher for batted balls. FIP gives way too much credit to the defense for batted balls. xFIP does a shade better. SIERA tries to parse out major drivers of pitching performance. DRA tries to solve the whole thing.

 

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12 minutes ago, jsbearr said:

In general, all of the metrics will lead you to a similar place unless over a career a pitch pitches in front of an incredible defense (see: Jim Palmer) or if they reside in an extreme offensive environment.

So, Jim Palmer wasn't all that good?  Is this Jake Arrieta?

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1 minute ago, NCRaven said:

So, Jim Palmer wasn't all that good?  Is this Jake Arrieta?

Was it ever determined that it was Arrieta that made that comment?

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Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Was it ever determined that it was Arrieta that made that comment?

My assumption but readily admit it could have been one of the other young (at that time) pitchers.  Just seemed very much like a Jake thing to say.

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1 minute ago, NCRaven said:

So, Jim Palmer wasn't all that good?  Is this Jake Arrieta?

Jim Palmer was very good and looked great because of a superior defense and some help from Memorial Stadium.  In other words, he is a HOF pitcher who looked like a very special HoF pitcher.

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3 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

My assumption but readily admit it could have been one of the other young (at that time) pitchers.  Just seemed very much like a Jake thing to say.

For some reason I always pinned that one on Matusz.  Certainly could have been Jake.

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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

For some reason I always pinned that one on Matusz.  Certainly could have been Jake.

They're certainly the two most likely.  Doesn't sound like Tillman or Bergesen.

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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

For some reason I always pinned that one on Matusz.  Certainly could have been Jake.

It could have been anyone. Palmer's criticisms in the past have been seen within the organization as being not constructive and inflammatory.  Maybe this is inaccurate, but it has been expressed to me that in the rare instances that he does talk to a pitcher that his advice is never something that can actually be applied.  That it is stuck in what worked in a previous era.  So, all that happens is that it is unhelpful and encourages fans to make bad situations worse.

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Just now, jsbearr said:

It could have been anyone. Palmer's criticisms in the past have been seen within the organization as being not constructive and inflammatory.  Maybe this is inaccurate, but it has been expressed to me that in the rare instances that he does talk to a pitcher that his advice is never something that can actually be applied.  That it is stuck in what worked in a previous era.  So, all that happens is that it is unhelpful and encourages fans to make bad situations worse.

I think that is the case for the vast majority of former players. 

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25 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Was it ever determined that it was Arrieta that made that comment?

Don't know, but it was reported to be.  I guess it could have been Guthrie but Roy could speak to that. 

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27 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

For some reason I always pinned that one on Matusz.  Certainly could have been Jake.

I believe it was Matusz. That's my memory at least. 

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1 hour ago, atomic said:

Well you just said ERA is meaningless.  So what difference does it make if FIP predicts future ERA?  

No I didn't, and FIP tracks the things that are in a pitcher's control, not the aspect of ERA that aren't and tend to vary.  FIP tells you how often a pitcher gives up walks and homers, and how often you strike out opponents.  Those are the most important things to know about a pitcher.

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1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

So, Jim Palmer wasn't all that good?  Is this Jake Arrieta?

Palmer was very good, very durable, but his walk, strikeout, and homer rates were right around league averages.  And he played most of his career in front of epic defenses in a pitcher's park, in a pitcher-friendly era.  His time and place in baseball history was very good to him.

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1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

So, Jim Palmer wasn't all that good?  Is this Jake Arrieta?

I always find it funny that people want to brag about how good Brooks, Belanger, Blair, Grich et al. were, but then don’t want to acknowledge the obvious conclusion that the Orioles’ pitchers would have had a significantly higher ERA if they’d had an average defense behind them.     Palmer himself has no problem acknowledging that fact.   Of course, he also gives himself credit (as he should, IMO) for adjusting his pitching to account for the great defense behind him.   

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