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6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What do you think Villar would cost, assuming his current stats hold steady over the full season?

For what it’s worth, DJ LeMahieu’s arb years went $3.0, $4.8, $8.5 mm.   He was worth 2.4, 5.3, 2.8 rWAR in the seasons preceding each of those salaries.    Villar has made $2.55, 4.82 mm and been worth 0.1, 2.7 and on pace for 1.8 WAR.   Seems like his pay raise should be less than what LeMahieu got, but I agree north of $7 mm seems likely.    

I suggested 8M earlier in the thread. 

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6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What do you think Villar would cost, assuming his current stats hold steady over the full season?

For what it’s worth, DJ LeMahieu’s arb years went $3.0, $4.8, $8.5 mm.   He was worth 2.4, 5.3, 2.8 rWAR in the seasons preceding each of those salaries.    Villar has made $2.55, 4.82 mm and been worth 0.1, 2.7 and on pace for 1.8 WAR.   Seems like his pay raise should be less than what LeMahieu got, but I agree north of $7 mm seems likely.    

I don't think we'll ever know, because I don't think any team that trades for him now will offer him a contract in December. 

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5 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

My point is that Villar is an upgrade over nearly no one. He's not going to be valued and he probably shouldn't be because he's not really an upgrade over anyone. Even the Cubs have Zobrist coming back who they can play at 2B if they decide to bench Russell. Or they'll trade for someone better. I'd be amazed if the return for Villar is better than what we got for Cashner and it probably shouldn't be. We can go back and forth all day, but the reality is there are probably 30+ current 2Bs I'd rank ahead of him

Okay ...So now you just look dumb! You can't possibly believe that and it just ruins intelligent posts about the topic. There is no way he's rated the 31st or higher 2B in MLB baseball. You do the work to argue your point if you'd like. Without looking I'd be willing to bet he'd be somewhere in the mid 20s.

 

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5 hours ago, weams said:

But. You can't subtract Cobb and Davis.  You still have to pay them. Just because they are not rostered does not mean they don't count against revenues. 

I'm saying the Astros didn't have any bad contracts that they couldn't get rid of! Davis and Cobb for 1 more year meet that criteria. Perhaps Cobb comes back next year on fire and can be dealt at the deadline. But I'm certainly not counting on it.

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1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Okay ...So now you just look dumb! You can't possibly believe that and it just ruins intelligent posts about the topic. There is no way he's rated the 31st or higher 2B in MLB baseball. You do the work to argue your point if you'd like. Without looking I'd be willing to bet he'd be somewhere in the mid 20s.

 

That still doesn't mean there's a great market for him.  

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5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

That still doesn't mean there's a great market for him.  

I didn't say he would be dealt. It's an ongoing debate between 3/4 guys and me. 

They think he's DFA fodder who should be dumped for spare parts or not tendered a contract come the off season.

The ridiculous comment about him be the 30+ worst ranked 2nd baseman in the league urged my response. 

I have no idea what to expect from a team looking to pick him up. I have no idea what Elias' asking price is except it's safe to assume he's looking for younger non 40 man talent based on the Cashner deal. Which is really all we have to go on.

 

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Just now, Roll Tide said:

I didn't say he would be dealt. It's an ongoing debate between 3/4 guys and me. 

They think he's DFA fodder who should be dumped for spare parts or not tendered a contract come the off season.

The ridiculous comment about him be the 30+ worst ranked 2nd baseman in the league urged my response. 

I have no idea what to expect from a team looking to pick him up. I have no idea what Elias' asking price is except it's safe to assume he's looking for younger non 40 man talent based on the Cashner deal. Which is really all we have to go on.

 

Right but being ranked 30+ 2nd baseman vs. the mid 20s.  Not much difference there.

I think (hope) Elias targets more 17 year old DSL types. 

 

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11 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Right but being ranked 30+ 2nd baseman vs. the mid 20s.  Not much difference there.

I think (hope) Elias targets more 17 year old DSL types. 

 

I actually think he's middle of the pack. The poster was insinuating that he's the worst staring 2B in the majors. Which just isn't true!  I think he can be traded for something of value if someone needs a 2B.

Id be okay with a couple lottery pick type guys. But hopefully he can find a closer, and more of a sure thing guy to go with that. 

A couple of years ago Peter allegedly block a deal with Houston that was said to include Surhoff's nephew Colin Moran. His current OPS is over 800. And so far his career is .796. I don't think we got anything close in the Britton deal with the Yankees and it's not certain what else was on the table. I know I'd like Moran on our team right now.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

I actually think he's middle of the pack. The poster was insinuating that he's the worst staring 2B in the majors. Which just isn't true!  I think he can be traded for something of value if someone needs a 2B.

Id be okay with a couple lottery pick type guys. But hopefully he can find a closer, and more of a sure thing guy to go with that. 

A couple of years ago Peter allegedly block a deal with Houston that was said to include Surhoff's nephew Colin Moran. His current OPS is over 800. And so far his career is .796. I don't think we got anything close in the Britton deal with the Yankees and it's not certain what else was on the table. I know I'd like Moran on our team right now.

 

I recall 

I'd say he's middle of the pack, too.

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Just now, Moose Milligan said:

I'd say he's middle of the pack, too.

I know and we all exaggerate when trying to make a point. But I had to call him out on it!

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In other news ....We just lost Jace Peterson. He opted out of his contract because he didn't get recalled despite having an OPS of 900.

He's 29 and likely a bust .... but a final look at the expense of cutting Braxton who is terrible would've made sense.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/07/jace-peterson-opts-out-orioles-contract.html

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4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

In other news ....We just lost Jace Peterson. He opted out of his contract because he didn't get recalled despite having an OPS of 900.

He's 29 and likely a bust .... but a final look at the expense of cutting Braxton who is terrible would've made sense.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/07/jace-peterson-opts-out-orioles-contract.html

I think Peterson is better than Wilkerson.    Sorry to lose him (sort of).     

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11 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

In other news ....We just lost Jace Peterson. He opted out of his contract because he didn't get recalled despite having an OPS of 900.

He's 29 and likely a bust .... but a final look at the expense of cutting Braxton who is terrible would've made sense.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/07/jace-peterson-opts-out-orioles-contract.html

I wouldn't say we really lost him.

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31 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Right but being ranked 30+ 2nd baseman vs. the mid 20s.  Not much difference there.

I think (hope) Elias targets more 17 year old DSL types. 

 

30+ is replacement level. Mid 20's is a bona fide major leaguer. Could be an upgrade for someone who has a replacement level 2B or injury. Actually Fangraphs has him #12, and he can play SS.

 

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6 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

30+ is replacement level. Mid 20's is a bona fide major leaguer. Could be an upgrade for someone who has a replacement level 2B or injury. Actually Fangraphs has him #12, and he can play SS.

 

Thanks for the info! I rest my case.

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