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mcloy

Who is next?

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9 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Any reasdon not to pick him up?

His salary is 5m.  That means there is about 2m remaining.  The O's will not claim him because of that.  They are trying to lower payroll not add.

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4 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

In other words, you have no idea.

And how you correlate the bonus money that 16-year old international players are paid with what drafted players get is beyond me. I don't think those numbers have anything to do with each other. 

You don't.  I do.

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Well, the way I look at it, one guy was pay 275k to sign and the other 80k.   If they were in the Amateur  draft that might be a 10th rounder and a 15th rounder.   How many 10 and 15 rounders make it to the majors?   Its the longest of long shots from that viewpoint.

What are you talking about?    $275 k is much higher than the price of a 10th rounder.    That’s the price of a mid-6th rounder.    Slot for a 10th rounder is 140-150 k.

Then you have to factor in that these guys have been playing in the DSL for a couple of months and the evaluations of these players may have changed.   For better or worse.

Bottom line, I’m not flipping cartwheels over these two guys, but I assume Elias and Perez liked their upsides.   I’d certainly say their odds are better than 3% based on the bonuses they received and their performance so far.     It’s not like they’re two completely random DSL guys.   

 

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4 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

I wonder with the rumblings if Givens is moved before tomorrows game?

 

2 hours ago, mcloy said:

Have there been real rumblings or just speculation? 

MLBTR makes a good case as to why he’s valuable.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/07/orioles-trade-rumors-phillies-mychal-givens-nationals.html

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23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What are you talking about?    $275 k is much higher than the price of a 10th rounder.    That’s the price of a mid-6th rounder.    Slot for a 10th rounder is 140-150 k.

Then you have to factor in that these guys have been playing in the DSL for a couple of months and the evaluations of these players may have changed.   For better or worse.

Bottom line, I’m not flipping cartwheels over these two guys, but I assume Elias and Perez liked their upsides.   I’d certainly say their odds are better than 3% based on the bonuses they received and their performance so far.     It’s not like they’re two completely random DSL guys.   

 

I am glad to hear that 275k is about what a 6th rounder would get.   Didn't know that.    Mancini beat the odds as an 8th rounder so maybe there is some hope.  The odds are against a 6th rounder making the majors but if the O's looked at it that way they would never draft passed the 4th round.  Just saying'.

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4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am glad to hear that 275k is about what a 6th rounder would get.   Didn't know that.    Mancini beat the odds as an 8th rounder so maybe there is some hope.  The odds are against a 6th rounder making the majors but if the O's looked at it that way they would never draft passed the 4th round.  Just saying'.

Would you have rather they traded for a Kevin Merrell  or just don't trade anyone?

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5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Would you have rather they traded for a Kevin Merrell  or just don't trade anyone?

I can't say I know enough about what Elias was offered for Cashner to be too critical.   The only thing that is a little weird is trading him in the middle of July.   MacPhail would have squeezed everything he could get for Cashner until minutes before the trade deadline.   Two different guys.  Two different approaches.

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1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I can't say I know enough about what Elias was offered for Cashner to be too critical.   The only thing that is a little weird is trading him in the middle of July.   MacPhail would have squeezed everything he could get for Cashner until minutes before the trade deadline.   Two different guys.  Two different approaches.

Do you think Cashner was worth more than Bailey?  I think they are close enough to equivalent.

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2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Well, the way I look at it, one guy was pay 275k to sign and the other 80k.   If they were in the Amateur  draft that might be a 10th rounder and a 15th rounder.   How many 10 and 15 rounders make it to the majors?   Its the longest of long shots from that viewpoint.

You're comparing apples and oranges.  And you ignore what has been stated multiple times.  We chose these two after having the luxury of seeing what they looked like after 30 games of pro ball.  These guys are signed as essentially high school sophomores and juniors.  Again it's apples and oranges.  Of course, I'm sure the odds are very poor for almost anyone drafted after the 1st round of the amateur draft.  Of course, just because most 3rd rounders don't make it doesn't mean you wouldn't want 5 picks in the third round instead of one.  What do you consider something?  Luis Ortiz, Dillon Tate, Brett Cumberland, Rylan Bannon?  

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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Would you have rather they traded for a Kevin Merrell  or just don't trade anyone?

No need for a Merrell at this point. Someone younger, less speedy. 

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Villar to Cubs for Mike Montgomery and another international teenager is my guess. Similar money and you get another year of control with Montgomery if you want it. He's a project but we need relievers when Givens goes and maybe we can fix him.

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