Jump to content
Frobby

Must Read: Review of the Baysox rotation

Recommended Posts

Last week I noticed how well the starters were doing ( well as many of the A ball starters).  For the first time in a long time we might see a AAA rotation with prospects AND and AA rotation with prospects next year.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Philip, if Means "continues to excel", it's hard to imagine any of our prospects projecting to be better than Means has been. He may get traded at some point if we get a strong offer or he may yet fall back into obscurity, we agree. But Means has been far better than a 4th or 5th starter. Perhaps you meant that all of them project better than Means when he was a prospect. Perhaps I'm mis-reading your post.

Maybe I was a little bit unclear, my point is that Means at his best Probably is going to offer less than many of our other pitching prospects, if they reach or almost reach their projection, And under those circumstances, it would be better to trade him, Because the other guys will offer more.

Also, it is not certain that he will continue to be as good as he has been, which is why I talk about him possibly turning back into a pumpkin, and under those circumstances I think it is also wise to trade him at his peak value. I don’t know whether that peak value will be now or this off-season or next year sometime, Because we don’t know when or whether he will turn back into a pumpkin.

If he continues as he is continuing, I don’t know whether one would define that as a number one or number two or number three, But I am a bit wary of it continuing, so I I think that if he’s good he will leave and if he’s bad he will leave.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Philip said:

Maybe I was a little bit unclear, my point is that Means at his best Probably is going to offer less than many of our other pitching prospects, if they reach or almost reach their projection, And under those circumstances, it would be better to trade him, Because the other guys will offer more.

Also, it is not certain that he will continue to be as good as he has been, which is why I talk about him possibly turning back into a pumpkin, and under those circumstances I think it is also wise to trade him at his peak value. I don’t know whether that peak value will be now or this off-season or next year sometime, Because we don’t know when or whether he will turn back into a pumpkin.

If he continues as he is continuing, I don’t know whether one would define that as a number one or number two or number three, But I am a bit wary of it continuing, so I I think that if he’s good he will leave and if he’s bad he will leave.

But we know it is highly unlikely that most of the prospects reach their potential. If it happens, then it will be a fantastic bit of luck. Because there is such a relatively high probability that some of them will not make it due to performance or injury, then it is important to stock as many good pitchers as you can. If Means finishes the year strong and pitches well next year, then maybe he gets traded. But if he pitches that well, then I think Elias will want to hold onto him as a cheap, quality starting pitcher. He's going to be dirt cheap next year and relatively cheap for another couple of years after that (even if he pitches well). 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

But we know it is highly unlikely that most of the prospects reach their potential. If it happens, then it will be a fantastic bit of luck. Because there is such a relatively high probability that some of them will not make it due to performance or injury, then it is important to stock as many good pitchers as you can. If Means finishes the year strong and pitches well next year, then maybe he gets traded. But if he pitches that well, then I think Elias will want to hold onto him as a cheap, quality starting pitcher. He's going to be dirt cheap next year and relatively cheap for another couple of years after that (even if he pitches well). 

 Yes, that is the conundrum. It is a gamble as to whether his current production will be sustained, or he will come back to Earth as the rest of the league learns the book on him. I am a sell high kind of guy, and because you are right that prospects usually do not pan out,  I would prefer to trade him at peak value, because I’m betting he won’t sustain this.

really hope I’m wrong, though.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Philip said:

 Yes, that is the conundrum. It is a gamble as to whether his current production will be sustained, or he will come back to Earth as the rest of the league learns the book on him. I am a sell high kind of guy, and because you are right that prospects usually do not pan out,  I would prefer to trade him at peak value, because I’m betting he won’t sustain this.

really hope I’m wrong, though.

 

Like this season? If you mean this season then I challenge you to find a recent trade of a comparable player in their rookie year that brought back anything of value. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Like this season? If you mean this season then I challenge you to find a recent trade of a comparable player in their rookie year that brought back anything of value. 

If you want to include after the rookie season we have Pindea and Campos for Montero and Noesi.

Not that Montero ended up being anything but he was well regarded at the time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Like this season? If you mean this season then I challenge you to find a recent trade of a comparable player in their rookie year that brought back anything of value. 

I think a better comparison is to think about what a guy brought in his second season if he regressed? Like I said, the gamble is what he is going to do next year. If he maintains this or gets better than of course no brainer… And if he regresses, falls back to Earth, turns into a pumpkin whatever metaphor you choose, that’s also a no brainer.

But which will it be…?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am not in any way interested in the Orioles guessing what prospects to "Sell High." So I'll hang on to what we have and see how it rolls. 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, Philip said:

I think a better comparison is to think about what a guy brought in his second season if he regressed? Like I said, the gamble is what he is going to do next year. If he maintains this or gets better than of course no brainer… And if he regresses, falls back to Earth, turns into a pumpkin whatever metaphor you choose, that’s also a no brainer.

But which will it be…?

I challenged you to find a trade because I don’t think one exists. I don’t think Means is tradable for anything of value yet. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

I challenged you to find a trade because I don’t think one exists. I don’t think Means is tradable for anything of value yet. 

In order to suggest a specific trade, we would need much more information than we have. I'm inclined to agree about his current value, but that's not my point. I'm suggesting he be traded at peak value, because even at his best, he most likely won't be as valuable as a keeper as he would as a trade piece, and the conundrum is determining when that value will be highest. If we'd traded Mike Wright after his second start, his value wouldn't have been very high, but by golly, that's the highest it ever was.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Philip said:

In order to suggest a specific trade, we would need much more information than we have. I'm inclined to agree about his current value, but that's not my point. I'm suggesting he be traded at peak value, because even at his best, he most likely won't be as valuable as a keeper as he would as a trade piece, and the conundrum is determining when that value will be highest. If we'd traded Mike Wright after his second start, his value wouldn't have been very high, but by golly, that's the highest it ever was.

I can never tell if you just don’t get it or if you understand and just chase your tail until the other discussion participant moves on. I’ll try one more time: I don’t think ANY rookies like Means have been traded, at least recently, for anything of value. No GM is going to give up anything of real value because he is an unknown. And the Orioles aren’t giving him away. I wasn’t asking you to suggest a specific trade. I was asking for you to find any comparable trade of a rookie. I don’t know of one. You keep saying peak value. I’m saying he doesn’t have any real trade value this year. The Orioles could give him away, but of course they aren’t going to do that. 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you want to include after the rookie season we have Pindea and Campos for Montero and Noesi.

Not that Montero ended up being anything but he was well regarded at the time.

I meant during rookie year. But even that deal is old. i think it was viewed as very unusual even then. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

I can never tell if you just don’t get it or if you understand and just chase your tail until the other discussion participant moves on. I’ll try one more time: I don’t think ANY rookies like Means have been traded, at least recently, for anything of value. No GM is going to give up anything of real value because he is an unknown. And the Orioles aren’t giving him away. I wasn’t asking you to suggest a specific trade. I was asking for you to find any comparable trade of a rookie. I don’t know of one. You keep saying peak value. I’m saying he doesn’t have any real trade value this year. The Orioles could give him away, but of course they aren’t going to do that. 

I understand completely and you're missing my point.

Means should be traded at peak value for reasons I've already mentioned. The trick is knowing when that is. That's all I'm saying.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores

News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2018 End of Season Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2019 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats







×
×
  • Create New...