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Tony-OH

TT: Time to demote Smith Jr. and bring up Stewart

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9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm not quite sure you are grasping what's going on this year. You are still thinking like the Orioles are in contention and Elias is trying to bring up the best guys he has to win.

This year is about evaluation and development. I'll be very surprised if we see Hays before September regardless of whether he's ready or not.

What good long term goal does it serve to bring up Hays? Let's say the Orioles win two more games then they would have without it and end up one game ahead of Detroit in the standings. For those two ins, you want to have the 2nd overall pick vs the 1st? 

Let Hays put up some great AAA numbers this year and then be ready to compete for a spot on the team in 2020.

As I said, you may be right.  

I just  think Elias sees Hays as more of a long term solution than Stewart.   Therefore if Hays is playing well at AAA he gets promoted.   Elias is filling holes and CF is a hole.  Santander and Wilkerson are not long term solutions in CF.  Hays is.

This is not about winning games.  The pitching will keep the O's losing a good number of games.   This is about developing the long terms players.   Hays in CF is a part of that.  JMO

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Just now, atomic said:

Hays already has played 20 games in the majors.  Does it really make a difference in service time if they bring him up in September as opposed to start the season next year?

It's all about the days on an active roster. Each season has 187 days and the rule of 172 days = 1 year. Hays has 34 days in the big league right now. If the Orioles don't bring him up this year and then don't bring him up until about 20 days into next season, Hays would only be at one season by the end of next season.

At least that's how  think it works on the back of a napkin. ;) 

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7 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

It does not. Unless they are going to wait until mid-June 2020 to bring up Hays, the service time die is cast. Tony's worry that Hays may help the Orioles win and get the #2 pick instead of the #1 pick is a valid concern, but it is, in my opinion, too cynical of a reason to deny him MLB at-bats.

Elias should have kept Sisco and Santander in the minors if he was worried about losing the 1:1 pick.

I think the pitching is bad enough to keep the O's drafting high.  Whether that is 1:1 I don't know.

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6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

As I said, you may be right.  

I just  think Elias sees Hays as more of a long term solution than Stewart.   Therefore if Hays is playing well at AAA he gets promoted.   Elias is filling holes and CF is a hole.  Santander and Wilkerson are not long term solutions in CF.  Hays is.

This is not about winning games.  The pitching will keep the O's losing a good number of games.   This is about developing the long terms players.   Hays in CF is a part of that.  JMO

Everyone sees and knows this. But you really are not grasping who and why people are getting promoted during this year. 

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1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Everyone sees and knows this. But you really are not grasping who and why people are getting promoted during this year. 

OK, why were Santander and Sisco promoted?

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16 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

It does not. Unless they are going to wait until mid-June 2020 to bring up Hays, the service time die is cast. Tony's worry that Hays may help the Orioles win and get the #2 pick instead of the #1 pick is a valid concern, but it is, in my opinion, too cynical of a reason to deny him MLB at-bats.

From looking at the reviews of the guys who will be prospective #1 overalls I don't see that there is one dominant guy in next years draft.  I think if we finish a head of the Tigers that means we are playing better and have better players.  Really finishing the worst 2 years in a row doesn't hold much appeal to me. #2 pick overall should get you a good player. 

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8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It's all about the days on an active roster. Each season has 187 days and the rule of 172 days = 1 year. Hays has 34 days in the big league right now. If the Orioles don't bring him up this year and then don't bring him up until about 20 days into next season, Hays would only be at one season by the end of next season.

At least that's how  think it works on the back of a napkin. ;) 

It would be 187-34 I would think, so to get an extra season would require the first 35 days of next season in the minors. So I was mistaken when I said June, I was thinking it was 15 or so plus 35, but it would only be 35. So call it May 5th or so.

That said, it would be begging for a challenge from the Union if they were to hold him back that long. To not bring him up in September would be pretty obvious unless he were to get injured.

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7 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

It would be 187-34 I would think, so to get an extra season would require the first 35 days of next season in the minors. So I was mistaken when I said June, I was thinking it was 15 or so plus 35, but it would only be 35. So call it May 5th or so.

Its 34 plus 15 if the O's want an extra season of Hays.   I don't see them waiting that long.  He would have been up earlier this season if healthy.

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13 minutes ago, atomic said:

From looking at the reviews of the guys who will be prospective #1 overalls I don't see that there is one dominant guy in next years draft.  I think if we finish a head of the Tigers that means we are playing better and have better players.  Really finishing the worst 2 years in a row doesn't hold much appeal to me. #2 pick overall should get you a good player. 

Yeah, at this time last year everyone thought we would be drafting Witt at 1:1.

I would be perfectly happy if Stewart and Hays come up and hit the cover off the ball for the last 8--10 weeks of the season and we end up with the number 2 pick.

Of course I have a Season Ticket plan this season and actually attend a decent number of games, so my interest in the Orioles winning games this year is probably higher than that of many other posters. Hell, bring up Diaz solely for my entertainment value!

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3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Its 34 plus 15 if the O's want an extra season on Hays.   I don't see them waiting that long.  He would have been up earlier this season if healthy.

I believe you since you have posted accurately on this stuff for years, but can I get a citation for that? I couldn't find one.

I agree that it is likely moot.

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1 minute ago, MurphDogg said:

You have definitely posted accurately on this stuff for years, but can I get a citation for that? I couldn't find one.

I agree that it is likely moot.

Quote

Under the CBA, 1 year of service is defined as 172 days. A player may earn up to 172 days of Major League service during a championship season (regular season), which lasts 187 calendar days.

See Service Time at this link.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/transactions-glossary/

So its the 34 days of service time the Hays has plus the difference between 187 - 172 which is 15 day.  Maybe its 16 days to be safe.

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8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Its 34 plus 15 if the O's want an extra season of Hays.   I don't see them waiting that long.  He would have been up earlier this season if healthy.

I really want to see Hays but I don't think it's unreasonable to keep him in AAA until June next year to get an additional year of service time. The guy has only played 14 games at AAA. He's also played in only 124 games the last two years. Having him play 50 games in AAA this year and another 50 games in AAA next year seems like a prudent move to me.

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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

He very well might be, but in a season of evaluation, this is the time to give him those PAs to find out. 

I was actually referring to Smith as being a 4th OFer type at best.  Though it certainly wouldn't surprise me if that's what Stewart turns out to be.  I agree that Stewart should get the playing time going forward.

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1 minute ago, TINSTAAPP said:

I really want to see Hays but I don't think it's unreasonable to keep him in AAA until June next year to get an additional year of service time. The guy has only played 14 games at AAA. He's also played in only 124 games the last two years. Having him play 50 games in AAA this year and another 50 games in AAA next year seems like a prudent move to me.

I don't care about 30 year old super 2 Austin Hays.  Odds are good I'll be in favor of non-tending him.  (assuming the rules haven't changed in the next CBA, which they will)

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6 minutes ago, TINSTAAPP said:

I really want to see Hays but I don't think it's unreasonable to keep him in AAA until June next year to get an additional year of service time. The guy has only played 14 games at AAA. He's also played in only 124 games the last two years. Having him play 50 games in AAA this year and another 50 games in AAA next year seems like a prudent move to me.

So you are going to sit Hays for 28 days in September instead on developing him?

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