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Greg Pappas

Trade Value Expectations

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As far as the players you believe could be dealt, what sort of prospect return (value) would you expect?  We pretty much discuss this in all the separate threads about the individual players, but I wanted a thread that would make it easier to compare potential compensation for each of our guys.

Trey Mancini---
Michael Givens---
Jonathan Villar---
Renato Nunez---
John Means---
Dylan Bundy---
Paul Fry---
Hanser Alberto---
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23 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

As far as the players you believe could be dealt, what sort of prospect return (value) would you expect?  We pretty much discuss this in all the separate threads about the individual players, but I wanted a thread that would make it easier to compare potential compensation for each of our guys.

Trey Mancini---
Michael Givens---
Jonathan Villar---
Renato Nunez---
John Means---
Dylan Bundy---
Paul Fry---
Hanser Alberto---
 
I listed below what I would accept as the GM.... by lottery pick I mean a 17-19 year old international player.
 
Trey Mancini--- A top 100, a organizational top 20, a top 20-30, and a lottery pick
 
Michael Givens--- Organization top 10, a top 20-30, and a lottery pick
 
Jonathan  Villar -- a top 20-30, a 25-27 year old AAA guy, and a lottery pick
 
Renato Nunez--- 2 Organizational top 15-30, 2 lottery picks
 
John Means--- Don't want to trade him ...2 tip 100, a top 15-30, and a lottery ticket
 
Dylan  Bundy--- Organizational 10-20, a top 20-30, and a Lottery pick
 
Paul Fry--- A top 20-30, and 2 lottery picks
 
Hanser Alberto --- don't want to trade him!  Top 100, Organizational to 10-20, and 2 lottery picks
 
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I would just say that at the prices roll tide set, I would trade Givens, Fry and Villar and hold onto the others.

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KC got nothing for Diekman. I expect we'll get a couple 18 y.o. lottery tickets for Givens. I'll be surprised if anyone else gets traded.

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These are just guesses of things I'd be happy with. 
 
Trey Mancini--- A poor man's Machado package? I'm struggling to pinpoint his value.  One backend top 100 prospect and two other solid prospects too.  
 
Michael Givens--- Using the Ryan Pressly trade from last year, I'd expect two team top 30 prospects but none that are close mlb top 100.
 
Jonathan Villar--- International signing slots, cash, or International signing, etc.
 
Renato Nunez--- Don't think they trade him.  Only 25 and they don't have any third base prospects so he's the guy at the hot corner for the foreseeable future. 
 
John Means--- They'd really have to overpay for me.  I don't think he's as good as his first half but he reminds of Wei Yin Chen and is under control for 5 more seasons.  That's a lot of value. 
 
Dylan Bundy--- Not a Bundy fan so a couple of a team's top 30 prospects, I guess.  Hope he's traded.  
 
Paul Fry--- International signing slots, cash, or International signing, etc.
 
Hanser Alberto--- International signing slots, cash, or International signing, etc.
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18 minutes ago, Whammer said:

KC got nothing for Diekman. I expect we'll get a couple 18 y.o. lottery tickets for Givens. I'll be surprised if anyone else gets traded.

So a couple of things ...... Diekman is 31 year old journeyman. While he's does have good K numbers, he also has a career 5+ BBs per new nine. What's more he is a partial season rental. 

Givens is 29 ....his stuff is plus, he also has a good K/9 rate and his career BB/9 is 3.5 per. In addition, he has 2 more years of control.

Blanco Also looks like a pretty and was the A's 29th rated guy according to MLB.com. Aquino is a 20 year old Dominican That at 19 the A's actually had him at AAA for a couple of appearances. He probably has good stuff but not rated yet,

To say they got nothing for half a season of a journeyman reliever is exaggerated to say the least.

The two pitchers simpl aren't comps,

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IMO it is very unlikely we get a legit top 100 guy for Mancini. 1B, DH, poor OF defense types are not valued like that anymore. I'd like love to be wrong though.

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26 minutes ago, Lucky_13 said:
These are just guesses of things I'd be happy with. 
 
Trey Mancini--- A poor man's Machado package? I'm struggling to pinpoint his value.  One backend top 100 prospect and two other solid prospects too.  
 
Michael Givens--- Using the Ryan Pressly trade from last year, I'd expect two team top 30 prospects but none that are close mlb top 100.
 
Jonathan Villar--- International signing slots, cash, or International signing, etc.
 
Renato Nunez--- Don't think they trade him.  Only 25 and they don't have any third base prospects so he's the guy at the hot corner for the foreseeable future. 
 
John Means--- They'd really have to overpay for me.  I don't think he's as good as his first half but he reminds of Wei Yin Chen and is under control for 5 more seasons.  That's a lot of value. 
 
Dylan Bundy--- Not a Bundy fan so a couple of a team's top 30 prospects, I guess.  Hope he's traded.  
 
Paul Fry--- International signing slots, cash, or International signing, etc.
 
Hanser Alberto--- International signing slots, cash, or International signing, etc.

Just curious on Alberto, you would trade him for international slots or cash considerations? 

Hes only 26 and under control until 2023, and seems to have figured it out at least at the plate. If he becomes more patient and walks some he can be a real nice piece. 

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 I could not begin to estimate the return value of any of the guys you mentioned, because there are too many variables.

Based on what appears to be organizational philosophy right now, I would expect that anybody traded would bring back a low level prospect that is high risk and high upside.

However, I strongly feel that none of the guys you mentioned has any significant trade value. If a player is traded it will be for reasons unrelated to the return. For instance, Villar Might be traded because he’s at serious risk of being non-tendered this fall, and something is better than nothing.

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41 minutes ago, Whammer said:

KC got nothing for Diekman. I expect we'll get a couple 18 y.o. lottery tickets for Givens. I'll be surprised if anyone else gets traded.

Diekmann is 32, Givens is 29. Not a huge difference but significant because 29 is still a prime year and 32 is declining.

Plus, Givens became a pitcher late so there’s much less mileage on his arm. Roll Tide’s estimates are wildly hopeful, but Givens will bring a bit more than Diekman did.

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54 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:
 
I listed below what I would accept as the GM.... by lottery pick I mean a 17-19 year old international player.
 
Trey Mancini--- A top 100, a organizational top 20, a top 20-30, and a lottery pick
 
Michael Givens--- Organization top 10, a top 20-30, and a lottery pick
 
Jonathan  Villar -- a top 20-30, a 25-27 year old AAA guy, and a lottery pick
 
Renato Nunez--- 2 Organizational top 15-30, 2 lottery picks
 
John Means--- Don't want to trade him ...2 tip 100, a top 15-30, and a lottery ticket
 
Dylan  Bundy--- Organizational 10-20, a top 20-30, and a Lottery pick
 
Paul Fry--- A top 20-30, and 2 lottery picks
 
Hanser Alberto --- don't want to trade him!  Top 100, Organizational to 10-20, and 2 lottery picks
 

I'd be surprised to get a Top 100 straight up for Mancini, much less three others. I could be wrong, but most of us don't think we'll find out, as he's unlikely to be dealt.

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5 minutes ago, Philip said:

 I could not begin to estimate the return value of any of the guys you mentioned, because there are too many variables.

Based on what appears to be organizational philosophy right now, I would expect that anybody traded would bring back a low level prospect that is high risk and high upside.

However, I strongly feel that none of the guys you mentioned has any significant trade value. If a player is traded it will be for reasons unrelated to the return. For instance, Villar Might be traded because he’s at serious risk of being non-tendered this fall, and something is better than nothing.

There are plenty of young prospects in good organizations that would be a better return than the Cashner approach.

The Dodgers have Lux, Amaya,  Ruiz, Cartaya, and May who are all 21 or younger but rate in their top 15. 

I doubt you see them trade our more valuable players for more 17-18 Dominican players for our more valuable players. May 1 as part of the package.

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12 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Just curious on Alberto, you would trade him for international slots or cash considerations? 

Hes only 26 and under control until 2023, and seems to have figured it out at least at the plate. If he becomes more patient and walks some he can be a real nice piece. 

I just looked up Alberto. His defense is positive which is a mild surprise. His BABIP is very high so there’s that, and his WRC is only 95, but he might be a keeper. 2B if Villar is traded? 

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11 minutes ago, Philip said:

I just looked up Alberto. His defense is positive which is a mild surprise. His BABIP is very high so there’s that, and his WRC is only 95, but he might be a keeper. 2B if Villar is traded? 

Honestly I'd keep him unless overwhelmed. Villar is certainly tradeable but I'm not giving him away either.

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