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What if Mancini/Santander/Núñez are actually this good?

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11 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

I don’t think his style of play, the .300/.300/.300 slash line, will last long. But that’s just my opinion.

I agree with your skepticism but your slash line is a bit off. His OPS is up to about .730.    He really is a nugget, presently. 

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35 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I agree with your skepticism but your slash line is a bit off. His OPS is up to about .730.    He really is a nugget, presently. 

He's a good utility guy to have around.  But his OPS+ is 97 and he's hitting .313.  If a few things don't go his way and he hits .270 or .280 he's kind of a drag offensively.  

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1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I think you're getting carried away.  We might be a pitching staff away from being an average/decent team.  The idea is to build for something bigger.  Your going right back to Peter Angelo's mode.

I agree with this. Although I think it could be wise to hang onto some of the younger guys if we won't get much back. If everything were to hit just right, it's not impossible for us to see some improvement in 2021 if we hung onto some guys. Then maybe with international investment and solid drafting/development, the farm has built up without a lot more trades. Top 5 pick this year and top 5 pick next year. 

The thing with that though, is young pitchers take time to produce. And that's where I would still target 2022 and beyond for something more sustainable, as you are saying. 

BUT, I don't think it's crazy to alter some plans, IF guys are still producing first half next year. The thing about this too is playing the contracts right. That's half the battle. You wouldn't want half of your line up's contract expiring as you're entering contention window. 

 

Edited by Bubble Buddy
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2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I agree with your skepticism but your slash line is a bit off. His OPS is up to about .730.    He really is a nugget, presently. 

.300/.300/.400 doesn't have the same ring to it.

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10 hours ago, LA2 said:

The AC (Analytically Correct) shorthand would have been Caleb "13 OPS+" Joseph. That's also pretty historically poor!

Fault me for not knowing his OPS+ for the season off the top of my head.

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Nunez strikes me as a guy who is fine for teams like this but his shaky defense and all or nothing at bats don’t have me expecting him around even a few years from now.  

Santander and Severino possibly, but I’d be less surprised if the 2023 Orioles still had anyone who is on the 25man today. (Means possibly but he’s on the IL)

Those guys may be the most we see left from today.

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13 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Mancini was an 8th round pick.  Also, many of the draft picks under DD's regime are having good/breakout years.  Coincidence or maybe a lot of the problem was in development/coaching?

I kept saying that was the biggest problem.

You don't go from the 22nd to the 8th farm system just from this year's amateur and international drafts either.

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15 hours ago, JohnD said:

Nunez strikes me as a guy who is fine for teams like this but his shaky defense and all or nothing at bats don’t have me expecting him around even a few years from now. 

He's basically a healthy Mark Trumbo, but his defense has been less embarrassing.  Good teams sometimes have a player like that batting down in the lineup.  But that kind of player needs a 115-120 OPS+ or they're scraping along replacement level. 

So far it looks like he doesn't have much of a DH penalty, that also has some value.  Some guys don't DH well.

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I'm curious what their numbers would be normalized to, say, pre-juiced ball numbers.

That said, my main problem with Nunez is his defense isn't good. In a way, he's like Mancini. He can hit, but can't field very well. With a young pitching team, you can't have many holes defensively.

Santander is way too small of a sample size for me to get excited either way. Even Nunez is the same way. If at the end of the year they're doing this, I'd sell high. Nunez is 25 and will be 29 when the O's would most likely hit their stride. Those aren't players you build around, especially if they have defensive shortcomings.

Santander is at least interesting as I think his ceiling as defensive player is higher than the other guys.

All said, if the price is right, trade all 3. Mancini and Nunez I'd be curious what they net at *this* trade deadline.

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1 hour ago, LookitsPuck said:

I'm curious what their numbers would be normalized to, say, pre-juiced ball numbers.

I'm curious about MLB's plans for the ball.  Are they going all in and this is the new normal, or are we set for a 33% reduction in homers next year and guys like Nunez with nothing but power are marginalized?

My guess is that since I'd love to see a more contact-oriented, ball-in-play, athletic kind of game they'll juice the ball 20% more next year and teams like the Padres, Marlins and Giants will move the fences in 20' because they're feeling left out.

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2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'm curious about MLB's plans for the ball.  Are they going all in and this is the new normal, or are we set for a 33% reduction in homers next year and guys like Nunez with nothing but power are marginalized?

My guess is that since I'd love to see a more contact-oriented, ball-in-play, athletic kind of game they'll juice the ball 20% more next year and teams like the Padres, Marlins and Giants will move the fences in 20' because they're feeling left out.

One good way not to find out is to listen to our Commissioner.

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