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AceKing

I really want to keep Villar

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9 minutes ago, weams said:

I think that is a close to impossible scenario. 

You might be right but our SS options are embarrassing. Plus how much does Villar setting the table help out the hitters behind him?

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1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

You might be right but our SS options are embarrassing. Plus how much does Villar setting the table help out the hitters behind him?

Chris Davis could play shortstop.  Hanser is probably as good there as Villar.

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5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

You might be right but our SS options are embarrassing. Plus how much does Villar setting the table help out the hitters behind him?

I have no idea whether the Orioles will shell out millions of dollars to retain any over-25-years-old (or so) position players next year (or the following year). But a couple of observations:

1. While I don't know about Elias, Hyde sure seems to like the speed game. Unlike the Orioles' other fast guys, Villar can hit. From both sides of the plate. 

2. I think the Orioles may be making a mistake by peeling back salary to the bare minimum plus the contracted amounts for Davis + Bundy + a portion of Cobb + maybe Givens. The Orioles are trying to copy the 'Stros' rebuilding plan, but there are two obvious differences in those teams' situations: the Orioles' trip from worst to contention is likely to take longer, and the rebuilt Orioles' chances of ever winning a division title, let alone dominating their division for several years or ever getting to the World Series, are significantly worse than Houston's were when they embarked on their plan.

Now I'm getting into an area about which I know even less than I do about other stiff I opine on, but I wonder about the long-term effects on the Orioles ' dwindling fan base and ticket sales of several years in which they neither promote intriguing young position players nor retain the few competent major leaguers they have acquired via trades or free agencies. (I'm assuming that Mancini is in a separate category and will be around for a while, though I realize there's no certainty of that.)

I don't think the average fan or potential fan, adult or kid, cares much about the success of Bowie or Delmarva. I think they want to see, in person or on MASN, guys in Oriole uniforms who have at least a chance to win, who won't be out of a game after the second inning, and who they either learn to identify with over the course of a couple of seasons or see as potential parts of a brighter Oriole future. The Orioles' rebuilding strategy apparently will offer fans very little or none of these things for at least a few years (2018-20); that's pretty much what the Astros did after Luhnow was hired as GM between the 2011 and '12 seasons. How many of those fans will give up their season tickets, buy tickets to fewer games (or none at all), and how many will come back if and when the Orioles succeed in their turnaround are things I can't begin to predict. But it seems to me that the investment of, say, $5 to $10 million in each of the next couple of years on competent ML position players who won't block anyone in the system might pay for itself in the long run by preserving a little more of what remains of the fan base, though I suppose nobody will ever know one way or the other. 

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2 hours ago, weams said:

The 2020 Orioles won't carry his expense. 

But he looks too good to non tender.   Looks more like a tender and trade scenario.   He will probably be very available again this off season.   Elias will have to get creative to trade him.

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Here’s why we tender Villar,

1. He helps out the lineup. Who wants to see Mancini get pitched around?  He helps everyone slot into their correct spots in the lineup.  It takes a lot of pressure of other players.

2. Offseason trade potential. There wasn’t a demand for his skillset at the break. But teams like Clev, Oak, LAA, Cinn, Cubs,  and SF, might want a MIddle IF, top of lineup, vet bat, on a 1/$9 million deal. Low risk. Plus in the offseason, teams think they’re contenders. Looking at you SEA. 

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I see a Jim Johnson-like trade happening right before the non-tender deadline. The O's shouldn't pay Villar $8 million to play on a team that will suck with or without him.

Fans will have real outfielders in Hays, Santander and Stewart to enjoy next season.

The infield will have to wait. Maybe they'll pick up a waiver claim or 12 or a few minor league free agents going into spring training. Hechavarria should be available at some point. He always is.

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15 minutes ago, wildcard said:

But he looks too good to non tender.   Looks more like a tender and trade scenario.   He will probably be very available again this off season.   Elias will have to get creative to trade him.

No one else wants him for the burden of 7 million. He'll be a 2-3 Million FA.

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1 minute ago, markeubanks said:

im no genius but seems like a good idea to keep the good players.

mark

Before this team is good again, he would have aged out.

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46 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Here’s why we tender Villar,

1. He helps out the lineup. Who wants to see Mancini get pitched around?  He helps everyone slot into their correct spots in the lineup.  It takes a lot of pressure of other players.

2. Offseason trade potential. There wasn’t a demand for his skillset at the break. But teams like Clev, Oak, LAA, Cinn, Cubs,  and SF, might want a MIddle IF, top of lineup, vet bat, on a 1/$9 million deal. Low risk. Plus in the offseason, teams think they’re contenders. Looking at you SEA. 

But where are those teams going to play him? If one or more of them need a second baseman, OK. I don't think any team that's in contention, or aspires to be, would play him at SS. I don't think he has much value as a utility guy. 

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47 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Here’s why we tender Villar,

1. He helps out the lineup. Who wants to see Mancini get pitched around?  He helps everyone slot into their correct spots in the lineup.  It takes a lot of pressure of other players.

2. Offseason trade potential. There wasn’t a demand for his skillset at the break. But teams like Clev, Oak, LAA, Cinn, Cubs,  and SF, might want a MIddle IF, top of lineup, vet bat, on a 1/$9 million deal. Low risk. Plus in the offseason, teams think they’re contenders. Looking at you SEA. 

I've been hearing about Villar's trade potential for over a year now, but no one ever seems to be interested in him. I agree that his offensive numbers (on paper) look respectable this season, but there must be something else going on. Maybe teams view him as more of an accumulator with defensive shortcomings on a very bad team? Whatever it is it's enough for me not like the chances of Orioles being able to trade him. 

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41 minutes ago, weams said:

No one else wants him for the burden of 7 million. He'll be a 2-3 Million FA.

Agree with this 100%. Someone will take a chance on him for that price, but definitely not $7M. I think if someone's going to give a 2B that kind of money this off season it's going to be Scooter Gennett. 

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1 hour ago, weams said:

Chris Davis could play shortstop.  Hanser is probably as good there as Villar.

Please no more Davis after this season. 

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1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I've been hearing about Villar's trade potential for over a year now, but no one ever seems to be interested in him. I agree that his offensive numbers (on paper) look respectable this season, but there must be something else going on. Maybe teams view him as more of an accumulator with defensive shortcomings on a very bad team? Whatever it is it's enough for me not like the chances of Orioles being able to trade him. 

Villar is a "'good bad player" as he looks good on the current Orioles, but would be a role a player on a legit playoff team. 

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44 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Villar is a "'good bad player" as he looks good on the current Orioles, but would be a role a player on a legit playoff team. 

Villar is a 2.5-win player, on pace for 3+.  There can't have been five teams in MLB history who had 3-win players at every position.  There may have been none.  An average 90+ win team has multiple positions where they're below-average.

The '27 Yankees gave about 1000 PAs and 450 innings to below-average players.

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