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AceKing

I really want to keep Villar

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11 hours ago, weams said:

But never 7. Right. And there is the rub. The Orioles or anyone the Orioles trade him to will have to pay him close to seven million through arbitration.  So he'll be a non tender. 

Weams, I’m usually with you 98% of the time. This is that 2%.  

Villar isn’t going to get $7 million in arb. His $4.825 salary could go as high as doubled, $9.65 million. Still at that price, it’s not a bad 1 year deal. 

The whole no team wanted him at the trade deadline doesn’t matter come offseason time. 20+ teams will think they have a shot at the playoffs versus the 8-10 around the deadline. This trade deadline season was one of the weirdest in recent history. There wasn’t a real need for middle infielders. Teams chose to not go overboard with stocking their teams for playoff runs, and to hold onto pretty much all their prospects. 

I’m fine with bringing Villar back just on the fact alone that he helps everyone else slot into a comfortable spot in the lineup. His speed and being on base, has to be helping Mancini a bit. It’s a trickle down effect. 

Plus we have zero options at SS next year. Watch a guy like Jose Isglesias bag a 3/27 deal.  Villar would be in that ballpark. 

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4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Weams, I’m usually with you 98% of the time. This is that 2%.  

Villar isn’t going to get $7 million in arb. His $4.825 salary could go as high as doubled, $9.65 million. Still at that price, it’s not a bad 1 year deal. 

The whole no team wanted him at the trade deadline doesn’t matter come offseason time. 20+ teams will think they have a shot at the playoffs versus the 8-10 around the deadline. This trade deadline season was one of the weirdest in recent history. There wasn’t a real need for middle infielders. Teams chose to not go overboard with stocking their teams for playoff runs, and to hold onto pretty much all their prospects. 

I’m fine with bringing Villar back just on the fact alone that he helps everyone else slot into a comfortable spot in the lineup. His speed and being on base, has to be helping Mancini a bit. It’s a trickle down effect. 

Plus we have zero options at SS next year. Watch a guy like Jose Isglesias bag a 3/27 deal.  Villar would be in that ballpark. 

Very good post. I'm not sure I am convinced, but I'm moved let's say. You have facts and equivalencies to defend your thoughts. 

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17 hours ago, Frobby said:

Why do you say this?    He’s having a good year and easily could start on many playoff teams.    Among qualifying 2B, he’s 10th in wOBA, 9th in wRC+, 7th in fWAR.     

I truly don’t understand the lack of respect for Villar by some posters. He’s not an all star, but he’s a solid player having a good season.  

He is careless and sloppy. It is impossible to fix careless and sloppy(I think there’s also been knocks about him hustling, but I discount those.) But you cannot fix careless. The Astros got rid of him when they got good, and the Brewers got rid of him when they got good. He is a player for bad teams and each good team that wants a shortstop or second baseman is going to get a better one. 

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6 minutes ago, Philip said:

He is careless and sloppy. It is impossible to fix careless and sloppy(I think there’s also been knocks about him hustling, but I discount those.) But you cannot fix careless. The Astros got rid of him when they got good, and the Brewers got rid of him when they got good. He is a player for bad teams and each good team that wants a shortstop or second baseman is going to get a better one. 

I don’t think he’s careless. He’s aggressive, but he does have that “cool” attitude that whenever a guy makes a mistake, people will point that out. SS is kind of a stretch for him. We’re a last place team, they’ve asked him to be aggressive on the bases. 

People say the homer/strikeout stuff is boring. Then we get a guy that puts pressure on defense and he’s careless. Can’t have it both ways. The station to station stuff is lame, and really for good teams only. Why stand at a base when Davis, Martin, etc..., are coming up behind you?

I’ll take the 35+ steals he’s on pace for. 

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1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I don’t think he’s careless. He’s aggressive, but he does have that “cool” attitude that whenever a guy makes a mistake, people will point that out. SS is kind of a stretch for him. We’re a last place team, they’ve asked him to be aggressive on the bases. 

People say the homer/strikeout stuff is boring. Then we get a guy that puts pressure on defense and he’s careless. Can’t have it both ways. The station to station stuff is lame, and really for good teams only. Why stand at a base when Davis, Martin, etc..., are coming up behind you?

I’ll take the 35+ steals he’s on pace for. 

Villar is careless. His baserunning mistakes are not the result of being aggressive, because being aggressive involves picking your spots carefully and not just running whenever you feel like it. Overall he’s been successful, But you can never rest with him because you never know when the next tootblan is coming.

I think he has the highest WAR on the team, despite a -5.0 dWAR.  But I think that’s more because the rest of the team is so awful.

I don’t mind if the team decides to keep him, and they might very well, but my feeling is that they won’t. Cheaper second basemen will be available.

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17 hours ago, Sessh said:

I think it should also be pointed out that Villar seems to have cleaned up his game with regard to making mistakes on the bases. Maybe I missed some bad plays, but it's been awhile since he's made big mistakes on the bases. His throwing accuracy may be his worst area defensively, but he's certainly athletic enough.

His reputation for making mistakes on the bases is greatly overstated.    The fact is, despite a few mistakes here and there, he’s a plus baserunner.  BB-ref has him at +5 baserunning runs, BP has him at +4.5, 7th best in all MLB.  https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=2879557

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

His reputation for making mistakes on the bases is greatly overstated.    The fact is, despite a few mistakes here and there, he’s a plus baserunner.  BB-ref has him at +5 baserunning runs, BP has him at +4.5, 7th best in all MLB.  https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=2879557

Fans tend to value baserunners who're never thrown out.  Baserunners who're never thrown out are probably so conservative that they're costing the team runs.  Same thing applies to third base coaches; fans invariably think the break-even-point is never getting thrown out.

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5 hours ago, Philip said:

He is careless and sloppy. It is impossible to fix careless and sloppy(I think there’s also been knocks about him hustling, but I discount those.) But you cannot fix careless. The Astros got rid of him when they got good, and the Brewers got rid of him when they got good. He is a player for bad teams and each good team that wants a shortstop or second baseman is going to get a better one. 

The Astros got rid of him when they got better options (Altuve, Correa, and Bregman). The Brewers got rid of him when they got (what they thought were) better options (Kiura, Moustakas, Schoop). He should have value to a team that does not have better options.

He is up to 2.5 WAR now (fWAR has him 2.8), well ahead of Mancini. He should end up around 3 WAR. That is building off 1.3 WAR in 209 AB's for the O's last year. That is a very solid player.

As far as the "careless and sloppy" rap, I really don't get where this is coming from. I feel like I must be watching a different player. I see a guy who brings the speed game, plays hard, and always has a positive attitude despite playing on a terrible team. I have never seen him with his head down. With 7 CS, he has an 80% success rate, above the break-even point. Yes, he is prone to errors and is more of a SS than a 2B, and his OBP is lower than you would want for his profile. Still a good player.

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Just now, Aristotelian said:

The Astros got rid of him when they got better options (Altuve, Correa, and Bregman). The Brewers got rid of him when they got (what they thought were) better options (Kiura, Moustakas, Schoop). He should have value to a team that does not have better options.

He is up to 2.5 WAR now (fWAR has him 2.8), well ahead of Mancini. He should end up around 3 WAR. That is building off 1.3 WAR in 209 AB's for the O's last year. That is a very solid player.

As far as the "careless and sloppy" rap, I really don't get where this is coming from. I feel like I must be watching a different player. I see a guy who brings the speed game, plays hard, and always has a positive attitude despite playing on a terrible team. I have never seen him with his head down. With 7 CS, he has an 80% success rate, above the break-even point. Yes, he is prone to errors and is more of a SS than a 2B, and his OBP is lower than you would want for his profile. Still a good player.

The Brewers were actively shopping him.  I think it is fair to say that they wanted him gone.

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12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The Brewers were actively shopping him.  I think it is fair to say that they wanted him gone.

Fair enough. I do believe having Hiura was part of that though.

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2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Fair enough. I do believe having Hiura was part of that though.

I don't.  They could have traded or non-tendered him at the end of the season.  Hiura was a concern for 2019, not 2018.

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40 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

The Astros got rid of him when they got better options (Altuve, Correa, and Bregman). The Brewers got rid of him when they got (what they thought were) better options (Kiura, Moustakas, Schoop). He should have value to a team that does not have better options.

He is up to 2.5 WAR now (fWAR has him 2.8), well ahead of Mancini. He should end up around 3 WAR. That is building off 1.3 WAR in 209 AB's for the O's last year. That is a very solid player.

As far as the "careless and sloppy" rap, I really don't get where this is coming from. I feel like I must be watching a different player. I see a guy who brings the speed game, plays hard, and always has a positive attitude despite playing on a terrible team. I have never seen him with his head down. With 7 CS, he has an 80% success rate, above the break-even point. Yes, he is prone to errors and is more of a SS than a 2B, and his OBP is lower than you would want for his profile. Still a good player.

It probably speaks volumes that the Brewers viewed Schoop as a better option. It's not like he lit the world on fire last year. I also feel like the Brewer's were trying to trade Villar for like three years straight so it would predate even Moustakas. I'm not sure what he did, but he most definitely pissed in someone important's cheerios when he was in Milwaukee. 

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1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

The Astros got rid of him when they got better options (Altuve, Correa, and Bregman). The Brewers got rid of him when they got (what they thought were) better options (Kiura, Moustakas, Schoop). He should have value to a team that does not have better options.

He is up to 2.5 WAR now (fWAR has him 2.8), well ahead of Mancini. He should end up around 3 WAR. That is building off 1.3 WAR in 209 AB's for the O's last year. That is a very solid player.

As far as the "careless and sloppy" rap, I really don't get where this is coming from. I feel like I must be watching a different player. I see a guy who brings the speed game, plays hard, and always has a positive attitude despite playing on a terrible team. I have never seen him with his head down. With 7 CS, he has an 80% success rate, above the break-even point. Yes, he is prone to errors and is more of a SS than a 2B, and his OBP is lower than you would want for his profile. Still a good player.

I think some of Villard's mistakes on the bases have come from his aggressiveness, and some have been just dumb baseball (killing a rally by running into Devers as he attempted to field a ground ball, for instance).

Villard is a good player, one of the most productive on the team, and at 28 (this year) he should be in his prime. If the Orioles don't tender or sign him, it's a virtual certainty that he'll be replaced by someone not as productive (though maybe better defensively) at a cost somewhere around the MLB minimum salary of $550,000 plus the annual increase. So the question is whether it's worth an additional $3 million, or $4 million, or whatever it would take to sign Villard for 2020, to get his added value at bat and on the bases.

The Elias Plan, as I understand it, says that the answer is no. Unless a player looks like a guy who will be part of the next contending team -- whenever that is now targeted to be -- the goal is to cut payroll. Since it doesn't look like Villard will be around that long and there are doubts as to whether he'd be a desirable guy to have on a team built to contend, there's no reason to add payroll in order to get his help in winning a few games over the next year or two. Maybe he'd be worth it at $1.5 million or so, but signing him that cheap seems awfully unlikely. That's what the Plan (again, as I understand it) calls for.

You can question, as I have on this board, whether it makes sense for the Orioles to spend a little more money on the 2020 MLB payroll in an attempt to put a team on the field next season that wins a few more games than the 2018 and 2019 embarrassments. Because Villar offers some excitement and would bring a little continuity to a high-turnover team, I think Villar at $3-$5 million would probably be a good place to spend that money, though I'd want to see what else is out there for IF help. 

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So Villar has gotten his AVG up to .274 with a .350 OBP. That is really starting to get respectable for a guy hitting mostly lead off. He has and 893 OPS and 49/133 XBH/hits. And 27/35 steals.

Plus he should finish with his most HR (19) , and statistically his career best season.

Id be happy to see us keep him. I’ve mentioned a 2-3 year deal at 5 million or so.

mayb 5 mil, 5.5 million, and 6 million. 

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If Villar keeps up this pace, I might be forced to eat crow and draft him on my fantasy team next season. Of course the team will be named "Get Outta My Dreams, Get Into My Villar". 

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