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I really want to keep Villar

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5 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

 

Not the best comparison. DJ was/is an incredible defender. Villar is below average. Also, it's hard not to look at this season as a bit of an outlier because Villar has largely been a 1.0ish WAR guy for the bulk of his career. To me, this feels a lot like Andrew Cashner going into free agency coming off his 3.40 era 2017 season. The only team that believed in his ability to duplicate that success was the Orioles. I'm curious to see if the league buys into Villar's season. My gut tells me they won't. 

Yeah but, this isn't his walk year. So not quite apples to apples compared to Cashner. 

Edited by Bubble Buddy

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1 minute ago, wildbillhiccup said:

 

Not the best comparison. DJ was/is an incredible defender. Villar is below average. Also, it's hard not to look at this season as a bit of an outlier because Villar has largely been a 1.0ish WAR guy for the bulk of his career. To me, this feels a lot like Andrew Cashner going into free agency coming off his 3.40 era 2017 season. The only team that believed in his ability to duplicate that success was the Orioles. I'm curious to see if the league buys into Villar's season. My gut tells me they won't. 

I wouldn’t value Villar based solely on his 2019 season, but I don’t see how he’s been a 1.0ish WAR guy for the bulk of his career.    In the last four years he’s been at 3.9, 0.1,  2.7 and 3.4 (with a month to play). If you’re looking for an outlier season in there, this year’s not it!   That said, Villar is certainly not as good as LeMahieu.    He’s also not a free agent this offseason, so I’m not sure what we’re really talking about here.    I imagine if he was a free agent this offseason, he’d command somewhere between 2/$16 mm and 3/$30 mm.

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8 hours ago, LA2 said:

CoC's comparison of Villar to the signings of Hardy and Roberts is far-fetched (especially if one factors in age, as you have pointed out), but I don't quite understand your reasoning here.

1. Yes, Hardy had had some injuries before coming to Baltimore, but he recovered and put in several stellar seasons. Resigning him once new injuries and age clearly made it difficult for him to play well was a foolish decision, as CoC implied. Don't quite understand why you think a history of pre-Oriole injuries can serve as an alibi.

2. Where did you got the fascinating idea that B-Rob intentionally gave himself a concussion?

Well ...When you intentionally break a bat over your own head, a concussion should be the least of what you expect to happen!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Quote

 

 

 
Oct 21, 2014 - Brian Roberts | Professional Baseball Player After a strikeout in a 2010 game, Roberts banged his bat against his helmet and sustained his first concussion. .

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&channel=cus&q=brian+roberts+concussion

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3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I wouldn’t value Villar based solely on his 2019 season, but I don’t see how he’s been a 1.0ish WAR guy for the bulk of his career.    In the last four years he’s been at 3.9, 0.1,  2.7 and 3.4 (with a month to play). If you’re looking for an outlier season in there, this year’s not it!   That said, Villar is certainly not as good as LeMahieu.    He’s also not a free agent this offseason, so I’m not sure what we’re really talking about here.    I imagine if he was a free agent this offseason, he’d command somewhere between 2/$16 mm and 3/$30 mm.

What am I missing here? i see two years with a 3+ WAR and 5 years of a WAR of .5, .7, .8, .2 and .9/1.4. I've said this before, but he appears to be more of an accumulator than a good player. We've also been down this road before with Villar. He basically had the same season in 2016 and crapped the bed the next season. And the Brewers weren't even confident enough in his ability to give him everyday ABs that next season. That speaks volumes (to me). 

 

Year Age Tm Lg G PA Rbat Rbaser Rdp Rfield Rpos RAA WAA Rrep RAR WAR waaWL% 162WL% oWAR dWAR oRAR Salary Pos Awards
2013 22 HOU AL 58 241 -6 0 0 -5 3 -8 -0.8 9 1 0.0 .485 .495 0.5 -0.1 6   6  
2014 23 HOU AL 87 289 -11 3 1 -2 4 -5 -0.5 10 5 0.5 .493 .496 0.7 0.3 7 $503,800 6/D  
2015 24 HOU AL 53 128 2 0 0 1 1 4 0.4 5 8 0.9 .508 .502 0.8 0.2 7   65/7D48  
2016 25 MIL NL 156 679 12 -1 1 0 7 20 1.8 21 41 3.9 .513 .512 3.9 0.7 41 $512,900 654  
2017 26 MIL NL 122 436 -14 -1 2 -1 3 -12 -1.3 14 2 0.1 .490 .493 0.2 0.1 3 $554,500 4/8D  
2018 27 MIL NL 87 279 -2 2 -1 5 2 5 0.5 9 15 1.4 .507 .504 0.9 0.7 9 $2,550,000 4  
2018 27 BAL AL 54 236 1 3 0 -1 2 4 0.5 8 13 1.3 .508 .503 1.4 0.2 14   46  
2019 28 BAL AL 133 578 9 4 2 -9 6 13 1.4 20 33 3.4 .509 .508 4.2 -0.1 42 $4,825,000 *4

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3 hours ago, Bubble Buddy said:

Yeah but, this isn't his walk year. So not quite apples to apples compared to Cashner. 

Good point. I was just riffing off the other poster who compared him to LeMahieu (who was in his walk year). 

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34 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

What am I missing here? i see two years with a 3+ WAR and 5 years of a WAR of .5, .7, .8, .2 and .9/1.4. I've said this before, but he appears to be more of an accumulator than a good player. We've also been down this road before with Villar. He basically had the same season in 2016 and crapped the bed the next season. And the Brewers weren't even confident enough in his ability to give him everyday ABs that next season. That speaks volumes (to me). 

 

Year Age Tm Lg G PA Rbat Rbaser Rdp Rfield Rpos RAA WAA Rrep RAR WAR waaWL% 162WL% oWAR dWAR oRAR Salary Pos Awards
2013 22 HOU AL 58 241 -6 0 0 -5 3 -8 -0.8 9 1 0.0 .485 .495 0.5 -0.1 6   6  
2014 23 HOU AL 87 289 -11 3 1 -2 4 -5 -0.5 10 5 0.5 .493 .496 0.7 0.3 7 $503,800 6/D  
2015 24 HOU AL 53 128 2 0 0 1 1 4 0.4 5 8 0.9 .508 .502 0.8 0.2 7   65/7D48  
2016 25 MIL NL 156 679 12 -1 1 0 7 20 1.8 21 41 3.9 .513 .512 3.9 0.7 41 $512,900 654  
2017 26 MIL NL 122 436 -14 -1 2 -1 3 -12 -1.3 14 2 0.1 .490 .493 0.2 0.1 3 $554,500 4/8D  
2018 27 MIL NL 87 279 -2 2 -1 5 2 5 0.5 9 15 1.4 .507 .504 0.9 0.7 9 $2,550,000 4  
2018 27 BAL AL 54 236 1 3 0 -1 2 4 0.5 8 13 1.3 .508 .503 1.4 0.2 14   46  
2019 28 BAL AL 133 578 9 4 2 -9 6 13 1.4 20 33 3.4 .509 .508 4.2 -0.1 42 $4,825,000 *4

Frobby is correct. What you're missing is that you're looking at his oWAR and not his WAR. What you're also missing is his 2018 stats are split into two separate lines which you aren't adding together to make one number I guess because typing .9/1.4 makes your argument look better than putting 2.3, but again that's his oWAR; he had a 2.7 WAR for that season. So, his WAR over the last four seasons are 3.9, 0.1, 2.7 and 3.4 so far this season. If you didn't have such an axe to grind with Villar, you wouldn't be in such a rush to find some numbers to support your argument even if they're the wrong numbers or you have to misrepresent those numbers.

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4 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

What am I missing here? i see two years with a 3+ WAR and 5 years of a WAR of .5, .7, .8, .2 and .9/1.4. I've said this before, but he appears to be more of an accumulator than a good player. We've also been down this road before with Villar. He basically had the same season in 2016 and crapped the bed the next season. And the Brewers weren't even confident enough in his ability to give him everyday ABs that next season. That speaks volumes (to me). 

 

Year Age Tm Lg G PA Rbat Rbaser Rdp Rfield Rpos RAA WAA Rrep RAR WAR waaWL% 162WL% oWAR dWAR oRAR Salary Pos Awards
2013 22 HOU AL 58 241 -6 0 0 -5 3 -8 -0.8 9 1 0.0 .485 .495 0.5 -0.1 6   6  
2014 23 HOU AL 87 289 -11 3 1 -2 4 -5 -0.5 10 5 0.5 .493 .496 0.7 0.3 7 $503,800 6/D  
2015 24 HOU AL 53 128 2 0 0 1 1 4 0.4 5 8 0.9 .508 .502 0.8 0.2 7   65/7D48  
2016 25 MIL NL 156 679 12 -1 1 0 7 20 1.8 21 41 3.9 .513 .512 3.9 0.7 41 $512,900 654  
2017 26 MIL NL 122 436 -14 -1 2 -1 3 -12 -1.3 14 2 0.1 .490 .493 0.2 0.1 3 $554,500 4/8D  
2018 27 MIL NL 87 279 -2 2 -1 5 2 5 0.5 9 15 1.4 .507 .504 0.9 0.7 9 $2,550,000 4  
2018 27 BAL AL 54 236 1 3 0 -1 2 4 0.5 8 13 1.3 .508 .503 1.4 0.2 14   46  
2019 28 BAL AL 133 578 9 4 2 -9 6 13 1.4 20 33 3.4 .509 .508 4.2 -0.1 42 $4,825,000 *4

You clearly don’t like him as a player; that’s been evident to anyone who’s read your posts over this season.    That’s fine, and you’re entitled to your opinion.    But as to the WAR part of this discussion:

Age 22: 0.0 in 241 PA

Age 23: 0.5 in 289 PA

Age 24: 0.9 in 128 PA

Age 25: 3.6 in 679 PA

Age 26: 0.1 in 436 PA

Age 27: 2.7 in 515 PA

Age 28: 3.4 in 578 PA (with a month left)

I do not put as much weight on his age 22-24 seasons when he was still getting his feet wet and was a part time player.    But even if I did, simple math says that 11.2 WAR divided by 7 seasons equals 1.6 WAR, not 1.0ish.  1.6 would be understating his probable value over the next few years, given any reasonable weighting of his past and current results.   

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7 minutes ago, Sessh said:

Frobby is correct. What you're missing is that you're looking at his oWAR and not his WAR. What you're also missing is his 2018 stats are split into two separate lines which you aren't adding together to make one number I guess because typing .9/1.4 makes your argument look better than putting 2.3, but again that's his oWAR; he had a 2.7 WAR for that season. So, his WAR over the last four seasons are 3.9, 0.1, 2.7 and 3.4 so far this season. If you didn't have such an axe to grind with Villar, you wouldn't be in such a rush to find some numbers to support your argument even if they're the wrong numbers or you have to misrepresent those numbers.

The defensive stats that fuel our arguments are not solid.

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2 hours ago, weams said:

The defensive stats that fuel our arguments are not solid.

So I guess you’re going to bring up this point every time WAR is mentioned in a post?    It is clear the defensive component is not as reliable as the offensive one, but I’d still say it’s better than nothing.  

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13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So I guess you’re going to bring up this point every time WAR is mentioned in a post?    It is clear the defensive component is not as reliable as the offensive one, but I’d still say it’s better than nothing.  

I think that until such time as there is a revision, that gross statement using different brands of WAR need to be qualified as less than definitive discussion enders. That's all. It will be better soon. They'll get real stats to quantify.  

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2 hours ago, weams said:

I think that until such time as there is a revision, that gross statement using different brands of WAR need to be qualified as less than definitive discussion enders. That's all. It will be better soon. They'll get real stats to quantify.  

I’m good with that.   I know it will make Moose happy.    

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WAR or not, if you're going to name a Most Valuable Oriole at this point in the season it's either going to be John Means or Jonathan Villar.

 

Three more stolen bases tonight including one of home - bringing his total to 32 and 80% success.

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11 hours ago, weams said:

I think that until such time as there is a revision, that gross statement using different brands of WAR need to be qualified as less than definitive discussion enders. That's all. It will be better soon. They'll get real stats to quantify.  

So what about Villar's flawed defensive metrics makes his value as implied by WAR off?  Is he dramatically better or worse than he appears by that view?  Or is he a typical case where the defensive metrics just have a somewhat higher margin of error than the others and we're not quite sure, but it's not a game changer unless we're really missing something?

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1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

So what about Villar's flawed defensive metrics makes his value as implied by WAR off?  Is he dramatically better or worse than he appears by that view?  Or is he a typical case where the defensive metrics just have a somewhat higher margin of error than the others and we're not quite sure, but it's not a game changer unless we're really missing something?

See, we don't know what we don't know.  We may be missing something or Derek Jeter may have been the Wizard instead of the Captain.  Right now it is Savage. 

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