I find it interesting that Heston Kjerstad is ranked that highly.
I don't think he was that well regarded before the draft and he certainly didn't do anything after the draft. Just a reaction to being drafted 1-2?
You do make several points about him not playing a lot of games because of injuries, that he didn't play a full season in 2020, and that because of that there are not any good comps. But you seem to ignore all that in reaching your conclusion. I really don't know how you reached the conclusion that him being injury prone which has led to him playing less supports his case for a higher arbitration award. I think the O's have a pretty strong case when they are offering to more than triple his salary after he only played 37 games in 2020.
As to the latter sentence, you just never know. The O’s apparently weren’t holding their breath on Zach Davies, but he overcame the challenges of having below average FB velocity and almost every team in the majors could use a guy like him in their rotation. The odds that Wells turns out to be another Davies are probably only 20% or so, but they’re not negligible. The guy has had success at every MiL stop, and that’s not something that should be ignored.
Saying that, I doubt the O’s will be gaming his service time.