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Trying to Salvage a Split (vs. BLUE JAYS, 8/04)
By
OFFNY, in Game Threads
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I said in another comment somewhere, that Mike doesn’t care whether we win 45 or 50 games, but he certainly does care if we win 70. There was a little bit of hyperbole in that comment, but I just wonder if maybe it’s really accurate. The equivalent of 70 wins would be ~26, Would probably leave us out of any playoff consideration, but would mess up our draft order for next year, conceivably leaving us out of the single digit draft picks. At the moment, I think the last thing that Elias wants is on field success. I think he would much rather we win 15 games than 25. So I think that if we start to do well he’s going to trade off our successful players, less with a view to maximizing their trade value than to getting them off the team because they’re playing too well. There are several players on this team who could conceivably participate in our next contender, but nobody who’s a definite, so he wouldn’t be damaging the future by, for instance, trading Alberto or Ruiz, and he wouldn’t care as much about the return. My question for the crowd is whether you think this is accurate, or if he would actually enjoy a genuine and unexpected successful won-loss record, Even if it meant a less desirable first round pick next year? -
o Yes ........ so let's extrapolate, and assert that 5 sweeps in like winning 15 games, and that 3 sweeps (going the other way) is like losing 9 games. So the Orioles are essentially 15-9 overall, 40% into this pandemic-shortened season ........ fun with numbers, albeit completely divorced from reality. o
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By Aristotelian · Posted
Elias has said he wants to establish something like the Tampa model where you are playing competitive baseball while also maintaining a constant influx of new talent. I don't think you have to pick #1 to do that. In fact he should relish the thought of finding value with lower picks. -
o Yep. I was just trying to get the thread going for the bullpen at-large, not necessarily asserting that the statistic that I cited was anything to draw much conclusion from. o
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