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Greg Pappas

Is Our Future Center Fielder Already In Our System?

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45 minutes ago, weams said:

I think so. Though a HS probably has a 5-10% of making it. 

Generally speaking, HS picks are riskier but often have higher reward.    Obviously, it depends on where in the draft we’re talking about.    A HS pick in the first round has much better than a 10-15% chance of playing in the majors.   

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13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Generally speaking, HS picks are riskier but often have higher reward.    Obviously, it depends on where in the draft we’re talking about.    A HS pick in the first round has much better than a 10-15% chance of playing in the majors.   

I think we were talking third or fourth round at this point. 

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27 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Short answer: No.

Long answer: No.

Hays is definitely in the picture for CF next year. Longterm? Who knows.

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1 hour ago, weams said:

I think we were talking third or fourth round at this point. 

Cases in point for high risk, high reward high schoolers: Eddie Murray, 3rd round 1973, Zack Britton, 3rd round 2006.

In fact, our top 5 3rd round picks by WAR, and 8 of our top 10, were high schoolers.  We’ve picked a high schooler 33 times in that spot, and 12 of them (36%) made the majors.    We’ve picked a college guy 21 times and 8 made the majors (38%), but the top college producer was Chris Ray (3.1 rWAR, 6th on the list of O’s third rounders).

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1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Cases in point for high risk, high reward high schoolers: Eddie Murray, 3rd round 1973, Zack Britton, 3rd round 2006.

In fact, our top 5 3rd round picks by WAR, and 8 of our top 10, were high schoolers.  We’ve picked a high schooler 33 times in that spot, and 12 of them (36%) made the majors.    We’ve picked a college guy 21 times and 8 made the majors (38%), but the top college producer was Chris Ray (3.1 rWAR, 6th on the list of O’s third rounders).

Good research as always. 

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16 minutes ago, weams said:

Good research as always. 

Thanks.    The fourth round has been vastly weaker than the third round for us: 7/33 high schoolers made the majors, topped by Brad Bergesen (2.9 rWAR); 5/20 college guys made it, topped by Christian Walker (1.5 rWAR with a bullet).   But we still have some prospective major leaguers in the pipeline who were drafted 4th: Ryan McKenna, Brenan Hanifee, Drew Rom and this year Joey Ortiz.    The first three were all high schoolers and decent prospects.   

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7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Thanks.    The fourth round has been vastly weaker than the third round for us: 7/33 high schoolers made the majors, topped by Brad Bergesen (2.9 rWAR); 5/20 college guys made it, topped by Christian Walker (1.5 rWAR with a bullet).   But we still have some prospective major leaguers in the pipeline who were drafted 4th: Ryan McKenna, Brenan Hanifee, Drew Rom and this year Joey Ortiz.    The first three were all high schoolers and decent prospects.   

With a bullet. 

Last 7 days 5 5 22 17 5 6 1 0 0 1 0 0 5 5 .353 .500 .412 .912 7 1 0 0 0 1 0 .500 129 139

 

Last 14 days 9 9 39 28 7 9 1 0 1 2 0 0 9 10 .321 .513 .464 .977 13 1 2 0 0 1 0 .471 144 159

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I want Johnny Rizer.  Just because I like saying his name.  Johnny Rizer.  He can use the Johnny Quest theme song.  Johnny Rizer.  

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3 hours ago, jabba72 said:

Outside of Hays, I dont see anyone in the minors who can or will play CF everyday for the Orioles, and with Hays slumping with the bat, might not be ready until mid May 2020. Prado, Bellony and Acevedo in the DSL are the next likeliest IMO, unless McKenna really develops next year. 

3 people mentioning Prado as a possibility.  I'm impressed.  He's an Elias guy - that can't hurt.    

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5 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

IMHO, the state of CF is unfortunate at this time. The O's trot out players like Santander and Wilkerson, mainly because we are pretty much at a loss for better options. Santander looks solid as a corner OF starter, but doesn't seem like he has the range to play CF full-time. I don't see a guy in our system that has me feeling any level of confidence that he'll come up and become our future CF. 

  • Cedric Mullins failed miserably this season, played poorly in AAA and after a demotion to AA has regained some momentum, yet probably isn't as well thought of as he once was. 
  • Austin Hays has a .741 OPS at AAA, but with his talent, he may be the one guy I hold out hope for. Whether or not he can play a strong CF remains to be seen. I seem to recall scouting reports that noted he may be better as a COF than CF. Maybe I'm mis-remembering that.
  • Yusniel Diaz isn't considered a CF, though he may be able to give us some innings there if needed.
  • Ryan McKenna's prospect light has dimmed this season.  He's struggling at AA (.641 OPS).
  • Kyle Stowers, taken 71st overall in the 2019 Draft (in the Competitive Balance Round B--between rounds 2 & 3) out of Stanford, may yet develop into an option. He has played both RF (15 games) and CF (8 games) for Aberdeen.
  • Zach Watson was our 3rd round pick this year out of LSU and is primarily a CF.  He's currently in Delmarva and while his glove seems good enough for CF, his progression at the plate will be vital to whether he'll become an option some day. 

Am I missing someone? Thoughts?

McKenna's OPS is not .641. It is .686 this year which is actually higher than league average, .684 overall at AA.

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4 hours ago, weams said:

I think so. Though a HS probably has a 5-10% of making it. 

But what probability would you give each to make a significant impact on the major league level?

2nd and 3rd round HS draft picks (slot value, or close to it) vs college juniors.

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1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

But what probability would you give each to make a significant impact on the major league level?

2nd and 3rd round HS draft picks (slot value, or close to it) vs college juniors.

I do not have that data ability. 

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