Santander will play 2021 at 26 year old. Still improving. He has an 890 OPS in 2020. He will be surrounded with good hitters with Mancini and Mountcastle. I think he should hit 30 homers, 100 RBI and a 900 OPS in 550 at bats.
Hays will play 2021 at 25. Still improving. 790 OPS in 2021. 420 at bats.
I think to analyze this correctly you have to have a good idea of the excess value of draft picks. In other words, let’s say a pick at a certain point in the draft on average produces $20 mm in value, and it will cost $12 mm to sign that pick. That is a move that makes sense.
Here is a good article on the topic. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-on-how-to-value-draft-picks/
Would you spend 12M for a DL Hall or Ryan Mountcastle?
Tying the value of the pick to the draft allotment tied to the pick is pretty dubious. If teams valued them so little why is having a qualifying offer such a detriment for free agents?
The Braves spent roughly 3M for the #76 pick ( $838,900 slot allotment).
The first pick in the draft cost 8m. The 15th pick cost about 3.3m. Spending 12m on that pick is something the Dodgers or Yankee might do. But not a responible mid market team. There are teams that have large markets and more money as a result and the way to beat them in not trying to outspend them.
Elias is doing the right thing to beat the big market teams. Better analytics, player development, sensible trades for prospects, international signings are all things that will get the O's there.
Anthony Santander has a career slash line of .252/.292/.467. He was selected in the Rule 5 draft after playing no higher than A+ and struggled during his Rule 5 period split between 2017-18 due to injuries. He has fared much better since getting called up in 2019, and in 2020 slashed .261/.315/.575. His season ended prematurely with an oblique injury.
Austin Hays has a career slash line of .272/.320/.424, comprised of a shaky 2017 debut after being promoted from AA, a strong 2019 performance after a less-inspiring minor league season, and then a .279/.328/.393 performance in a somewhat larger sample this year. He’s had trouble staying healthy the last three seasons, missing time this year with a fractured rib.
So what do we get out of these two next year, either in terms of availability or performance?
I will leave the availability issue to the baseball gods. Neither player has a single, chronic injury, and I don’t know that they have a greater chance of future injury than any other player. Hays might, due to his aggressive style of play in the outfield. But, I’m not going to speculate on that.
Hays, I think, has considerably more power than he showed in 2020. I think his BA and OBP from 2020 (.279/.328) are about what I expect from him, but add 30-50 points of SLG. So that would put his OPS in the .755-.780 range in 2021. For what it’s worth, Steamer projects him at .255/.303/.442. I think those are low on BA/OBP and maybe aggressive on ISO.
Santander is sort of the opposite - his ISO of .314 last year does not seem sustainable. Again I think his BA and OBP from last season are pretty realistic. Put me down for .775-.800 for him, with a little lower BA/OBP than Hays but a bit more power. Steamer has him at .262/.312/.479, which looks about right to me.
if we could get that rate of production and 900+ PA from them, I’d be very happy.