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Frobby

Sig Mejdal indicts the public advanced defensive metrics (except Statcast)

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I read this earlier and forgot to post. Very good story. 

Raises a ton of questions about the defensive metrics. 

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I really hope Sig gets out in front of this pending revolution in defensive analysis.  His comments make sense and Lord knows Orioles pitching could use all the help it can get.

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If there’s a complaint about how positioning affects defensive evaluation, that wouldn’t apply to catching, which would have a unique system of measurement?

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Sounds like to me that Sig is more worried about getting players in the correct position than them having “makeup” ability to make plays on outcomes that were low projected probabilities. 

Like if the ball happens to end up in that location and we don’t have a player there, oh well. Tip your hat and onto the next one. 

The good thing is the FO feels like they can manufacture parts of the game, because we certainly can’t afford a team of all stars. 

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20 hours ago, Frobby said:

weams will eat this up, and so will Tony.    https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/08/using-the-eye-test-vs-defensive-metrics-for-richie-martin.html

Basically Sig says the advanced metrics don’t account for positioning and in the world of shifting aren’t very useful.   He exempts Statcast from that critique.  

He's my brother. And he's right. 

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20 hours ago, Frobby said:

weams will eat this up, and so will Tony.    https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/08/using-the-eye-test-vs-defensive-metrics-for-richie-martin.html

Basically Sig says the advanced metrics don’t account for positioning and in the world of shifting aren’t very useful.   He exempts Statcast from that critique.  

Quote

“The eye test is great, though,” Mejdal said. “It’s easy to see arm strength and it’s easy to see athleticism, but sometimes what you don’t pick up on the eye test is initial reaction and ability to accelerate.”

Quote

“I guess I would say the public available defensive data relies on all things being equal and those things are that the shortstops are positioned similarly,” Mejdal said, “but it can’t distinguish between a shortstop who got to the ball because of his skills or one that was positioned there for other reasons. And in the past, that wasn’t a giant deal, but now with the different starting points of the shortstops, it is a big deal and it’s a challenge to the models and undoubtedly it’s creating a lot of noise.

“For the teams that shift a lot or shift a little, it’s not only creating noise, it’s creating a large bias. And so the accuracy of those have gone down as shifting has gone up and that’s all the general public has.

“The Statcast data, it’s not a problem. The calculus is much different and when you have that Statcast data you don’t rely whatsoever on UZRs.”

 

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18 hours ago, eddie83 said:

I read this earlier and forgot to post. Very good story. 

Raises a ton of questions about the defensive metrics. 

Current defensive metrics are hooey. 

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Player evaluation when made with stats weighted with false defense data components are worthless. 

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52 minutes ago, weams said:

Current defensive metrics are hooey. 

You keep saying this, and that implies that current defensive metrics consistently say ridiculous things.  They don't.  There are some outliers, but by and large they say the players you think are good are good, and the ones you think are bad are bad.  When you dismiss all defensive metrics I think you should qualify that with something like "they're hooey because like 3% of the time I kind of disagree with their conclusions."  And also that subjective observations are at least as bad, and probably much worse most of the time.

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16 hours ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Statcast is the new public standard IMO, with their route efficiency and catch difficulty metrics.

I agree. Now incorporate this into the metrics broadly used to compare player's relative value. 

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15 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You keep saying this, and that implies that current defensive metrics consistently say ridiculous things... that subjective observations are at least as bad, and probably much worse most of the time.

I do agree. Most visual observation by fans and fan-like paided agents is not of value. Though it can be exciting!

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I like Sig, but maybe slow down on the smartest guy in the room talk until we aren’t the laughing stock of baseball. Heck, I could’ve drafted a bunch of 23 y o NCAA pitchers and stuck them in the GCL to dominate. 

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