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Frobby

SI ranks the O’s the 4th most hopeless team

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Baltimore Orioles

Record: 41-86, 41.5 GB in AL East

Average Farm System Rating: 11

Best MLB Player: SP John Means (3.1 WAR)

Soonest Return to October: 2022

Why Are They Hopeless? 

The Orioles are breathtakingly bad for the second straight year; the only real question here is whether they can become one of the only clubs in baseball history to play back-to-back seasons under .300. (It’s a feat previously accomplished only by the 1915-16 Athletics and 1941-42 Phillies.) Baltimore has a miserable roster with a middling farm system, and while there’s something to look forward to with its newly installed front office… real change could take a while.  

When Did Everything Go Wrong? 

It’s easy to forget just how recently Baltimore was good. The Orioles were in the wild-card game in 2016! They seemingly made a good-faith effort to win in 2018! (Remember those deals for Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner?) Recently, though, they’ve had to face the ramifications of several long-standing organizational problems—namely, an inability to develop pitching prospects and a lack of investment in international free agency—and after last year’s deadline fire sale, they’re in a tough spot.

One Reason For Hope

Adley Rutschman. The No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft has a real opportunity to become one of baseball’s best all-around catchers. (Sure, go ahead and insert the usual caveats that exist for any hyped catching prospect … but there are plenty of reasons to believe that the hype is for real here.) The 21-year-old is currently in Low A, with a good chance to show up in the big leagues by 2021. — E.B.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Typical SI article.   They don't get the big picture.   Hopeless this year but not in the future.

It says their soonest return to October is 2022. That sounds about right to me. Bad next year, .500 in 2021, contending in 2022.

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4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Typical SI article.   They don't get the big picture.   Hopeless this year but not in the future.

They wrote 2022 as a potential date with October games. I don't think that's overly pessimistic. The 4th thing is harsh, but the write up is fair. 

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8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Typical SI article.   They don't get the big picture.   Hopeless this year but not in the future.

They get the big picture.   Nobody’s saying they’re hopeless forever.    But they still have a big hole to dig out of.    

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5 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

It says their soonest return to October is 2022. That sounds about right to me. Bad next year, .500 in 2021, contending in 2022.

They also call the farm system middling but BA calls it #8.

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4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

They also call the farm system middling but BA calls it #8.

And others have ranked it 14.    The article says their average ranking is 11.    That’s in the middle third which is fairly called middling.    Even if you prefer the BA ranking, they’re in the second quartile, which is good not great.    Combine that with a 50ish win big league team and that still leaves them with a long way to go and needing a lot of things to go right.   

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4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

And others have ranked it 14.    The article says their average ranking is 11.    That’s in the middle third which is fairly called middling.    Even if you prefer the BA ranking, they’re in the second quartile, which is good not great.    Combine that with a 50ish win big league team and that still leaves them with a long way to go and needing a lot of things to go right.   

Right

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7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

And others have ranked it 14.    The article says their average ranking is 11.    That’s in the middle third which is fairly called middling.    Even if you prefer the BA ranking, they’re in the second quartile, which is good not great.    Combine that with a 50ish win big league team and that still leaves them with a long way to go and needing a lot of things to go right.   

Now we are into quartiles.   I missed that note.  In baseball talk the O's farm system  is in the top 10 according to BA which is one of the better ranking services.

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6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Now we are into quartiles.   I missed that note.  In baseball talk the O's farm system  is in the top 10 according to BA which is one of the better ranking services.

Having now read the full article, SI took the average between BA (8) and Fangraphs (14).     Seems reasonable to me.    

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18 hours ago, Frobby said:

Baltimore Orioles

Record: 41-86, 41.5 GB in AL East

Average Farm System Rating: 11

Best MLB Player: SP John Means (3.1 WAR)

Soonest Return to October: 2022

Why Are They Hopeless? 

The Orioles are breathtakingly bad for the second straight year; the only real question here is whether they can become one of the only clubs in baseball history to play back-to-back seasons under .300. (It’s a feat previously accomplished only by the 1915-16 Athletics and 1941-42 Phillies.) Baltimore has a miserable roster with a middling farm system, and while there’s something to look forward to with its newly installed front office… real change could take a while.  

When Did Everything Go Wrong? 

It’s easy to forget just how recently Baltimore was good. The Orioles were in the wild-card game in 2016! They seemingly made a good-faith effort to win in 2018! (Remember those deals for Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner?) Recently, though, they’ve had to face the ramifications of several long-standing organizational problems—namely, an inability to develop pitching prospects and a lack of investment in international free agency—and after last year’s deadline fire sale, they’re in a tough spot.

One Reason For Hope

Adley Rutschman. The No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft has a real opportunity to become one of baseball’s best all-around catchers. (Sure, go ahead and insert the usual caveats that exist for any hyped catching prospect … but there are plenty of reasons to believe that the hype is for real here.) The 21-year-old is currently in Low A, with a good chance to show up in the big leagues by 2021. — E.B.

 

 

....

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