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Frobby

SI ranks the O’s the 4th most hopeless team

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23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Having now read the full article, SI took the average between BA (8) and Fangraphs (14).     Seems reasonable to me.    

Never been a big fan of Fangraphs.   Didn't like their defensive metrics for years and now Mejdal is telling us they were never that actuate.

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4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Never been a big fan of Fangraphs.   Didn't like their defensive metrics for years and now Mejdal is telling us they were never that actuate.

Neither are BB-ref’s.    So I guess I’ll stop using those two sites.    🙄

In any event, advanced defensive metrics aren’t part of Fangraphs’ farm rankings, so it’s irrelevant.   The rankings are done by two guys who do the scouting for Fangraphs, one of whom is a former scout for the Orioles, Braves and other teams.    And their methodology for ranking them is much more systematic than BA’s.    I’m not saying I put more credence in their rankings than BA’s, just that I consider them a credible source and have no problem with SI’s methodology of taking the average of the two.    I’ll just add that the couple of other midseason rankings I’ve seen were not as high as BA’s and not as low as Fangraphs’.

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Regardless of the outlet, I can't see where they are wrong.

I'm not an expert, but I would take a wager that 2022 will not be their year for October baseball unless MLB drags regular season games out until then. 

I think they will have to trade some of the current younger MiL players in a few years to continue rebuilding. I hope my opinion is proven wrong and things go smoothly but I don't see it.

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23 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

Regardless of the outlet, I can't see where they are wrong.

I'm not an expert, but I would take a wager that 2022 will not be their year for October baseball unless MLB drags regular season games out until then. 

I think they will have to trade some of the current younger MiL players in a few years to continue rebuilding. I hope my opinion is proven wrong and things go smoothly but I don't see it.

I agree it will be tough to reach the postseason by then.    I think we’ll have a better idea at the end of next season how far away we really are.    

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6 hours ago, Frobby said:

And others have ranked it 14.    The article says their average ranking is 11.    That’s in the middle third which is fairly called middling.    Even if you prefer the BA ranking, they’re in the second quartile, which is good not great.    Combine that with a 50ish win big league team and that still leaves them with a long way to go and needing a lot of things to go right.   

You’re all sunshine and roses.

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6 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

Regardless of the outlet, I can't see where they are wrong.

I'm not an expert, but I would take a wager that 2022 will not be their year for October baseball unless MLB drags regular season games out until then. 

I think they will have to trade some of the current younger MiL players in a few years to continue rebuilding. I hope my opinion is proven wrong and things go smoothly but I don't see it.

I don't think the Os are a lock for 2022 post-season, but I think folks simply look mostly at the minor league system and can't figure out a playoff team from those parts.  Our payroll will have reset payroll at a very low base after 2021 and there is plenty of free agent opportunity to ramp up payroll to get several strong plus pitchers or a strong plus pitcher and a big time hitter.  I think that between Hall, Lowther, Akin, Baumann, Wells, Kremer and Zimmerman plus Means would have we could have a 2, 4, and 5 for the starting rotation at cheap prices and GrayRod on the verge of the majors.  Trade for or sign a top pitcher and suddenly a large portion of the SP looks league average or better.

On the hitting side, I also think we have perhaps several quality cheap players in AR, Mountcastle, Hays, Diaz plus we shall see how Stewart, Hall might complement Mancini, Santander and others.  

I think the core of a competitive team could be in place at the major level if supplemented by some key free agent signings to make a plus offense.

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14 hours ago, wildcard said:

Never been a big fan of Fangraphs.   Didn't like their defensive metrics for years and now Mejdal is telling us they were never that actuate.

All sources of information are flawed.  That's why I rely solely on witchcraft.

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8 hours ago, hoosiers said:

I don't think the Os are a lock for 2022 post-season, but I think folks simply look mostly at the minor league system and can't figure out a playoff team from those parts. 

Even a team with ridiculous payroll constraints like the Rays doesn't develop all their talent.  They acquire a good bit from other sources.  No team just promotes their own minor leaguers and fully fills out the roster that way.  No matter how things go the 2022 Orioles roster will be at least half made up of players not currently in the organization.

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Isn't hopefulness about the future? What does our current record, roster, or stats have to do with hope? If they admit we have the #11 farm system we should certainly be at least top 20 in hopefulness for the future.

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55 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Even a team with ridiculous payroll constraints like the Rays doesn't develop all their talent.  They acquire a good bit from other sources.  No team just promotes their own minor leaguers and fully fills out the roster that way.  No matter how things go the 2022 Orioles roster will be at least half made up of players not currently in the organization.

I agree there will be roster turnover and trades and players picked up from other organizations which is also why, given our respectable farm system and payroll capacity in 2022 and the likelihood of having top five or better available spend in the draft and internationally in 2020, I have to question those who think we will not be competitive entering 2022. 

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9 hours ago, hoosiers said:

I don't think the Os are a lock for 2022 post-season, but I think folks simply look mostly at the minor league system and can't figure out a playoff team from those parts.  Our payroll will have reset payroll at a very low base after 2021 and there is plenty of free agent opportunity to ramp up payroll to get several strong plus pitchers or a strong plus pitcher and a big time hitter.  I think that between Hall, Lowther, Akin, Baumann, Wells, Kremer and Zimmerman plus Means would have we could have a 2, 4, and 5 for the starting rotation at cheap prices and GrayRod on the verge of the majors.  Trade for or sign a top pitcher and suddenly a large portion of the SP looks league average or better.

On the hitting side, I also think we have perhaps several quality cheap players in AR, Mountcastle, Hays, Diaz plus we shall see how Stewart, Hall might complement Mancini, Santander and others.  

I think the core of a competitive team could be in place at the major level if supplemented by some key free agent signings to make a plus offense.

I agree with this.    It really boils down to how well and how quickly our prospects are developing.    If they are making big strides, then investing in some significant free agents by 2022 will make sense.    If they are either floundering or just moving up more slowly than hoped, it may be premature to spend a lot in the FA market.    We’ll just have to see.    

I think we’ll know a lot more about the players you mentioned at this time next year.    I think 2020 will be fascinating from a developmental perspective.   

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15 hours ago, Frobby said:

Neither are BB-ref’s.    So I guess I’ll stop using those two sites.    🙄

In any event, advanced defensive metrics aren’t part of Fangraphs’ farm rankings, so it’s irrelevant.   The rankings are done by two guys who do the scouting for Fangraphs, one of whom is a former scout for the Orioles, Braves and other teams.    And their methodology for ranking them is much more systematic than BA’s.    I’m not saying I put more credence in their rankings than BA’s, just that I consider them a credible source and have no problem with SI’s methodology of taking the average of the two.    I’ll just add that the couple of other midseason rankings I’ve seen were not as high as BA’s and not as low as Fangraphs’.

I like both of those sites myself. I'd be very disappointed if today's "modern front office" only had the data supplied by this quasi crowd sourced projects. I suspect that the real data won't be in our hands to play with until it too is outmoded. 

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1 hour ago, hoosiers said:

I agree there will be roster turnover and trades and players picked up from other organizations which is also why, given our respectable farm system and payroll capacity in 2022 and the likelihood of having top five or better available spend in the draft and internationally in 2020, I have to question those who think we will not be competitive entering 2022. 

I think it's a possibility they'll be competitive in two years, but far from certain.

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