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Long Szymborski article on the O’s

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1 hour ago, backwardsk said:

Good points and comments.  A couple questions: What would the likely farm ranking be if we had a 5-10 pick instead of the number 1 overall?  And will the new regime get the credit with Santander, or will  Duquette?  I know that he battled injuries since the Rule V.

Why not give credit to Elias and Duquette?

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17 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Why not give credit to Elias and Duquette?

Fine with me.   One thing we know: the O’s wouldn’t have Santander but for Duquette.    One thing we don’t know: what role Elias’ staff has played in Santander’s development this year.    

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28 minutes ago, atomic said:

I think they acquired almost every pitcher that was waived in the American League.  Other than guys whose arms were gone.

The Rays dumped a promising young lefty who ended up with the Dodgers. At the time I wondered why we didn’t jump on him.

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8 minutes ago, Philip said:

The Rays dumped a promising young lefty who ended up with the Dodgers. At the time I wondered why we didn’t jump on him.

The Dodgers traded something for Kolarek, who is a 30-year old LOOGY, not really a guy we needed. Assuming you're talking about Sadler (a righty), the Dodgers also traded something for him after he was DFAed, so he never hit the waiver wire.

 

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8 minutes ago, TGO said:

The Dodgers traded something for Kolarek, who is a 30-year old LOOGY, not really a guy we needed. Assuming you're talking about Sadler (a righty), the Dodgers also traded something for him after he was DFAed, so he never hit the waiver wire.

 

Yes I meant Sadler. I thought he was a lefty. And I know that the Dodgers picked him up before he hit the waiver wire. I don’t remember what they traded for him, but I’m sure it wasn’t very much, and I’m curious as to why the Orioles were not willing to pay that price, because according to the article I read he was let go more because of a roster crunch than because of any flaws on his part

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This team is watchable whenever they get decent pitching. I hope they trade Mancini/Villar for the best good young pitching they can get. I would also like to see them sign a decent stop gap SS. Like maybe Brock Holt/Jose Iglesias .

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ZiPS' projections for Mancini for 2021-22 are very close to a cut and paste from 2020; BA, OBP, SLG vary no more than .003;  OPS+ either 113 or 114, WAR 1.9-2.0
 

11 hours ago, wildcard said:

Szymborski  promotes the idea of trading Villar and Mancini.  

No, when he mentions Mancini, he then downplays the idea.  That's hardly promoting it.

Quote

The team could theoretically trade Trey Mancini, who has largely rehabilitated his value from 2018, but I’m not sure they need to, considering that there are three additional seasons until he hits free agency, and that 1B/corner OF/DH types are simply not valued as highly in baseball as they once were, perhaps to the point that they’re currently undervalued (see the Edwin Encarnación trade).

ZiPS still isn’t buying into Mancini completely (he was really awful in 2018), but his projection is now back in the league-average player territory. League-average players have value, else we’d use WAA instead of WAR for everything! I’m slightly more optimistic than ZiPS is as Mancini’s plate discipline has been slowly but steadily improving on a yearly basis, and one of the elements of his big 2017 — a BABIP that wasn’t supported by his peripheral numbers — isn’t present in the system. Of course, ZiPS takes that stuff into consideration as well, but I think given my history, nobody would accuse me of wearing black-and-orange colored glasses! Mancini’s a regular ol’ good player and there’s nothing wrong with that, apart from his outfield play, where he’s likely a win worse every year. It’s yet another reason to release Davis; any time you’re playing Davis at first, you’re likely sticking Mancini in the outfield, where his lousiness has been proven beyond a reasonable doubt.

 

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8 minutes ago, Philip said:

Yes I meant Sadler. I thought he was a lefty. And I know that the Dodgers picked him up before he hit the waiver wire. I don’t remember what they traded for him, but I’m sure it wasn’t very much, and I’m curious as to why the Orioles were not willing to pay that price, because according to the article I read he was let go more because of a roster crunch than because of any flaws on his part

Nathan Witt, 17th round pick in '17. In Class A now. 

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34 minutes ago, Philip said:

Yes I meant Sadler. I thought he was a lefty. And I know that the Dodgers picked him up before he hit the waiver wire. I don’t remember what they traded for him, but I’m sure it wasn’t very much, and I’m curious as to why the Orioles were not willing to pay that price, because according to the article I read he was let go more because of a roster crunch than because of any flaws on his part

29 years old relief pitcher.  I am sure if he passed through waivers we would have made a claim. 

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7 hours ago, TonySoprano said:

ZiPS' projections for Mancini for 2021-22 are very close to a cut and paste from 2020; BA, OBP, SLG vary no more than .003;  OPS+ either 113 or 114, WAR 1.9-2.0
 

No, when he mentions Mancini, he then downplays the idea.  That's hardly promoting it.

 

So i think this allows me to guess I'm on your Ignore list haha. Cool!

  • Haha 2

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