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MurphDogg

Baysox 2019 Playoff Thread

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Made a left turn on this thread to focus on Bowie's playoff run.

 I will be at Bowie tomorrow for game 1.

Going out of town on Thursday night to Atlanta to see Suntrust Park on Friday (the first city where I will have been to three MLB parks!). If the Baysox make round 2 I will probably go to a game next week. I can't see making it to Salisbury, hope so OHers are able to make it.

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Tonight's pitching matchup for game 1 of the Baysox-Senators series is Michael Baumann vs. Kyle McGowin.

Baumann has had a very good run with the Baysox after a less impressive (statistically) half-season at Frederick.

In 13 games (11 starts) over 70 innings, Baumann has worked to a 2.44 ERA, and a 0.943 WHIP.

Kyle McGowin is not really a prospect at this point, as he will be 28 in November and has had several cups of coffee in the Majors that have not gone very well. McGowin started the season at AAA and was twice called up to the Majors where he struggled before being demoted to Harrisburg. He was later called up to the Majors for another two games directly from Harrisburg. The Nationals AAA affiliate is in Fresno and the PCL (already a hitter's league) has gone completely crazy with the Major League ball, so many teams are avoiding sending their better pitchers to PCL. Presumably that is why McGowin was demoted, as he had the best ERA on the Fresno team.

In his 6 starts with Harrisburg, McGowin has a 2.51 ERA over 32 and a third innings. He didn't allow a run over 3 of his last 4 starts of the season, so I am expecting a pitcher's duel.

Harrisburg only has two of the Nationals top 30 prospects in shortstop Luis Garcia, their consensus #2 prospect and a back end top-100 prospect overall, and Tres Berrera, a catcher who is their #18 prospect per MLB Pipeline.

Garcia is a 19-year-old glove-first shortstop who has a .617 OPS as one of the youngest players in the Eastern League.

Barrera is a glove-first catcher who has hit to a .249/.323/.381 clip in this, his age 24 season.

Harrisburg's offense is fairly anemic, as their only hitters with an OPS above .770 have all be promoted to either Fresno or the Majors. Their most successful remaining hitters are Nick Banks, Dante Bichette, Jr., and Ian Sagdal. They have hit to OPS' of .769, .750 and .740 respectively.

I think the Baysox are definitely favored in the series, as second half champs tend to be. The Baysox second half record was 10.5 games better than the Senators. But anything can happen in a five-game series, and Harrisburg does have homefield advantage, so the pressure is on the Baysox to win both games at home.

Looking forward to the series, it will likely all come down to pitching, and though the Baysox don't necessarily have the edge in this game, they should in the remaining games.

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I think the key to the series will be Bowie's strong bullpen. The pen has been lights out of late and features a number of good arms. Here are the ones who I think have a good shot to at least get a cup of coffee. 

Zach Muckenhirn - 93-96 lefty, solid slider, can go multiple innings, has allowed 1 earned run in his last 15 IP. 

Christian Alvarado - 93-96 righty, curve can flash above average but has been firm at times, solid command, no earned runs in his last 13.1 IP.

Steven Klimek - 93-94 righty, legit plus curveball, developing slider, has allowed 1 earned run in his last 19.1 IP.

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5 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I think the key to the series will be Bowie's strong bullpen. The pen has been lights out of late and features a number of good arms. Here are the ones who I think have a good shot to at least get a cup of coffee. 

Zach Muckenhirn - 93-96 lefty, solid slider, can go multiple innings, has allowed 1 earned run in his last 15 IP. 

Christian Alvarado - 93-96 righty, curve can flash above average but has been firm at times, solid command, no earned runs in his last 13.1 IP.

Steven Klimek - 93-94 righty, legit plus curveball, developing slider, has allowed 1 earned run in his last 19.1 IP.

I didn’t know their bullpen had been so hot recently.    But it seems to me the bats have been quiet, with the exception of that one game where they scored about 20 runs.    

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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I didn’t know their bullpen had been so hot recently.    But it seems to me the bats have been quiet, with the exception of that one game where they scored about 20 runs.    

Yeah, it's Diaz, Cumberland, and Feliz basically. With a little from Perez and maybe McKenna gets hot or McCoy gets on base. 

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In Alvarado's last 16 outings (20.2 ip),  1.74 ERA, 0.725 WHIP, 28 K (12.2 K/9), he has only allowed a run(s) in one of the games.

If you remove that game, 15 outings (19.2 ip), 0.00 ERA, 0.56 WHIP, 25 K (11.4 K/9)

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