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Luke-OH

Austin Hays called up

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11 hours ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Because if he is putting up good numbers next summer, it would already be the 2020 season...

My fault, meant this September. 

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5 hours ago, wildcard said:

I don't think it certain that Hays will hit in September and it he doesn't that puts his beginning the 2020 season with the O's in jeopardy IMO.  

Unless he bombs completely, like Mullins bomb, I don't think his September will have a huge affect on where he starts next year. I'm not saying Hays might not start the year back in AAA since he has less than 300 PAs there, but this promotion makes me think Elias is not going to be concerned over service time which means if he hits well next spring after a good AFL, I could see him making the opening day roster as the starting CF.

If not him, who else? Mullins? I think Elias will make him put numbers up in AAA before getting another look? Santander? I think Elias would prefer him in LF or RF. Wilkerson? I think Elias would like to see him in a utility role if he makes the team.

I see Hays making the team and Diaz starting the year in AAA playing RF everyday.

If Hays makes the team, I see Santander in RF, Stewart in LF, Mancini at 1B, and I'd like to see them give Nunez another chance at 3B but if not he'll be at DH.

I think Davis is cut, Trumbo will not be resigned and the questions will be how does the infield shape up?

Martin is the wild card here because he's slashed .280/.318/.354/.672 in 89 PAs since July 17th but Hyde has picked and chosen his starts. I believe he will go back to AAA next year which means Villar (who they will tender) will either have to play SS or they'll go out and perhaps sign a stop gap SS to play there moving Villar back to 2B and Alberto would start at 3B.

I could see them going out signing Jose Iglesias if he doesn't cost a ton and they could get him for a year or two.

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51 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Unless he bombs completely, like Mullins bomb, I don't think his September will have a huge affect on where he starts next year. I'm not saying Hays might not start the year back in AAA since he has less than 300 PAs there, but this promotion makes me think Elias is not going to be concerned over service time which means if he hits well next spring after a good AFL, I could see him making the opening day roster as the starting CF.

He's going to get 50, maybe 75 PAs this September.  I'm confident Elias isn't going to make decisions based on that little exposure unless something goes really, really, really wrong or right.

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5 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Unless he bombs completely, like Mullins bomb, I don't think his September will have a huge affect on where he starts next year. I'm not saying Hays might not start the year back in AAA since he has less than 300 PAs there, but this promotion makes me think Elias is not going to be concerned over service time which means if he hits well next spring after a good AFL, I could see him making the opening day roster as the starting CF.

If not him, who else? Mullins? I think Elias will make him put numbers up in AAA before getting another look? Santander? I think Elias would prefer him in LF or RF. Wilkerson? I think Elias would like to see him in a utility role if he makes the team.

I see Hays making the team and Diaz starting the year in AAA playing RF everyday.

If Hays makes the team, I see Santander in RF, Stewart in LF, Mancini at 1B, and I'd like to see them give Nunez another chance at 3B but if not he'll be at DH.

I think Davis is cut, Trumbo will not be resigned and the questions will be how does the infield shape up?

Martin is the wild card here because he's slashed .280/.318/.354/.672 in 89 PAs since July 17th but Hyde has picked and chosen his starts. I believe he will go back to AAA next year which means Villar (who they will tender) will either have to play SS or they'll go out and perhaps sign a stop gap SS to play there moving Villar back to 2B and Alberto would start at 3B.

I could see them going out signing Jose Iglesias if he doesn't cost a ton and they could get him for a year or two.

You packed a lot in this post.    Watch out for those that tell you its too early for this kind of talk.

I think if Hays hits in September he is the O's center field on OD 2020.   If he doesn't hit   I don't think that Elias puts that much weight on the AZ or ST at bats.  They are not against major leaguers.   If he doesn't hit in Sept then I think he is in Norfolk until he shows he can hit AAA pitching.  I agree service time has little or nothing to do with it. I think Elias keeps someone like Williams or equal in center until Hays proves he is ready. Elias will not rush Hays IMO.

We have to remember that the O's will not have the pitching to contend in the first half of 2020.  So no reason to rush prospects at any position or pitchers at that point.  

Santander in RF.  Mountcastle (who you did not mention) or Mancini in LF.  The other plays 1B.   

Davis is the 26th man.  I don't think they cut him because they are not contending and MLB is adding a 26th man.   He gets at bats in ST but if he doesn't hit (and it would be a surprise if he did)  then he is a bench player. Agree Trumbo is gone.  He and Cashner cut 20m off the payroll.   10m of that is probably used to sign arbitration guys.  I think the payroll will be in the low 70m area  and Elias will not spend on FA is my guess.

Nunez at DH. i know Hyde will play him a little at 1B/3B but I hope it is very little. He is terrible at both positions.

Agree Diaz to AAA.

I don't know whether anyone offers enough to get Villar.  But Villar will be available in trade if someone is willing to give Elias a player that will help the O's contend in 2022/23.   I don't know how well Martin hits the rest of September.

I don't see Elias spending on Iglesias.

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Santander in RF.  Mountcastle (who you did not mention) or Mancini in LF.  The other plays 1B.   

Davis is the 26th man.  I don't think they cut him because they are not contending and MLB is adding a 26th man.

I don't see Elias spending on Iglesias.

 

 

 

I didn't mention Mountcastle because Mountcastle will not make the team out of spring training because of the service time thing. As soon as they can get extra year he'll be playing a comobination or LF/1B/DH for the orioles the rest of the year.

I'd be very surprise if Davis is on the team next year. It's obvious to everyone that he can't play anymore and next year there will be no room for him with Santander/Hays/Mountcasle/Stewart/Mancini/Nunez all needing regular playing time. Elias also mentioned that his situation will be looked into this offseason which is the hope i have that he was told he can eat the contract after this year.

Maybe, maybe not on Iglesias, depends on the money. While I don't think the Orioles are going to be contenders next year, I do think next year is a transition year where we start to see actual prospects on the team and he'll want to have as good a defense as he can have up the middle. 

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29 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'd be very surprise if Davis is on the team next year. ..... Elias also mentioned that his situation will be looked into this offseason which is the hope i have that he was told he can eat the contract after this year.

 

Agree with all you said with the only exception being that Elias quote which I remember to be something to the effect of "giving Davis some things to work on this offseason". That's not an exact quote but I think it's close. 

To me, that means Davis gets one more spring training to show worth and maybe the time it takes to set the Mountcastle clock early in the year. 

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25 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I didn't mention Mountcastle because Mountcastle will not make the team out of spring training because of the service time thing. As soon as they can get extra year he'll be playing a comobination or LF/1B/DH for the orioles the rest of the year.

I'd be very surprise if Davis is on the team next year. It's obvious to everyone that he can't play anymore and next year there will be no room for him with Santander/Hays/Mountcasle/Stewart/Mancini/Nunez all needing regular playing time. Elias also mentioned that his situation will be looked into this offseason which is the hope i have that he was told he can eat the contract after this year.

Maybe, maybe not on Iglesias, depends on the money. While I don't think the Orioles are going to be contenders next year, I do think next year is a transition year where we start to see actual prospects on the team and he'll want to have as good a defense as he can have up the middle. 

I agree on Mountcastle.  I have him being called up on April 10th.

I'll be surprised if Davis is let go this off season but you could be right.

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As far as the logjam of COF/1B/DH I wonder if Núñez will have any trade value this offseason. I like him and he is young but seems to be the odd man out. Would be interested in RP prospects but not sure as to the quality in return.

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15 minutes ago, survivedc said:

As far as the logjam of COF/1B/DH I wonder if Núñez will have any trade value this offseason. I like him and he is young but seems to be the odd man out. Would be interested in RP prospects but not sure as to the quality in return.

My guess is Nunez will not have enough trade value to bring back something that Elias believers will help the O's in 2022/23.  Therefore he stays.

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While most of us would like to see Davis gone, I think there is a legitimate argument of keeping him through the 2019 season.  If the Orioles, Elias, sees 2020 as a transition year, then Davis on the roster even with expansion becomes counter productive.  He clearly can no longer contribute and clearly takes a spot that would be better used elsewhere.  Not to mention that extending the string keeps the Davis story front page and more importantly, fans a flame of doubt about just how limiting ownership continues to be for those running the show.  We will see, but I think Davis is quietly let go pretty soon after the completion of 2019.  And I would begin to have doubts regarding the rebuild if he is around for spring training 2020.  JMHO

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18 hours ago, wildcard said:

I agree on Mountcastle.  I have him being called up on April 10th.

I'll be surprised if Davis is let go this off season but you could be right.

I think he stays down longer than that. 

I genuinely think they want him to work on some things still. I have to think they want him to try to be a LF.  

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3 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I think he stays down longer than that. 

I genuinely think they want him to work on some things still. I have to think they want him to try to be a LF.  

But why not work on it at the ML level during a non-competitive season?  What is the downside?

Also, not as if LF  is a skilled position.  Spring training should be enough time to get him up to speed.

This is 100% service time.

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14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But why not work on it at the ML level during a non-competitive season?  What is the downside?

Also, not as if LF  is a skilled position.  Spring training should be enough time to get him up to speed.

This is 100% service time.

There's plenty of potential downside. Doesn't mean it wouldn't work out if he's called up now, just that there's some development risk with the huge jump in pitching talent he'd face followed by pressing, potentially abandoning any plate discipline due to said pressing, resulting in loss of confidence, etc. 

Also, you want to feel confident about where you play him in the field, and they clearly do not. 

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On 9/9/2019 at 9:22 AM, Tony-OH said:

Stewart in LF

Is Stewart’s D as bad as it looks so far? I don’t remember any comments about his defense, so have no idea how to judge his performance so far. Is he a defensive improvement on Smith?

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