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Luke-OH

How does my 2018 MLB draft community mock stack up?

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So I did a mock draft as the Orioles for Minor League Ball in 2018 pre-draft. 

It went 4 rounds.

My picks went like this as compared to the actual picks.

Logan Gilbert  vs Grayson Rodriguez   - IMO this is a toss-up, Rodriguez has developed and is better than he was when drafted while Gilbert got his Cape Cod velocity back as I expected and has performed extremely well also. 

Nico Hoerner vs Cadyn Grenier - My big win, Hoerner is the first 2018 draftee to make the majors and is a consensus top 100 prospect, I watched plenty of both of these guys pre-draft and it was pretty obvious Hoerner had a much better bat

Nick Dunn vs Blaine Knight - The Orioles win here, both these guys are college performers with some flaws, both have struggled in A+ ball. Knight has more raw talent, Dunn's power surge hasn't played as a pro.

Steven Hajjar vs Drew Rom - This is a hard one, Hajjar red-shirted at Michigan due to an injury (he priced himself out and ended up in college), so he's definitely behind Rom in developmental terms since Rom performed very well in A ball. Hajjar has more upside though, he throws harder than Rom (also a lefty) with a good breaking ball and has a bigger frame and more projectable build. 

So this was drafting against other MLB draft nerds some of the players - like Hoerner - weren't actually there when the Orioles picked. So these are the top players on my Top 50 preference list who were available at each draft slot, Siani got a 2M bonus, Alexander 500K in the 11th round, Gilbert 3.9M, Conine 1.35M. So 7.75M total, the Orioles spent 7.85M on their first four picks, so I think it's a fair comparison.

Logan Gilbert vs Grayson Rodriguez - same thoughts as above

Griffin Conine vs Cadyn Grenier - still a win for me IMO, but much closer, Conine has serious swing and miss issues but elite exit velocity and strong COF defense

Mike Siani vs Blaine Knight - Solid win for me, Siani plays solid CF defense, stole 45 bases, and held his own as a 19yo in full season ball. Still needs to develop power, but a better prospect than Knight

Blaze Alexander vs Drew Rom - very close, both performed well in full season ball starting the year as teenagers, Alexander has more tools than Rom has stuff, but Rom's performance was more impressive. 

 

How do you all think I did?

 

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Bonus: I drafted for the Brewers in the 2017 community mock, how do those picks stack up with the Brewers actual picks on the right?

Adam Haseley vs Keston Hiura - solid loss, my big regret was that I didn't trust my instincts and pick Hiura, I didn't trust myself as much at the time and went for the safe pick in Haseley. They are both good players but Hiura has a chance to be an impact guy and let other people's rankings sway me

Trevor Rogers vs Tristan Lutz pretty close loss currently, Lutz is considered the better prospect and can really hit, but Rogers has been performing and was always going to be a guy who'd take awhile. His LH velocity gives him plenty of ceiling

Quentin Holmes vs Caden Lemons Lemons didn't pitch in 2019 and hasn't played above rookie ball while Holmes was in full season ball but didn't hit a lick. Holmes played the majority of the season as a 19yo and is a cold weather toolsy type, so I think he might have the slight edge, but I'll call it a toss-up (fangraphs ranks them equally)

Bryce Montas de Oca vs KJ Harrison - strong loss, de Oca has been hurt and hasn't pitched since being drafted and Harrison is a solid role player prospect

Spencer Howard vs Brendan Murphy huge win, Murphy hasn't pitched since 2017 in rookie ball and Spencer Howard is a top 100 prospect who sits 95-97mph and had a 2.03 ERA and .83 WHIP between A+/AA

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EDIT: Misread your post initially. Anyway, I LOVE doing those sort of exercises, as I myself have done it often over the years for both the O's and Ravens. 

In 2018, I would have taken:

On 6/5/2018 at 1:12 PM, Greg Pappas said:

FWIW and for the record, I'll note who I would've taken at our picks. Naturally, I'm not privy to monetary demands, which, to be fair, is an important factor when choosing these players. I'll just do a few rounds. Anyway, here goes...

11. Matt Liberatore
37. Sean Hjelle (this pick after reading that Wilcox, Rocker, and Kloffenstein will not sign)
87. I like Pompey or De Sedas here. There are rumors that De Sedas is asking for a lot of money, however.

Kloffenstein did sign in the 3rd round for 2.5m with the Jays, just after our pick of Blaine Knight. It's unknown whether we were aware Kloffenstein would sign, or whether we would have paid him what it cost us to sign Grenier (in R2) and Knight (in R3) combined. 

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42 minutes ago, El_Duderino said:

Right, but Hoerner went well before the Os were back on the board. They never really had a crack at him.

I addressed this specifically in my post and explained it. I practically said those exact same words. 

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On 9/10/2019 at 10:54 AM, Greg Pappas said:

EDIT: Misread your post initially. Anyway, I LOVE doing those sort of exercises, as I myself have done it often over the years for both the O's and Ravens. 

In 2018, I would have taken:

Kloffenstein did sign in the 3rd round for 2.5m with the Jays, just after our pick of Blaine Knight. It's unknown whether we were aware Kloffenstein would sign, or whether we would have paid him what it cost us to sign Grenier (in R2) and Knight (in R3) combined. 

The old Liberatore vs Rodriguez debate. I think most “experts” will always try and rank Liberatore slightly higher than Rodriguez because they all criticized the O’s for “reaching” for Rodriguez. 

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4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The old Liberatore vs Rodriguez debate. I think most “experts” will always try and rank Liberatore slightly higher than Rodriguez because they all criticized the O’s for “reaching” for Rodriguez. 

Eh, I don't really buy that in this case. 

Liberatore is a lefty, has better mechanics, and more projection remaining, so I think there is a fair case for Liberatore then and now. It's really close though, Rodriguez is the better pitch at the moment, but no one really cares who is the better pitcher at 19 in low A ball. 

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13 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Eh, I don't really buy that in this case. 

Liberatore is a lefty, has better mechanics, and more projection remaining, so I think there is a fair case for Liberatore then and now. It's really close though, Rodriguez is the better pitch at the moment, but no one really cares who is the better pitcher at 19 in low A ball. 

I think the praise for Rodriguez has been pretty high.    Time will tell if he lives up to the praise.   

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